The Brits havenât a clue. They canât activate Brexit without the approval of Parliament, theyâve just been told. Two thirds of Parliament were against Brexit but now they think Parliament will vote for Brexit to respect the will of the people. Except that Theresa May is not going to let it go to Parliament as she wants to appeal the decision first, despite the fact that the decision looks, on the face of it, to be entirely reasonable.
If the legal challenges do not overturn the decision, it leads to a vote in the Commons on triggering article 50.
The 650 seats are currently held as follows;
Such a vote would expose the differences within the Torys and could split the party. It is hard to see how they could recoup, say, 25% of their MPs voting against by adding in the unionists and defections from Labour to the brexit side.
Because the UK doesnât have a constitution referendums are not legally binding.
Theresa May took the line that while not legally binding the referendum was the will of the people and therefore didnât need to go before parliament to revoke article 50.
The remoaners brought it to court, and said she had to get parliamentary approval before revoking article 50.
They won today.
Itâll be appealed.
This will ultimately further delay brexit and increase uncertainty.
Itâs probable that a parliamentary vote would fail to pass in a hail of mudslinging, gnashing of teeth and whip breaking.
The conservative party will be in ribbons.
Brexiters will have a meltdown and the crisis will be averted.