Habye Liam.
Christie seemed to just kick the ball away after the penalty appeal. An awful effort by a pro.
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Martin OâNeill is unfortunately wrong when he says itâs still in the teamâs hands. It isnât.
The Irish are currently on 10 points in the second place league with a goal difference of just +1.
Even with two wins, I believe the odds are against them getting a play-off, because:
i) I think Greece will win in Cyprus, thus meaning the second place team in Group H will have a minimum of 13 points with a goal difference of at least +4 (Greece play Gibraltar at home in their final match). Even if the Greeks donât win, a Bosnian win over Belgium and a win in Estonia would put them onto 14 points.
ii) I think Slovakia will probably get a point in Glasgow, meaning they finish on 13 points in the second place league with a goal difference of +5. Even if Scotland win, they can then get to 14 points in the second place league by beating Slovenia away.
None of the other groups offer a realistic chance of a second place team finishing with a worse record than the Irish.
It seems like a ridiculously convoluted system.
Itâs very simple and very fair
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I think every group should stand on its merits.
Youâre talking to a fella that told us all to buy AIB shares before the bank crash.
Pinch of salt with that, mate.
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One more Hail Mary scenario for the road.
In Group E, Denmark and Montenegro are both on 16 overall points behind leaders Poland. Both are on 10 points in the second place league.
Montenegro play Denmark in the next fixture. That would need to be a draw, bringing both onto 11 points.
The last fixtures are Poland v Montenegro and Denmark v Romania.
Both Monetengro and Denmark would need to fail to win, leaving the second place team on 12 points in the second place league.
So Scotland beating Slovakia and losing to Slovenia is what we want? Not entirely unlikely surely?
Fuck this shit.
Fuck it.
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Scotland beating Slovakia and drawing in Slovenia would do. Itâs certainly possible, but I wouldnât want to be betting on it.
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Are the jocks any good ?
ahahhhahahhahahahhahahahhahahhahahahahh
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give it up to fuck, jesus they must be in the bottom 20 or 30 teams in the world at this stage
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I thought we were very good and really unlucky tonight.
Such is life and sport.
The dog will bark and the caravan keeps moving.
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They are improving. I wouldnât put it past them to beat Slovakia.
The thing is that if they do that, theyâll be playing a Slovenia team which is highly likely to already be eliminated and could well roll over for them.
The Bosnia/Greece group might be the best chance, I think, but then again I wouldnât want to be betting on it coming up trumps for us.
Cyprus are currently on 10 points in the group, just three behind Greece, and while they cannot qualify, youâd hope they might have it in them to take a point off the Greeks. But then again they might do a Eurovision-style favour to the Greeks and roll over.
Belgium have already qualified. Youâd wonder how much theyâll try in Bosnia. Should the Bosnians beat the Belgians theyâll surely see out the group with a win in Estonia.
Both the Scotland/Slovakia group and the Bosnia/Greece group finish on October 8th.
Wales v Eire is on October 9th. Itâs very possible, probably more likely, that the Irish will go into that match with no possible path to a play-off.
Iâve worked out two more possible Hail Mary scenarios in Group I and Group A.
in Group I, all of these would have to happen:
Turkey beat Iceland.
Turkey then fail to win in Finland in the final match.
Ukraine fail to beat Croatia.
That would put Iceland in second place on 13 points and a best case goal difference of +2.
If Turkey beat Iceland by one goal and the other two things happen, a two goal victory against Wales would put the Irish into a play-off.
If Turkey beat Iceland by two goals and the other two things happen, a one goal victory would be sufficient for the Irish.
In Group A, there is a very convoluted scenario which could leave both Sweden and Holland with inferior records to the Irish.
It would depend on Luxembourg finishing bottom of the group - thatâs currently very close with Belarus.
Sweden are currently on 10 points in the second place league with a goal difference of +3.
If one is to presume Luxembourg finish bottom of the group, the Dutch have 10 points and a -2 goal difference in the second place league.
Were the Swedes or Bulgaria to put a load of goals past the Luxembourgers, meaning Luxembourg finish bottom of the group, and the Dutch record a one goal victory in Belarus, and then the Dutch beat Sweden by exactly two goals, both the Dutch and the Swedes would finish on 13 points and a goal difference of +1.
That would mean a one goal win over Wales would be enough for the Irish.
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Thatâs lots of chances. One of thems bound to come up.
Walesâ result in Georgia is very likely to be irrelevant to the Irish.
But howâs this for a scenario.
Bosnia fail to beat both Belgium and Estonia, or else lose to Belgium by 2 goals more than they beat Estonia, leaving them on a maximum 10 points in the first case and 11 with best case 0 goal difference in the second case.
Greece lose to Cyprus, leaving them on 10.
Wales fail to win in Georgia.
Eire beat Moldova.
A draw in the final match then gets the Irish a play-off.
We were in the driving seat 4 games ago but have fucked it up. Very, very sad as we are unlikely to have a chance as good as this for a long time to qualify for the World Cup.