Applying the same numeric principals as last year and the rule that says HOTY almost always comes from the All-Ireland winner then you need to look at the overall betting.
Kilkenny after yesterday are big favourites.
The odds say Kilkenny are a ~55% chance to win the All Ireland.
So let’s look at the top 5 Kilkenny players listed above:
Power 13/2 - Coming back from knee cartilage injury. That’s not fun.
Walsh 8/1- Questionable form in league, tends to turn it on come Championship. Former winner.
Shefflin 14/1 - Coming back form 3rd major injury in 5 seasons. Former winner.
Fennelly 14/1 - Reigning HOTY. Injured yesterday.
Larkin 20/1 - Excellent League campaign. Captain. Former winner.
The best value there is Larkin for me. He has become the focal point of the Kilkenny attack at full forward. If he gets a run on the full back, it can be carnage. If Kilkenny are 55% chance for the All-Ireland, Larkin should be bigger than 4.7% for HOTY.
Kilkenny fans would like Richie Power to win one as they feel he deserves one.
One other important thing regards the Kilkenny midfield. Kilkenny seem to play their midfielders in two specific roles.
One is defensive: Their job is to be available for short passes from the backs when they are trying to clear. Michael Fennelly did this job last year in all games apart from the All Ireland when Michael Rice did this.
One is more offensive. TJ Reid played here mostly last year. Michael Fennelly played this role in the All-Ireland final.
The player who plays the defensive role tends to be in the game a lot more. If you look at scoring from An Moltoir you’ll see that Fennelly racked up huge plays and scores from here in the early part of last year. Michael Rice did the same in the All Ireland final.
In fact, perfect examples of these roles can be seen in the two goals Kilkenny scored in the All-Irealnd final last year.
The first was the offensive midfielder supporting the forwards.
The second was a typical passage of play of the defensive midfielder. Tipp drop in a free, Walsh gets the ball in the full back line and clears to the half back position where Rice is waiting to start an attack.
Whoever plays in the defensive role for Kilkenny has a massive job and if they do it successfully they will be in with a shout for HOTY. The problem is, both Kilkenny midfielders are currently dealing with injuries and who is going to play which role. Something to keep an eye on, particularly if it’s Rice playing the defensive role.
Some other questions:
Are former winners less likely to win again? Is there a bias against them and toward new winners?
If Kilkenny were to win this year, is there a chance of Shefflin being a sentimental pick?
It’s hard to pick players from elsewhere, Munster is just wide open.
Tipp without Corbett lack a cutting edge up front. They need to find one and quickly. If you fancy Tipp to go all the way then Padraig Maher and Noel McGrath are your bets. Brendan Maher has value if he can regain 2010 form. Callinan, although talented, can’t be trusted when it matters.
Cork have plenty of questions to answer after yesterday. Lehane… 50/1
Clare and Limerick will both take beating but will . Colin McGrath, YHOTY 15/2
Waterford will do well to match their semi-final places in recent years. In the past there has been value in Mullane/Brick back to lay.
If Dublin can get all their players fit and well they could become a factor. Keaney, Rushe, Sutcliffe all 25/1+.
Nobody in their right mind can trust Galway to do anything when it matters. Canning 14/1 if you trust Galway or think he can do a Shanahan. I don’t.
"Nobody in their right mind can trust Galway to do anything when it matters " :lol:
Larkin looks like great value. He seems to be getting better with age and as cluaindiuic or whoever wrote it says, he can cause carnage in his FF position. But he also tends to bring the rest of the forward line into things as well, he’s not your traditional glory hunting FF, he’s turned into a very intelligent player who takes the right options at the right time. Hopefully he’ll also do very well in his leaving cert.
Michael Rice is probably the value bet, he is a very underrated and consistent hurler for Kilkenny who has been improving year on year. Shane Bourke at 25/1 is madness, he will do well get his place for Tipp and will struggle to make an impact when space is at a premium come August/September
Rice is a tricky one. I’d bet on him if he plays in the role I outlined above and if his injury goes away. If he is half forward he is likely to be judged on what he scores rather than what he contributes which is unfair but the nature of how forwards are judged. Perfect example is Bonnar Maher for Tipp. Hugely important player for them. Not sure if his odds are even listed.
There are a few lads there with crazy odds. Matt Ruth for example. Perfect kind of player to get starts in the league and be a squad player. I wouldn’t expect him to start for Kilkenny in the Championship with everyone available. Like Matt Ruth same odds as Mullane, Richie Hogan and Horgan and shorter odds than Brendan Maher, come on…
Rice is far more of a scoring threat than Bonner Maher though and was excellent at half forward in Leinster last year before swapping with TJ Reid and dropping back to midfield.
While Brendan Maher is no doubt a class act he has been a long way off the form of 2010 since he returned from injury last July. 28/1 is about right, if Tipp are to have a big season they will need him firing on all cylinders
I like Antrim -4 against Westmeath. 10/11 Powers.
Antrim should be far too good for Westmeath.
The Loughgiel lads [read Watson] are back.
Westmeath lost their League final to Carlow by 5. Antrim are a step above that and have played and beat [size=1]marginally[/size] better teams in their league campaign without the Loughgiel lads[read Watson].
Id be with you on this. Antrim are on a far more serious upward curve than Westmeath and should have enough for them. Of the 2 games this weekend id be fairly sure of Antrim winning - the Carlow Laois game is harder to quantify. If Carlow have progressed enough they should be able to put one over on Laois but dont let league form fool us and in that regard Laois will have learnt a lot from the league!
After a 4 day conference with Juhniallio that was synergised and condensed into a smaller timeframe over the weekend we have come to an agreement on the following statement:
The “2012 GAA Betting Thread” thread, henceforth known as the former, and the “Average Punters Punts” thread henceforth known as the latter have agreed to a union.
The former will be held under the latter’s banner and as such will be seen as a haven for average punters to post average GAA punts for the 2012 season.
The latter has been a remarkable success in allowing punters to share their tips with others punters without the unseemly sniping and critical overtones of petulant “wise after the event” merchants** and both thread owners are confident that not only will this lead to more average punting but we would also call upon punters of other upcoming sporting events e.g. we would like to extend an offer to chewy louie the proprietor of the “Euro 2012 Betting thread” thread to join under the umbrellas of Average Punting Threads™.
Also, whomever decides to create an Olympics Betting Thread, such as it is, will be open to discuss terms with APT™.
We would also call on average punters to be more positive in their responses to unsuccessful average punters. Using blandly patronising yet positive slogans such as “It got away from you there at the end” and “Better luck next time, you mong” will carry favour with APT™ overlords.
Happy average punting in the former!
[size=1]**You may be mocked mercilessly if you use the term “bet of the year” and lose. See Anto.[/size]