With the championship getting into full swing it might be useful to have 1 thread for GAA betting opinions.
Some strange ones this weekend. Obvious allegiance drawn to the Wexford games and while money will likely go down on the hurlers and the footballers it’s not something I’d advise as our footballers are far too short against a Westmeath team that if they click can do serious damage. And backing against Kilkenny hurlers won’t have had much profit over the last 5 or 10 years.
Limerick and Leitrim really interest me this weekend. I’m not sure if it’s the attraction of the underdog or something else.
I think the league campaign will stand to Limerick and it’s no harm having a team that gets used to winning. Division 2 is a rotten place to be but they did everything they needed. I saw Waterford in their league game against Wexford and wasn’t all that impressed. Saying that, Davy would have been working towards this weekend with Division 1 status intact. I couldn’t touch Waterford at 4/9, Limerick feel that they’ve something to prove after the shambles that was last year and I’d be happy to have a few quid on them at 9/4 or thereabouts.
Leitrim vs Roscommon - In simple terms, I could never trust Roscommon to carry the burden of being as short as 4/11 against any serious football team in this country. Take Donie Shine out of the team and you’ve an average bunch of players that somehow managed to fluke Connacht last year. I’ve only ever seen them in the flesh against Wexford in 2009 and any decent club side would run them close.
Cavan vs. Donegal - Donegal should be bankers I couldn’t touch them at 1/3 though. Unpredictable fuckers. Handicap betting of 3 points either way is of no interest. No bet.
Louth vs Carlow - Interesting game. Carlow completely written off. Neutral supporters may want Louth back in a Leinster final after last years fiasco. Louth have lost a lot of players but looked comfortable against Wexford in the league. Carlow have a few decent U21s (including a free taking midfielder whose name escapes me) who I hope are drafted into the senior team. Carlow are completely written off and while they’ll not likely win, I can see them running the handicap of 6 points (Powers) close.
Selections
Limerick 9/4
Leitrim 11/4
Carlow (+6) 11/10
€5 treble pays just under €128. Limerick Leitirm double pays just over 11/1.
Leitrim seem far too big alright. A victory under Sligo under their belt. I dare say if Sligo had won they would be 4/6 shots. A local derby should be tight and both teams going hell for leather.
Limerick will put it up to Waterford too. Davy’s teams never go that well early in the year and Limerick are waiting in the long grass.
Handicap betting of 3 points in either game isnt that attractive.
I’m happy to take Mac’s advice for the Limerick Leitrim double only. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and all that.
This thread is funny (but fair play to Mac for starting it). KIB willing to waste money on the GAA tipping of Mac. You couldn’t write it.
Mac you are betting for the sake of betting here, thats if you are betting and not just picking winners or “possible” long shot winners, i’m not clear on that. If you are actually betting (putting your hard earned on) on Limerick on the basis that you don’t like Waterfords odds then you are mental. Go for a run and think about it.
Limerick are going into this game like Cork, with the aim to win but the performance is paramount and the blooding of new players particularly important. Waterford may have one or two new lads used by the end of the game as well, but generally are a far more settled team. The Donal O’Grday factor would have me staying away from Waterford, but i just wouldn’t bet on the game.
Rosscommon are a better team than Leitrim, thats the long and short of it. If the attitude is right they will win. They seem to have a good management and i think betting against them is madness.
Your info on Louth is poor, they just got 2 of their better players (Mick Fanning and John O’ Brien) back from the States, they are awaiting clearence from headquarters but are expected to able to play. Louth will win this game, handy.
Donegal should win a tight game this weekend, but i wouldn’t be betting on it in any way like you said.
Was just going to make that point on Louth Kev - did they not get a couple of their better lads back so they’re not as short on talent as they had been?
I think I’ll take some of that Wexford footballers over 15.5.
Starting a thread on betting at 1.14am wouldn’t obviously be the smartest thing in the world, I’ll admit that Kev!
I’m looking at it purely from where I think a price is “wrong”. I think that both Letrim and Limerick are longer than what they should be. There’s obviously a good chance both of them are going to lose and that’s why neither of them are priced as favourites. I would make Limerick around 6/4 or 7/4 shots and Leitrim closer to 2/1. The Louth Carlow one is a fairly sketchy one and I didn’t realise Louth had some players back.
For what it’s worth, the past 2 weekends have had me only 1 result away from landing one of these. Last week I had Kerry (-7), Kildare, and Tyrone (-3) which was around 7/1 and the week before I had Wexford Footballers, Offaly Hurlers (+7), Barcelona, Armagh and Reading which would have paid 33/1 only for Reading to lose it. Decided to stick to only GAA after that!
I’ve also got running doubles and trebles on the 3 wexford teams as well. U21 hurlers were backed at 2/1 and 5/2, footballers at 4/6, and hurlers at 11/2. I’m already writing off the hurling part of this but if the footballers win I’ll still be up a decent amount.
I’d steer clear of the Wexford footballers overs until seeing if it absolutely pisses rain on Saturday as forecast. Could be tricky conditions to rack up a big score in football. Plus I don’t fully trust our footballers.
I went myself with a treble of Cork -12, Kerry -9, Kildare -3 and Tyrone -2, caught on last one. There was no value at all last week other than those really as they were all strong favourites.
There is money in the gAA as the summer goes on though. Read the local papers and what manager etc are saying, it helped me last year and paid for a trip to Barcelona! A Kerry Munster/Cork All-Ireland double was a great long term one. I’ve gone for Kildare/Cork this year.
I’ve been betting now for 2-3 years at any kinda of continuous rate and you really have to learn the hard way(well i did anyway). Thought yer man(name escapes me now) from the radios book was good, found it made sense but was helpful. I almost entirely stick to GAA & Rugby now.
I don’t believe you thought this one through before you posted it.
Waterford are Davy’s only inter county team, and under Davy they have never lost a first round Munster match or Munster semi final. In fact since Davy took over the only teams to have beaten Waterford in the championship are Tipp in a Munster Final and an All Ireland semi final and Kilkenny in an All Ireland final and an All Ireland semi final.
There is no evidence at all to suggest that Davy’s Waterford don’t go well early in the year and every evience to suggest that early matches in Munster are very much Davy’s thing.
They made hard work of a poor Clare team last year first day out.
The year before they drew with Limerick.
The year before Clare beat them[under Justin].
Anyway, I’m smelling a draw here. I’ll be taking Limerick +6 or so. Might sneak something on a draw though.
This isn’t really what you’re saying in the first post though Mac. Your argument was more that Roscommon and Waterford are too short so you’ll go for the other crowd in each case. One team being too short doesn’t imply the others are too long. That said, I am an appalling gambler so go with what is in your heart.
They won both ties cld and in truth never looked like losing either. The 2008 result to which you refer is an utter red herring.
The two wins over Clare in 2010 and over Limerick in 2009 were his two biggest wins over any opposition. So despite not setting the world on fire in either game these were his two biggest wins since taking over so I would repeat my assertion that there is no evidence that this team doesn’t go well early. It goes as well early as it does any other time. l[quote=“cluaindiuic, post: 600686”]
Yeah there is Dowdy you mong.
They made hard work of a poor Clare team last year first day out.
The year before they drew with Limerick.
The year before Clare beat them[under Justin].
Anyway, I’m smelling a draw here. I’ll be taking Limerick +6 or so. Might sneak something on a draw though.
[/quote]
The “win” in 2009 you refer to was after a replay.
In the first game they scored 0-11. Do you think they’d win this weekend scoring 0-11?
Waterford manager Davy Fitzgerald wasn’t raving about the quality either. “Glad to get another chance,” said Fitzgerald. "We played a great first half and we were totally in control, I thought we could have been further ahead.
“But when a team gets momentum on you like that, it’s hard to stop it. Our second half performance was not acceptable, not good enough. Limerick should have won in the end, to be honest.”