@Sidney, @GeoffreyBoycott et al - how do you see things panning out in Ulster?
A bit of a changing of the guard in Sinn Féin following Martin McGuinness’ passing and the likes of Pat Doherty and Gerry Kelly bowing out. Can John Finucane take north Belfast?
I haven’t really zoned in on it yet. Kelly gave Dodds a big scare in 2010 so much so that the UUP didn’t run a candidate to split the Unionist vote in 2015? I’m not sure whether the UUP are running a candidate this time around. I don’t think Alban McGuinness is running either so Finucane could make further inroads into the SDLP vote.
Would also be interested to read your views and those of @RaymondCrotty on the state of play in Scotland.
@RaymondCrotty is a beaten docket on this front. His field of expertise now is more about the cost of domestic staff in Vietnam.
I was having a look at the state of play in Scotland over the weekend. There appears to be a serious Conservative and Unionist Party resurgence. How many seats it will claim is not clear. I think even the most optimistic SNP rabble rouser is resigned to a ‘blunami’ in the Borders plus likely 1-2 gains in Aberdeen region. Question is will some of the posher seats around Glasgow and Edinburgh turn blue. There’s a few seats around Stirling and Pertshire that are close as well, but probably ultimately, 'close, but no cigar;.
Tories will get 9 or 10 in Scotland.
He gets mixed up between what he would like to happen and what will happen.
Full list of candidates. Please read them as I went to the trouble of researching and typing them all out myself.
Belfast East
Bobby Beck, Independent
Sheila Bodel, Conservatives
Seamas de Faoite, SDLP
Hazel Legge, UUP
Naomi Long, Alliance
Georgina Milne, Green Party
Mairead O’Donnell, Sinn Fein
Gavin Robinson, DUP
Belfast North
Nigel Dodds, DUP
John Finucane, Sinn Fein
Martin McAuley, SDLP
Sam Nelson, Alliance
Malachi O’Hara, Green Party
Gemma Weir, The Workers Party
Belfast South
Clare Bailey, Green Party
Paula Bradshaw, Alliance
Michael Henderson, UUP
Emma Little Pengelly, DUP
Alasdair McDonnell, SDLP
Mairtin O’Muilleoir, Sinn Fein
Clare Salier, Conservatives
Belfast West
Tim Atwood, SDLP
Conor Campbell, The Workers Party
Gerry Carroll, People Before Profit Alliance
Sorcha Eastwood, Alliance
Paul Maskey, Sinn Fein
Frank McCoubrey, DUP
East Antrim
Stewart Dickson, Alliance
Mark Logan, Conservatives
Margaret McKillop, SDLP
Oliver McMullan, Sinn Fein
John Stewart, UUP
Sammy Wilson, DUP
East Londondree
Gregory Campbell, DUP
Richard Holmes, UUP
Chris McCaw, Alliance
Dermot Nicholl, Sinn Fein
Stephanie Quigley, SDLP
Liz St Clair-Legge, Conservatives
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Constituency
Noreen Campbell, Alliance
Tom Elliott, UUP
Mary Garrity, SDLP
Michelle Gildernew, Sinn Fein,
Tanya Jones, Green Party
Foyle
John Doherty, Alliance
Mark Durkan, SDLP
Shaun Harkin, People Before Profit Alliance
Elisha McCallion, Sinn Fein
Gary Middleton, DUP
Lagan Valley
Robbie Butler, UUP
Pat Catney, SDLP
Jeffrey Donaldson, DUP
Aaron McIntyre, Alliance
Ian Nickels, Conservative
Jonny Orr, Independent
Jacqui Russell, Sinn Fein
Mid Ulster
Keith Buchanan, DUP
Mark Glasgow, UUP
Francie Molloy, Sinn Fein
Malachy Quinn, SDLP
Fay Watson, Alliance
Newry and Armagh
Mickey Brady, Sinn Fein
Jackie Coade, Alliance
William Irwin, DUP
Justin McNulty, SDLP
Sam Nicholson, UUP
North Antrim
Timothy Gaston, TUV
Cara McShane, Sinn Fein
Jackson Minford, UUP
Declan O’Loan, SDLP
Patricia O’Lynn, Alliance
Ian Paisley, DUP
North Down
Steven Agnew, Green Party
Alex Easton, DUP
Sylvia Hermon, Independent
Therese McCartney, Sinn Fein
Caoimhe McNeill, SDLP
Andrew Muir, Alliance
Gavan Reynolds, Independent
Frank Shivers, Conservative
South Antrim
Paul Girvan, DUP
Declan Kearney, Sinn Fein
Neil Kelly, Alliance
Danny Kinahan, UUP
Roisin Lynch, SDLP
South Down
Diane Forsythe, DUP
Chris Hazzard, Sinn Fein
Harold McKee, UUP
Andrew McMurray, Alliance
Margaret Ritchie, SDLP
Strangford
Kellie Armstrong, Alliance
Ricky Bamford, Green Party
Joe Boyle, SDLP
Claire Hiscott, Conservatives
Carole Murphy, Sinn Fein
Mike Nesbitt, UUP
Jim Shannon, DUP
Upper Bann
Doug Beattie, UUP
Tara Doyle, Alliance
Declan McAlinden, SDLP
John O’Dowd, Sinn Fein
David Simpson, DUP
West Tyrone
Barry Brown, Citizens Independent Social Thought Alliance
Thomas Buchanan, DUP
Aliicia Clarke, UUP
Stephen Donnelly, Alliance
Ciaran McClean, Green Party
Daniel McCrossan, SDLP
Barry McElduff, Sinn Fein
Really only seven of the 18 constituencies hold much interest as the rest look foregone conclusions.
I expect Dodds will hold North Belfast. UUP aren’t running a candidate and even thoughthe SDLP are running a placeholder candidate, it’s hard to see Finucane have enough.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew will take back Fermanagh/South Tyrone from Tom Elliott however.
Naomi Long might just take back East Belfast for the Alliance from Gavin Robinson. Very, very hard to call that one but it’ll be decided by a few hundred either way, I suspect.
South Belfast is a difficult one to predict. Alasdair McDonnell is bookies’ favourite to hold on for the SDLP but I suspect he might be nudged out by the DUP this time, with the Alliance and Sinn Fein’s Mairtin O’Muilleoir eating into his vote. But the rather attractive DUP candidate Emma Little Pengelly couldn’t even win a seat in the assembly back in March so who knows if she has the vote pulling power necessary to win. I wouldn’t even rule out an Alliance win here.
The SDLP are in desperate battles to hold off Sinn Fein in Foyle and South Down.
South Antrim sees a similar dynamic on the unionist side with the UUP’s Danny De Burgh-Kinahan the party’s best chance of holding onto a seat ahead of the DUP.
Tories send Shivers down Long Legge.
There I read it all.
This is mad:
Related piece:
Another genius Marina Hyde column:
Outstanding dig at @ChocolateMice, @Fitzy and Game of Thrones loving freaks.
“The central premise of the spin room is that voters are too stupid to understand the debate they’ve just watched on their tellies, and need to have it filtered through leading members of the arseoisie. Which is to say: spin doctors, journalists, attack dog politicians, and various other people who ejaculate before the title sequence of Game of Thrones is even finished.”
I’m pretty sure I whack off post full episode, mate.
Lovely video with James McClean and Elisia McCallion up in Derry on twitter there. 
I saw Conlan, Barnes and Brolly endorsing John Finucane over the last few hours too.
SDLP wiped out.
Sinn Fein have Foyle and South Down, DUP have South Belfast as I predicted.
UUP saying SDLP’s vote has collapsed in Fermanagh-South Tyrone.
This bodes well for our Michelle regaining this seat.
No Taig representation in Westminster.
Except for Corbyn, Jeremy (Lab)
DUP take South Antrim from UUP. A good night for them. They’ll hold North and East Belfast too.
UUP look like losing both their seats.