With the collapse of Stormont potentially imminent and an election due by next year it might no harm to have a look at this.
The performance of the Alliance in the next assembly elections could be crucial.
The demographics have changed, there should be a larger nationalist base in the next election so SF & the SDLP should hold firm. The SDLP could suffer however if the Alliance perform well, the SDLP are heavily reliant on transfers from Unionists in an anyone but SF type way. A lot of the time they get big transfers from the Alliance but if it’s a case whereby it’s the Alliance build their voting base it could mean that they surpass the SDLP and it’s the SDLP vote that is distributed rather than the Alliance. The SDLP vote will most likely benefit SF/Alliance and will lose the hard unionist parties.
I think there’s a very good chance that transfers could now cost the DUP/UUP going forward.
The way I see it would be.
Fermanagh/South Tyrone
3 nationalist seats, 2 Unionist. Certs of 2 SF 1 DUP and likely one extra SF seat (SDLP will challenge but I don’t think they will unseat SF) and UUP/DUP in a dogfight - can potentially see a DUP gain here at the expense of UUP.
3 SF 1 DUP 1 UUP
West Tyrone
No surprises here and same as the last time.
3 SF 1 SDLP 1 DUP
Mid Ulster
no surprises here either
3 SF 1 SDLP 1 DUP
Foyle
Really good chance the DUP miss out here to PBP
2 SF 2 SDLP 1 PBP
East Derry
SDLP could have a battle here. I think we will see a SF gain. If the Alliance pip the SDLP here then SF will get 2 seats at the cost of the SDLP. I’m going gain for SF, loss for the SDLP
2 DUP 2 SF 1 Ind Unionist
N Antrim
Could potentially be a UUP/DUP loss here. Swann might get the bounce off the vaccination rollout and the Alliance could make ground here. I’m going to make a ballsy prediction that I don’t have much faith in here. DUP Loss, Alliance gain.
1 DUP 1 UUP 1 TUV 1 SF 1 Alliance
E Antrim
Again this is one with a potential for a gain for SF/Alliance at the cost of Unionism. I think SF are in a stronger position here to gain than Alliance winning a second seat. UUP loss here, SF gain.
2 DUP 1 Alliance 1 UUP 1 SF
N Down
As you were
2 DUP 1 Alliance 1 Green 1 UUP
S Antrim
As you were
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SF
W Belfast
As you were
4 SF 1 PBP
N Belfast
This is the toughest one to call. I think Alliance will gain here at the cost of DUP or SF. Have demographics swayed enough for it to happen. Are DUP now as toxic to moderate/liberal Protestants as SF would be? I think it will be a SF loss here.
2 DUP 1 SF 1 SDLP 1 Alliance
E Belfast
No changes
2 DUP 2 Alliance 1 UUP
S Belfast
No changes
1 SF 1 SDLP 1 DUP 1 Greens 1 Alliance
Strangford
Potential SDLP gain here. They came close last time around. Going to for an SDLP gain/DUP loss.
2 DUP 1 Alliance 1 UUP 1 SDLP
Lagan Valley
Lunn unlikely to run for the Alliance again. He had left the party but I expect they will hold their seat. Unlikely any surprises here.
2 DUP 1 Alliance 1 UUP 1 SDLP
Upper Ban
SF could challenge the SDLP seat here but I think SDLP will retain. This is a constituency where SDLP rely on unionist transfers so the demographics could mean a SF gain here. I still think it will be a SDLP hold though.
2 DUP 1 UUP 1 SF 1 SDLP
South Down
SF will prob run a 3rd candidate here. Both Hazzard and Ennis were elected on the 1st count last time around with a 3k surplus. If SF do run a third candidate, it will almost certainly cost the SDLP with SF and Alliance battling it out for it. Depending on whether SF do or not I will go with an SDLP hold for now but an Alliance gain could be as likely.
2 SF 2 SDLP 1 DUP
Newry Armagh
No change
3 SF 1 SDLP 1 DUP
That would leave it:
SF 28
DUP 25
SDLP 12
Alliance 10
UUP 9
PBP 2
Greens 2
TUV 1
Ind Unionist 1
The DUP could lose some 1st pref to the TUV but there was no TUV candidate close to joining Allister in the last election.
