The eagerly anticipated AFL season resumes this week, and already Hawthorn are marginal favourites ahead of Sydney. Both played in last years final, so not surprising to see the bookies have them back near at the top. Whilst I do think Hawthorn will win it out again, it’s more because I cant see any side topple them. But saying that, repeat winners are few and far between, but Hawthorn are going for 3 in a row.
Hawthorn – The reigning premiers going for 3 in a row and strengthened their side over hte summer with the signing of James Frawley and 2012 second round pick Jono O Rourke. The strength they have throughout their side is phenomenal, and they always have someone to pick up the pieces and fill gaps and take over the players at the latter stages of their career. Last year when Brad Sewell was coming ot an end to his career, they had the likes of Will Langford being a stable valued contributor. And with Rioli back to full fitness, Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jaryd Roughead, Jack Gunston amongst others, they will easily be a top 4 team, and have a great shout to win 3 in a row.
Port Adelaide – They more than kept up their great run of form last year when many predicted their downfall after a very promising 2013. They were a kick away from beating Hawthorn in the semi final, and were very unlucky to lose out. They have a very young team, and it is only getting better. They have a solid core of experienced players like Travis Boak, Brad Ebert, Jay Schulz, and the spectacular in Chad Wingard, Robbie Gray and Matthew White. The biggest move of the off season was to get Patrick Ryder from Essendon, who is a great athletic ruckman.
Sydney Swans – I am always predicting their downfall and drop back the pecking order, but they keep proving me wrong. They were demolished in the grand final, which was a huge set back for them. The off field rumours and speculation over trades and financial irregularities will never leave them, but they do have a team of stars. Budy Franklin, Kurt Tippet and Sam Reid lead their attack, supported by Jarrad McVeigh, Dan Hanneberry, Kieran Jack and Josh Kennedy. Adam Goodes is still hanging around, but they have moved their team on to not be dependent on him. They’ll make the 4 again, and could make the final.
Fremantle – No real changes to them, but the biggest news was hard tagger Ryan Crowley being found guilty of positive drug tests and is facing suspension. Big news, and a big loss to them. They do have enough to win without him, but how does Ross Lyon react and galvanise his team for the season? With Nat Fyfe, Stephen Hill and Hayden Ballantyne, they have some of the top players. But time is running out for old ruckman Aaron Sandilands and big forward Matthew Pavlich. If they don’t do it this year, they will be waiting a while yet. And I don’t think they will do it.
North Melbourne – Consistency is their biggest challenge. They beat the top 4 last year, but lost to bottom of the table teams too. They have the ability to become the team to challenge for the top 4, and they might pip Freo for that. They picked up Jarryd Waite from Carlton and midfielder Shaun Higgins who is a decent pick up. Daniel Wells was also out most of last year, so him being back will be like a new recruit to the side. The midfield trio of Wells, Swallow and Del Santo is as experienced and good as there is, and with Goldstein Waite and Petrie, they have good tall options.
Geelong – The perennial team that keeps making finals. They finished top 4, but then bowed out miserably in their 2 finals games. They lost Varcoe and Christenson, which were 2 of their better runners through the middle. They have added Mitch Clark, who has had his own off field issues and problems, and also Rhys Stanley, a good solid ruckman. Joel Selwood leads by example, and Tom Hawkins is a great full forward. But they are loaded with good midfielders like Bartel, Duncan and Johnson, but lack other forward options. I see them slipping back another couple of notches this year.
Richmond – tipped highly last year, and despite losing 10 of their first 13, they snuck into the playoffs last year. I think their end season form is more where they are, but the consistency with them is similar to North, but they lose to some big sides, and get destroyed in the process. Playing list changed little, so they will be relying on captain Trent Cotchin, potential star Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio and Jack Riewoldt to see them back in finals, and maybe pushing for top 4.
Gold Coast – I think they finally make the 8. They should have done it last year, but Gary Abletts injury put paid to that. I think they have learned how to cope without him, which should make them a stronger side. Nick Malceski signed from Sydney, and he will add class and top level experience to them. Rodeny Eade is the new coach, and he should also bring them to a new level that Guy McKenna failed to reach. They have some of the best young players in Jaeger O Meara, David Swallow, Dion Prestia and Harley Bennell. They should make the 8, do they have the confidence to be able to do it if Ablett cant play?
Adelaide – will push hard, but they are among a group of teams who are between 6th and 14th with very little between them. I just think they are at the higher end of the mid range bunch, but not enough to make it into the finals. They are weak enough and inexperienced at the back due to retirements, trades and injuries, but still have a very potent midfield led by Patrick Dangerfield, who would arguably be a far bigger star if he was with a bigger Melbourne based side. Rory Sloane, Daniel Talia and if they can get more out of Josh Jenkins, then they have a centre field that can make up for deficiencies elsewhere. Taylor Walker is an excellent full forward, and was a huge loss last year for them, so him being fully fit makes a huge improvement too.
West Coast – An enigma of a side. Finished 5th in 2012, then 13th, then 9th last year. So their formline is all over the place. They have the ability to finish in the top 8, but this season is nearly a write off already losing their full back Eric McKenzie to an ACL who is a pivotal piece of their defence. With Dean Cox retired, the full ruck responsibility lead will be on Nic Natanui, so his inconsistency will have to be eradicated and he needs to show he can be a lead ruckman and not just a rotation type. Josh Kennedy will lead the front line with Jack Darling, and if they can get an inconsistent midfield consisting of Luke Shuey,Matt Pridis and Scott Selwood performing, then they have a chance of breaking the 8. I don’t see it this year though, too many players on the borderline of being stars or also rans, and they are on the wrong side of that line right now. The likes of Sharrod Wllingham, Matt Rosa, Chris Masten, all high potential, but not really fulfilling their potential.
Essendon – Like last year, its hard to know where Essendon will go. This drug thing is not going away anytime soon. Paddy Ryder is a big loss for them, as they have no real backup ready to fill his shoes. They picked up Adam Cooney, but his days are long behind, despite his skills. Jobe Watson is the real leader of this team, and his form is absolutely key to them doing well.They still have Dustin Fletcher in their side, who is older than most current players fathers. Must be some drugs in Essendon! They have an old side throughout though, plenty of experience, but lots of mileage on the clock. David Zaharakis, Brendan Goddard and a rejuvenated Jake Carlisle give them hope.
Carlton – at one stage looked like the team best equipped to break the Geelong/Sydney/Hawthorn dominance, but they have sunk so fast and so spectacularly. Mick Malthouse seems to be completely distracted by the media and is so far stuck up his own hole he is losing sight of his team. He has got rid of off field problem players Jeff Garland and Mitch Robinson, as well as Jarrad Waite. They got in little trades/free agents, and their top draft pick (Blaine Boekhorst) had a particularly unusual start when it was found he had tweeted his distain at Carlton and their manager last season when he was still playing junior footy. Made for an interesting meet up with his new team. The aging Chris Judd is still leading the way for them, but need the likes of Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer and Dale Thomas to be even more consistent and prove their worth.
Collingwood – Nathan Buckley is a fraud, and needs to be taken away from the managers position. It was too much too soon for a club like that. Due to a heap of injuries last year, they got a lot of game time into rookies not by choice, but it should help them this year blooding them in further. They lost some big time players in Nick Maxwell, Luke Ball and Dayne Beams, and really only got Travis Varcoe in return, so it would be a much weakened side. With the completely inconisitent Travis Cloke at full forward, they need another target man to take the load and share the goal scoring responsibilities. Small forward Jamie Elliot proved to be the main spark for them last year, so if they can get Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Jesse White to support Cloke, then they might start pushing up to finals contention again.
Brisbane – all the tipsters and bookies seem to be very high on Brisbane. I thought so last year, but I’m not so sure. Maybe I’m basing it more on past reputation of them finally about to break back into the 8 and for them to fail miserably, but I’m not sure they will go as far as some think they will. They do have some star quality, and the addition of Dayne Beams to Tom Rockliff, Daniel Rich and new recruit Allen Christianson, they have a midfield that other teams would die for. Add in Pearce Hanley who should be back from injury towards the latter part of the season, and that might push them on for a good finish to the year if needed. But I just think they are far too weak in their full back and full forward lines, and they will get caught out there.
Western Bulldogs – They had a very strange off season, losing their captain to a trade to GWS and sacking their manager, then the CEO left on unhappy terms. So its been a bumpy off season for the doggies. Robert Murphy is now captain, and they resigned some of their more promising younger players to tie them down. The new coach has a great record outside of AFL, but it will be interesting to see if he can transfer that across to the big leagues. Losing Tom Liberatore to an ACL really hampers them too for this year, so it will be down to the likes of Matthew Boyd, rising star winner Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Boyd who arrived from GWS and Jack McCrae to try psuh them up away from the dirge at the bottom and break back to mediocrity.
Melbourne – Paul Roos has transitioned the side to play his possession based boring shite game, so last year was already a change to the team who have been used to bottom 3 for the last few years. They still cant score, but at least their defence isn’t giving up as much as it used to with the new gameplan. The addition of Garlett should help their goal scoring a bit, and Jesse Hogan back after injury too. Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson, Jack Viney and Bernie Vince add some quality to the side, severly lacking it in many other areas.
Greater Western Sydney – Again, a lot of people tipping them to push on up the table, but maybe I haven’t seen enough of the off season to warrant placing them any higher. They have got rid of spoofer Kevin Sheedy, so at least management should be a bit better. Shane Mumford, Callan Ward, Devon Smith, Adam Treloar and new recruit Ryan Griffen will lead the lines for a very young promising team3
St Kilda – utter shite. Most conceded. Least scored. They lost club leader Lenny Hayes to retirement, and bafflingly traded away Rhys Stanley. Without Nick Riewoldt, they’d have fuck all, but they are a hugely changing side, and have a load of young and emerging players that I wouldn’t know a lot about as I wouldn’t be arsed watching much of St Kildas games.
So thats about it. Looking forward to the season ahead, and seeing who it is can topple Hawthorn. All the above is probably all wrong, but I couldn’t give a shite.