Just wondering would the previous owner know?
Well they’d know what it sold for but mightn’t know who bought it depending on what the Estate Agent told them. I’d assume if you hung around the church yard after Mass at the weekend you wouldn’t be long finding some local nosey know it all who could tell you.
1 Like
Why don’t you ask him
Cos its easier to ask a load of lads hiding behind printers than talk to people in the real world
1 Like
1 Like
There’s a few houses around us sold recently. All different circumstances.
And the poor cunt next door (ref coty thread), I assumed they’d (kids) have the house gutted in hours. But nothing seems to be happening there either.
I suppose these things take time.
93k houses a year we need according to the lefty headbangers at Davy Stockbrokers.
1 Like
They would have signed a contract they definitely know who they sold the house to
Housing supply is not a right or left wing issue. You’ll find supply denialists out there but they vary on the political spectrum.
In terms of need, I think we should pause and consider the ranges we hear.
It was just 4 years ago that the ESRI said we needed 28k houses per year. In 2015 they said just 25k a year were needed. Now it is 35k to 53k.
The Housing Commission suggested a range of 55k to 60k. So too have countless others.
I have seen ranges from 100k to 250k on the total housing shortfall in Ireland.
I haven’t read Davy’s report you mention but bear in mind Ireland was first in Europe per capita in building in 2023 with 33k homes. I am dubious that nearly 3 times that number is required annually.
All of these housing need numbers depends on your assumptions on your model. Things like immigration and housing obsolescence are hard to predict. Even household size is hard to predict- sure if we dropped our household sizes to Scandinavian levels of 1.9 per house from 2.7 then we’d need a shitload more houses in any model. But Ireland also does not allow for Scandinavian sized housing. And Ireland has the most under lived in housing stock in Europe- so whilst you could stick it into a model and get some mad number of housing need, it doesn’t really reflect reality.
The difference would be explained by the fact that we didn’t build 28k x 4 so the need has built up?
We did. We built 21k in 2021, 30k in 2022, 33k in 2023 and 31k in 2024.
It is entirely to do with the assumptions you plug in. Household size, natural population change, immigration and housing obsolesce are the key factors.
Ireland basically blew through the ESRI estimates on population (largely migration based) and that’s a big factor as they are housing needy people.
But the big factor that drives some of the more mental suggestions of housing need is household size. I actually think there is conflicting data even on this. The Housing Commission looked at it and basically said the CSO data showing 2.7 was 0.3 or so too high. But if you used the 2.7 and went for Scandinavian sized households of 2ish then you’d clearly be throwing out large numbers in your estimates.
There’s a difference too between home many house Ireland needs right now. And how many houses Ireland needs to build per year for x amount of years to bridge the gap and cover new demand. Say we naturally need 20k houses a year to replace old houses, house young people coming to the market etc. but we are 180k short. Then it’s 40k a year for nine years.
In other words I think the numbers could mean the same thing just saying it different because making up the shortfalls in a year is impossible. Does the housing completion rate capture only new houses or does it take into account vacant houses reoccupied. The dereliction grant seems to be getting good use around the place
Touch, pause and consider.
1 Like
Household size accounts for the historical shortfall in these estimates
Lol
The right want to make a buck out of housing and the left want to preserve the Victorian ambience of Monkstown
1 Like
I see the Israeli minister Cuntz wants us to house all the Palestinians. I wonder will Donald offer Doonbeg for a site
1 Like
CPO it
1 Like
It isn’t?
There is research from all over the shop questioning the need for supply and suggesting we have sufficient supply and if only we took back vacant units that we would be okay.
Lorcan Sirr recently wrote a piece on this, did you not read it?
2 Likes
Good piece here. Pretty clear that FFG were fully aware they were getting nowhere near 40k houses last year but knowingly lied/misled the public on it in the run up to the election.
The evidence is not in favour of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. To put it mildly. And this matters not only for the obvious reason – that it undermines trust and suggests they were happy to spin yarns to get re-elected. It also points to an underlying belief that Ireland is somehow on the right track on housing and that the voters are happy with this.