Mick Wallace leaning across into the camera shot when others are speaking. :lol:
Mick Wallace does his own thing
Sinn Fein lads love to say âletâs cut to the chaseâ.
Good discussion on VB tonight. I had a stark conversation with an individual today who has been fairly informed to date who suggests the stress tests could bring the whole house down. Past the point of no return stuff. Sounds frightening.
do you not think weâre past the point of no return already?
bones of 200 bn worth of debt at min 5 % interest every year = most of our income tax gone
the countryâs on an IO mortgage, about to find out what happens when you come off the teaser rate
Past the point of no return for Europe, not for us. The gist of the conversation I had was that the ECB could cut the cord and let us off. The stress testing may reveal holes simply too deep to bother filling and the cost starts to outweigh the benefits, even for Europe. Youâd really have to question how much more money they would be willing to commit.
When you look at it what are the chances of the banks ever returning to a position where they can start properly servicing businesses again? The foreign banks have been cherry picking but theyâre not going to get involved in this basket case of an economy in any serious way. Should Europe turn the tap offâŚwell then thatâs all she wrote. Game over.
Care to say that again without the jargon?
The stress testing the last time was a waste of time. An informed person was telling me that there is no way an international bank would come into Ireland at present as the ECB is lending to the 4 Irish state banks at a discounted level effectively propping them up with the state guaranteeing the debt. The market is artificial therefore at present. It needs decisive action ie close Anglo and INBS and merge the other two. Can see why an international bank like Standard Chartered wouldnt come into Ireland if it was a level playing field.
If Europe turn the tap off, the euro is over. If we left the euro but the euro remained (very little chance of this happening as if we leave then a rake of other countries would leave too) then we would truly be screwed as the punt would probably have the value of lira but the sovereign debt would still be in euros. To be honest I think there is no other option for Europe other than a structured default across the EU. Bondholders will be forced to take losses. The Germans have a choice of pumping money into the likes of Ireland or taking a hit with their own banks. The EU needs to accept that the ECB was critical to the collapse of some european economies. Its not fair or democratic that Irish taxpayers are paying bondholders that bet on the Irish banks and lost. To be honest the days of national central banks must come to an end if the European system is to survive and proper European regulation needs to implemented to regulate that system. Im kind of hoping for some common sense to emerge at EU level in the very near future or else it wont survive the year.
Maybe these âinformedâ people should spend their time talking to people who matter rather than no-marks in their early 20âs
They do. Thatâs how they become âinformedâ. You can have that one for free.
:lol: B) :lol: :lol:
:rolleyes:
Iâll value your opinion when you manage to stop leeching off the rest of us. Carry on.
your 2 paragraphs are not really related
on the ECB - theyâve 110 bn on deposit, plus theyâre holding a shitload of NAMA bonds courtesy of the Irish banks repoing everything thatâs not tied down
there isnât a whole lot of deposits left to replace as all the smart money has left the country.
in theory the deposits are temporarily sitting in irish banks until replaced by interest payments from performing loans. the 50 bn from the ICB will be the first to go here though, paddy honohan has his finger in the dike.
turning the tap off is no longer an option, the ECB have committed. the time to make that decision was 6 months ago when the deposit flow turned into a torrent. there was no way anyone could mistake that as anything other than a complete lack of confidence in the banking system. there was never going to be a quick fix.
ECB already have too much skin in the game, pulling out now (even if it were legally possible) would be great for ireland and terrible for the ECB.
it would raise the obvious question as to what happens greece, portugal or any other european country in financial difficulty for that matter, and probably serve to increase the perceived risks to the periphery. this is one instance where amputation will not prevent contagion.
also, since theyâve just devalued our currency what little hope we had of repaying our debts (i use the term "our " loosely) is gone out the window.
anyone that didnât have a mortgage with an irish-based bank is even more screwed than before.
I still think the perceived consequences of letting one bank fail, let alone a country, is seen as too great to risk, meaning austerity for us until our budget deficit and wage rates are at least average by european standards, followed by the ECB restructuring what we owe to a 100 year repayment schedule, at which point inflation takes care of it.
our magnificent banks are a different matter. weâll recap til theyâre viable (or at least, compliant with basel III) and the loans are sold for a song to anyone whoâll take them.
(which may be just as poor a deal for us as the proposed firesales of the semi-states)
after that, they may be bought out by someone who actually knows how to run a bank, possibly with a government guarantee to sweeten the deal.
I agree with you on them never lending in any productive way again, but they might be shrunk to a size whereby thereâs room for a new player to enter the domestic market.
weâre also in the firing line for a further 17.5 bn before the remainder of the banking bailout fund is called on. again, we backstop the whole deal.
Weâre like the black platoon in the south park movie, here to make sure nobody else gets hit.
casting us adrift would defeat the purpose of manoeuvring us to the front.
[quote=âMac, post: 276000â]
:rolleyes:
Iâll value your opinion when you manage to stop leeching off the rest of us. Carry on.[/quote]
thats a fucking belter of a post right there Mac.
nothing worse than a deluded spoofer who has never worked a day in his life and living off handouts from others trying to pass judgement on the hand that feeds him.
why is it the extreme socialist ideoligies always appeal most to those who dont actually work? have a think about that for a while WTB and get back me to thenâŚ
Ming is on the front of the Sun pledging to continue growing his own weed. Pretty sure I heard Vinny say heâd be on the show tonight too. Is it on on a Friday night?? Anyway, thatâs what I thought he said.
Good post if very pessimistic. Im hoping common sense will prevail in Europe. Lenihan gone is a bonus to our negotiating strategy too.
The one thing weâve learned in the last eighteen months is that the most pessimistic outlook is probably the most accurate.
Hmmmm, isnt that a bit of a foolish way to carry on? I like the cut of his gib, but statements like that cant help him get shit done youâd imagine.
It was the Star, and as was pointed out by someone on another thread he was asked the question repeatedly on a radio interview and he just answered it as politely as he could. As he once said himself âIâm not obsessed with drugs. Itâs the other politicians who canât stop talking about drugs. I just smoke them.â
Oh yea, fine, tell them you smoke a little, but dont know what admitting you grow it does. Maybe better to grow than to buy illegally imported I guess.