XIV was the place to be for the past few days, free money. I donât trust this rally though, Brexit was just a sideshow, the rally before the vote, the drop, and now the relief rally. There was a lot of talk about a short term 10% drop, so a lot of fools would have got caught in short positions. Nothing ever moves in straight lines in the market.
The fundamentals are still the same, global slowdown confirmed by shrinking corporate revenues and earnings. Hopes of more central bank stimulus still the factor holding this thing up, canât see it lasting. The Dow Theory flashed a bear market signal this week, itâs rarely wrong and generally good at keeping you out of the worst declines. Being long in a market that has gone sideways for 1.5 years and is seriously overvalued is high risk imo.
Ireland had the luxury of being an EU member whilst making that adjustment in fairness. Doubt an independent Scotland outside of EU will borrow at anything like as favourable rates. Unlikely to be admitted to EU whilst the IMF are in. Agree RE the oil prices alright
The Saudis will pump everything they can for as long as they can. They can see the writing on the wall and are already planning for a post oil economy. Whether they can execute successfully on that remains to be seen, I suspect they wonât.
The IDA & Enterprise Ireland are very successful in what they do. These units are neither run nor overseen by ministers & by their political appointees but by very professional management teams.
Dont underestimate the value to Ireland of Irish-American sentimentality either. I had first hand experience of that in the last 6 months and it is a very strong positive bond.
It is hard to do. they could do but takes time and the stable track record and no change to corporation tax we have for so long helps.
The U.K. Was becoming a threat to Ireland in terms of FDI and often last two or three countries in a short list. People want to live in a world capital and London was that.
Brexit changes all that as it means no certainty, no matter what happens now, the political stability that underpins investment decisions is shaken for a long time
Agreed. No doubt about that. The sterling rally is odd, and I wonder what underpins it. Cameron did day today in parliament that the new PM could speak to Europe before deciding whether to invoke article 50. Maybe there has been some behind the scenes chat at the EU, likely by the mandarins who actually run the thing.
If Britain stays in the whole project will still be more unstable than it was previously, especially with le pen lurking in the wings. It may actually hinder FDI everywhere.
The two statements are not related or connected, and frankly only a dimwit like the one liking your post could connect them.
Surveys are rubbish and increasingly so, especially in close elections. Pretty much all the Brexit surveys on the day before the election were predicting a stay outcome. The primary reason is most surveys are conduced via phone calls, and they just keep calling numbers until somebody answers. They appear to be less representative of a broad spectrum of potential voters these days, and perhaps are a better gauge of who actually uses a land line or answers their phone to unrecognized callers.
The Forbes article is not based on surveys, its based on actual data, the actual tax rate, the actual laws in a country, the actual level of education of the population, the actual crime and corruption from police records, that type of thing. Having been in many of the countries for work purposes I tend to broadly agree with their conclusions. In general Northern Europe especially Scandinavia is business friendly and southern Europe is more challenging. The US has slid back a lot due to over regulation, Most of Asia is a nightmare except for Singapore and Hong Kong. South America is a nightmare.
Anything is possible. Scotland would be in serious economic difficulty if they removed themselves from Englandâs tit, especially with oil prices permanently depressed. They canât undercut Ireland on tax, as you said yourself Ireland offers 0% if they need to. Cost of labor isnât high up on the list for companies, if it was they would be in Eastern Europe or Southern Europe. Labor laws, tax, available educated workforce, business friendly government, language skills (big fail for Scotland, nobody outside the UK and Ireland can understand what the fuck they are on about), experience, all that sort of thing is what matters.
The question is even if Scotland could offer everything that Ireland has, why would anyone move?
What sterling rally? After Brexit, sterling dropped from 1.50 to 1.33 against the USD. Itâs up a whopping 0.02 since to 1.35 (1.345 actually), hardly a rally. Itâs more likely to hit parity than go back to 1.50. All good for UK exports though.
