Australian Open 2020

Big Reilly fucked a two set lead away against 12th seed Fognini but Big Ivo, Big John and Big Kev all had R1 wins.

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There are no more giraffes since @Cicero_Dandi took his ball and fucked off.

Only really getting going. The brits took a bit of a beating with edmund and konta knocked out in the first round. Coric went out in the first round but he was playing Sam querry.

Sam Querrey is a giraffe.

Straight sets loss in the 1st round. I sure can pick 'em.

Things have really opened up for Federer.

Berrettini now gone, Dimitrov gone to 5 sets in his game. He could get to the semis without having to play a seed or nobody in the top 30.

Dimitrov gone. Hurkacz two sets down as well. Looks like Pella or Fognini will be the only two potentially seeded players Federer coyld face before a semi final. He won’t be facing any before a quarter in any case.

It just means that the seeds weren’t good enough.

Federer through in 3 sets.

He’s got the luck of the draw.

Don’t Millman is a tough opponent in the next round. Sure the early rounds of these slams are just a tune up for the top 3 for the second week. The real come from the 4th round onwards.

Millman is a journeyman.

There were plenty of banana skins there in the 3rd round. The likes of Cilic, Raonic, Dimitrov, Kyrgios, Rublev were some of the potential R3 opponents had they progressed there. It’s opened nicely for him. You’d expect a semi at a minimum with his current path.

Tsitsipas has the toughest route. He has Raonic next, Cilic/RBA after that and then Djokovic in a QF, Federer in the SF and then Nadal/Medvedev/Thiem in the final.

Nadal has a tough route too, Carreno Busta in R3, Kyrgios/Khachanov in R4, Thiem in the QF and Zverev/Medvedev in the SF and Djokovic/Federer/Tsitsipas in the final.

Millman beat Federer in their only previous Grand Slam meeting in the 4th round of the US Open in 2018.

He’s a journey man. He’s lost more slam matches than he’s won.

He is a journeyman and you’d be thinking Federer should beat him comfortably in straight sets. Federer pushing 39 is susceptible to losing to a journeyman though.

He is but you’d expect Federer to be reaching a semi final minimum with the way the draw has planned out for him.

The biggest issue for veteran players with designs on winning the tile is the cumulative toll of 7 matches if you make it all the way to a final. If Federer gets sucked in to a long 4 or 5 set match, even if he gets through, it pretty much scuppers any prospects further on in the rest of the tournament. That’s been an issue for Federer for 5-6 years now and its starting to become an issue for Nadal and Djokovic in the last year or two. Fognini does look the only player in Federer’s quarter, with the game to keep him out on court for a long time, but you can’t completely discount an off day and a complete systems failure against any opponent.

The draw could not have worked out any better for him in that regard.

Djokovic can still go marathon time I think. Don’t think Nadal can afford any tough times before R4 anymore. It’s when the likes of Thiem/Medvedev/Zverev/Tsitsipas etc begin to start playing to their seeds is when you expect the baton to be passed over. Are Federer/Nadal/Djokovic still capable of winning slams with three gruelling matches in the second week?

Djokovic I think is. Nadal and Federer not so much. Nadal is probably the player of the three of them who is furthest from his peak. He plays a completely different game now than he did at his peak. Federer and Djokovic still play the same style they always have.

Some interesting stats reflect the change in Nadal’s game in recent years.

Last year’s Wimbledon is the basis. The final is taken out of the equation here as it is an extra game for Federer and Djokovic.

After the conclusion of the semi finals, the following stats in relation to the distance covered and time on court

Djokovic time on court: 13 hrs 44 minutes
Djokovic distance covered. 51,885 ft

Federer time on court: 12 hrs 26 minutes
Federer distance covered: 41,895 ft

Nadal time on court: 13 hrs 47 minutes
Nadal distance covered: 42,996 feet

It’s clear Djokovic plays by far the most attritional game of the big 3 now and is by far the most durable. I think that is why Nadal has struggled with him on hard courts so much in the past 4/5 years, his body can’t compete with Djokovic any more.

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I doubt the Aussies will allow Roger peds to play in the evening for every game.

Thiem gets through in 5 sets.

Medvedev and Zverev had no bother, both coming through in straight sets. The top half of the draw looks like a bit of a bloodbath.

Tsitsipas has a tough draw in the bottom half but Federer and Djokovic have it relatively easy.

Nadal on later and should be making light enough work of Delbonis.