Abortion result hub

Joe_Player · May 23, 2018, 9:28am

For Friday

balbec · May 23, 2018, 5:54pm

Could ye not keep all the shite in the one thread?

artfoley · May 23, 2018, 7:20pm

Abort the thread

dodgy_keeper · May 23, 2018, 8:16pm

Every thread deserves the right to life.

artfoley · May 23, 2018, 8:30pm

Our DB, our choice.

Julio_Geordio · May 23, 2018, 9:12pm

Will the abortions not all have the same result Joe?

caulifloweredneanderthal · May 23, 2018, 10:22pm

There’s always a results hub pal. It’s a little tradition of @Joe_Player

myboyblue · May 24, 2018, 9:12am

Has @Tassotti come #hometovote

Joe_Player · May 24, 2018, 9:34am

We will break down the results and look ahead on this thread

Special_Olympiakos · May 24, 2018, 9:48am

This thread will dissolve in approximately 12 weeks

Horsebox · May 25, 2018, 12:36pm

A lot of No voters in liberal Beggars Bush which was surprising.

cc @Joe_Player

Fagan_ODowd · May 25, 2018, 3:50pm

Historically in these social change referenda the number of voters voting for the conservative option has been at a high of 841,000 in 1983 and at a low of 572,000 in 1992. In the last referendum that I remember being as vicious and divisive as this divorce in 1996, 809,000 voted for the conservative option. For the same sex referendum the no side numbered 734,000, although that was less divisive than this.

841,000 was a lot of votes in 1983 when the turn out was 1.25 million, but the turnout in 2015 was 1.95 million and that was only a 60% turnout (which was historically high) If what we are hearing today about turnout is correct, it will at least match 2015 and there are going to be at least 2 million votes cast.

I think there is a hard core of 750,000 no voters inthe country, and because the campaign has been so vicious on both sides they will probably get the no vote up to 850-900,000. I think therefore on a turnout of anything above 55% the yes side will carry and below that number yes is in trouble.

There have been plenty of referenda where the turnout has been below 55%. However there was a 62% turnout for the 1996 divorce referendum, 60.8 for the 1986 divorce referendum and 60.5 for the same sex. It sounds like we are in that territory again and if there is a 2million plus vote I can’t see where the no side can get the votes, because they haven’t been there in the past. On that basis I think this will go through 55-45.

johnnysachs · May 25, 2018, 5:03pm

Good analysis. Thanks

Portumna_Bridge · May 25, 2018, 5:16pm

Boards has an exit poll thread running all day on this, it’s currently breaking 80/20 to yes, about 1500 have voted…

johnnysachs · May 25, 2018, 5:20pm

They are fucking idiots though.

artfoley · May 25, 2018, 5:22pm

Boards

maroonandwhite · May 25, 2018, 5:26pm

Would ye support mandatory voting like thy have in oz?

anon61956325 · May 25, 2018, 5:40pm

@Robert_Emmet called it at 54% two nights ago…Great to see two of the forums admired posters so aligned.

Juhniallio · May 25, 2018, 5:46pm

Yes. Absolutely.

anon26343222 · May 25, 2018, 6:09pm

Won’t be that much of a victory.