I donât think you can be sure how radical the change would be. As you said earlier, this is clearly a secular revolution and my gut feeling is that those who would come to power would believe that hostility towards Israel wouldnât be an entirely practical position so would probably go for an uneasy peace. For their part, a sensible Israeli government (probably not this one) would realise that they now need to keep Egyptian popular opinion onside, so would be more willing to genuinely compromise. I donât think that the White House would feel confident enough in thier powers right now to try to determine the outcome in Cairo, so I think their best bet will be to leave well enough alone and hope for a moderate outcome from public opinion there.
Suileman was being widely touted as the next head of the executive which would strongly indicate continued US control. Similarly the playing up of the the Islamist role in the uprising in the US establishment media outlets (The post etc) is a clear indication of what elite US thinking is. There is absolutely nothing in recent history to support the notion that the US will let Egypt slip from their grasp. And while this event is also unique in recent history it doesnât alter US policy in the region. There is nothing the Americans fear more than independent arab states.
As for Israel, much of the same applies. While they may welcome the opportunity to help a friendly man rise to power, they know what a popular government means. A return to the days of Nasser. Every opinion poll supports this. They would crush the Egyptians militarily but itâs hard to know if they would want such a scenario to arise. I doubt it to be honest.
Either way the middle east seems seems be prone to chain reactions which bring about things that no one saw coming. Operation Ajax and all that.
Big time. Iâm really only postulating. I marginally think that what Iâm saying is the most likely outcome, but anything could happen really. I think the main difference between our viewpoints is that you think the Americans believe they can determine the outcome from here. Iâd say theyâre not so sure of that themselves and might be inclined to see how things transpire for a couple of months anyway. So many variables though.
Being gunned down sounds pretty fucking painful. Desperate scenes.
Braz,
you present what you said pretty well and i agree with most of your points,
the link below ( data not verified) is a list of all US aid from 2001-2006
http://www.vaughns-1-pagers.com/politics/us-foreign-aid.htm
as you can see one third of all US aid goes to Israel and Egypt, so now based on this precedent i wonder who controls the âelectionâ of the next Egyptain governement ?? B)
The Obama admisntration have made it very clear to Egypt that âpolitical stabilityâ is necessary to ensure they continue to get this level of support, you can be damn sure that the Egyptian military will very soon have a nce little junta set up in Cairo, there will be elections but TBH it dosent really matter, the army played a blinder during the 18 day riots by refusing to really committ to a side , they knew that the rioters were so disorganised that they coulld not present a political alternative so they poised themselves to take over, Im quite sure Omar Suleiman is giving guarantees that we see a quick return to stability, so much so that he Egyptian military have wasted no time this week in continuing to build their wall at Rafah between Gaza and Egypt.
the romantic notion that the Egyptians will elect some governement who will give 2 fingers to the US aid is folly, 40% of the population of 80 million survive on < 2 USD / per, i dont think that cutting off aid is an option.
someone made the point to me that all these uprisongs in the Magrheb ( plus Bahrain) were similar to the uprisings in eastern europe in the 80âs , i disagree however as the people in the old eastern bloc saw their capitalist neighbours and thought that this was a feasible option in comparison to their socialist rule, the arabs however dont know what they want, they want rid of their dictators for supposed " freedom" but to be honest they have no idea what do do with it and it is this void that is the perfect environement for a totalitarian islamic regieme can take over âconvincingâ people to put their faith in Allah whilst the corruption continuesâŚ
The Gaza Strip is bad news to Egypt, they have traditionally seen it as israels problem and is nothing to do with them , people seem to forget that their military shoot on sight anyone trying to jump the border, right now it would be suicide for the regieme in egypt to engage in any dialogue with Hamas as all it will do is strengthen the position of the Islamic Brotherhood in Cairo, Hamas are bad news in the middle east, Jordan, the lebanaeese and all the north african states want nowt to do with them for obvious reasons such as their links to al quada.
the reaction in israel to what is going on in cairo is muted enough, they know damn well that the protestors have had their day in the sun and to be honest its within both sides intersts to retain a peace coexistence with each other as the both have a healty enough respect for what each side is capable of if provoked⌠bad news for the lads in gaza howver who will just remain more and more isolated as long as Hamas stay in power
I suppose I should probably clarify by saying that the Americans are not opposed to democracy as long as it is democracy in their interests. Therefore the reforms necessary to appease a popular majority can quite possibly be introduced without essential* control being yielded.
I am inclined to see it this was because of two main reasons. Firstly, the suggestion that Suileman is going to take power - which is the equivalent of Bush have resigned to be replaced by Cheney. Secondly, the deliberate effort by US commentators to cast the revolution in a negative light, but more importantly to fragment the opposition in a fashion that didnât apply elsewhere.
Even in the UK, The Telegraph for example, ran a cartoon showing protesters being directed by islamic extremists. It is a quite deliberate and obviously planned effort to insert the spectre of islamic terrorism into a scenario in which it does not belong. What this suggests, is that when the swollen ranks of the protesters eventually subside to the smaller organised and active centre which is at the heart of the whole thing, the discourse has already been coloured with this notion of muslim extremism. This can and will be used as justification for âsternerâ measures against the hardcore of the opposition. I think this paves the way for continued US control, as much as I hope I am wrong.
*As in control over issues regarded as critical to US interests.
libya is on the verge of anarachy.
BBC world service twitter feed is keeping me up to date and some of the tweets are pretty harrowingâŚ
1227: One Libyan demonstrator, Yasmin, is outside the Libyan embassy in Dubai. She has been telling the BBC World Service about her conversations with relatives in Tripoli and Benghazi: âThe situation at the moment in Tripoli is that there are planes flying, they are shooting randomly in the streets, they are using anti-aircraft weapons. He [Gaddafi] sent mercenaries: People from Chad, from Ghana, now they are saying thereâs Eastern Europeans coming in as well. They are coming into peopleâs homes; they are attacking, raping and killing. Theyâve been killing doctors in the hospitals.â
1402: In an interview with BBC Arabic TV, the Libyan writer Goma El-Gamaty says: âLibya is in a state of madness. Gaddafi has gone mad. He wants to burn the land. He is imposing a curfew by force. African mercenaries who speak English and French are wandering in the city in armoured vehicles. They are shooting anyone they see in the street, and there are other cars behind them to collect these dead bodies and they take [them] to a military base called âmaatekaâ to burn them there.â
1351: Ibrahim Dabbashi, Libyaâs deputy ambassador to the UN who on Monday urged the international community to protect Libyans from âgenocideâ, tells BBC Arabic TV he hopes members of the UN Security Council will take action to protect Libyan civilians: âThe Security Council will meet today. We will try to issue a statement on making Libya a no-fly zone in order to stop the raids on Libyan cities, to stop the mercenaries the regime is bringing from abroad, and to stop weapons from reaching this dictatorial regime.â
1315: A doctor in Tripoli, who does not wish to be named, tells the BBC: âIâm a medical doctor and Iâm working in a hospital. Iâve seen a lot, a lot of people dying in front of me. They force us to treat the regime or militia rather than our people. And there is a lot, a lot of dead people. It was a massacre, especially yesterday and the day before.â
1220: The Libyan side of Egyptâs border in Musaid is controlled by men armed with clubs and Kalashnikov assault rifles opposed to Col Gaddafi, a Reuters correspondent at the scene reports
1215: Dr Ali al-Essawi, until Monday the Libyan ambassador to India, was one of the first to resign from his post in the wake of the uprising in his country. He tells the BBC World Service what he knows about events in Libya: âWell the latest information is that there is using of aircraft and helicopters and firing at the protesters on the ground, and using the foreign mercenaries to scare the families back home behind the protesters; they are scaring the families of the protesters because they stay alone⌠they go back and kill the wives and children and women in the houseâŚâ
obviosuly israel encourage the growth of democracy in the region 
0926: The Israeli ambassador to the UK, Ron Prosor, giving the protests a cautious welcome, says they will hopefully usher democracy in the Middle East: âWe hope for the best and anticipate the worst. I think what is unravelling in the Arab world is amazing. At the end of the day, if this would lead to democratic structures in this region, which is so volatile, itâs positive for everyone.â
the russians meanwhile prefer the dictatorship model but at least medvedev knows the score
1203: Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has warned the unrest in the Middle East could bring fanatics to power and lead to decades of unrest, the Interfax news agency is reporting
Get the fuck out of Libya now and stop killing innocent people you cunt
updates will appear on bebo later
A ranting Muammar Gaddafi went on Libyan TV today vowing to fight on and die a âmartyrâ in the face of violent protests that are tearing the country apart.
He called on his supporters to take back the streets, shouting and pounding his fist in a furious speech.
Gaddafi, swathed in brown robes and turban, spoke from a podium set up in the entrance of a bombed out building that appeared to be his Tripoli residence hit by US airstrikes in the 1980s and left unrepaired as a monument of defiance.
Shouting, he declared himself âa warriorâ and proclaimed, âLibya wants glory, Libya wants to be at the pinnacle, at the pinnacle of the world.â
âI am a fighter, a revolutionary from tents ⌠I will die as a martyr at the end.â
The speech, which appeared to have been taped earlier, was aired on a screen to hundreds of supporters massed in Tripoliâs central Green Square.
He proclaimed, âLibya wants glory, Libya wants to be at the pinnacle, at the pinnacle of the world.â
At times the camera panned out to show a towering gold-coloured monument in front of the building, showing a fist crushing a fighter jet with an American flag on it â a view that also gave the strange image of Gaddafi speaking alone from behind a podium in the buildingâs dilapidated lobby, with no audience in front of him.
âI have not yet ordered the use of force, not yet ordered one bullet to be fired ⌠when I do, everything will burn,â he said.
He called on supporters to take to the streets to attack protesters. âYou men and women who love Gaddafi âŚget out of your homes and fill the streets,â he said. âLeave your homes and attack them in their lairs ⌠Starting tomorrow the cordons will be lifted, go out and fight them.â
âFrom tonight to tomorrow, all the young men should form local committees for popular security,â he said, telling them to wear a green armband to identify themselves. âThe Libyan people and the popular revolution will control Libya.â
Tripoli has been torn by two nights of bloodshed as pro-Gaddafi militiamen cracked down on protesters. Across the country, at least 250 people have been killed in a week of unrest.
Gadaffi is having a bad day.
Not sure about that. Heâs giving the impression of someone that is taking some fairly heavy duty drugs. I suspect heâs quite enjoying himself at the moment.
This trip is turning bad though.
âI am not going to leave this land,â Gaddafi vowed in a live broadcast on state TV. âI will die as a martyr at the end ⌠I shall remain, defiant. Muammar is leader of the revolution until the end of time.â
Heâs starting to sound like Justin McCarthy
Talks of petrol rising to over âŹ1.50 a litre in the coming weeks due to these crazy arabs.
Gas the way the lads who seem to know what they are on about completely ignore mickee and his jew loving aimless posts.
Kev, you actually had the makings of a nice pun there in that one liner but i can only assume that your by now well documented general lack of ability at English composition resulted in you failing to spot it.
I think its youâre missing it mickee.
Gaddafi has had a good week. Sadly he may be setting the template (or at least reminding everyone of the template) for dictators in how to keep power against protestors. Even in the age of Twitter ( :rolleyes: ), might is still right it seems.
The world isnât ready for a Libya without Gaddafi. The Brits trying to make out theyâd be kicking ass if it wasnât for the spending cuts :lol: