BREXIT PLAN
october 2 2019, 12:00pm, the times
Concessions, red lines and fudge: key elements of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal
oliver wright, policy editor
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Boris Johnson’s new plan to replace the Irish backstop and get a Brexit deal with the European Union over the line is a mixture of concessions, red lines and fudge. It moves a long way towards addressing EU concerns over the integrity of the single market but asks the bloc to take an unprecedented risk over customs checks. These are the five main elements to the plan.
Regulation
Northern Ireland would comply with existing EU single market rules and regulations for all goods and adopt all new rules agreed by Brussels. This is a further concession from the government. Previously Mr Johnson has said that only food and agricultural standards would be followed. Any goods shipped from Britain to Northern Ireland would be checked at ports on the Irish Sea and would be turned back if they did not comply with EU single market rules. This will require an entirely new declaration system to be created, as the current system relies on the European Union Customs Code. This is a significant concern for the EU, which does not believe it is practical.
Customs
The government is insisting that Northern Ireland must leave the EU’s customs union, a key demand of the Democratic Unionist Party. Mr Johnson insists that this will not lead to checks at the border itself, but that these could be done at business premises in Northern Ireland and the Republic. The UK is also proposing that small traders, who make up the bulk of trade by volume in Ireland be exempt from the system altogether. The EU has severe doubts about whether such a system could be made to work in practice and are concerned that it would be open to abuse and an increase in paramilitary smuggling. Some member states are understood to be willing to look at the proposal seriously as a compromise alternative to a no-deal exit.
Consent
This is one of the vaguer parts of the government’s proposals. It states that the Northern Ireland assembly and executive must give their consent to the plan before the end of the transition period — and then every four years afterwards. The way that Northern Ireland institutions are structured, however, means that any decision has to have the majority support of both nationalist and unionist parties. This could give the DUP an effective veto on the plan down the track, something that Dublin is unlikely to countenance. Also, the institutions are not up and running at the moment, with no sign in sight that they are about to be re-established. If they are still suspended at the end of the transition period the government has not stated how consent could be given. Downing Street is understood not to have ruled out the prospect of a Irish referendum on this issue.
VAT
The government is also insisting that Northern Ireland must remain in the UK’s VAT and excise regime. This is problematic for both Ireland and the EU. Mr Johnson has indicated that he wants to use Brexit to cut certain VAT rates in the UK, and this would significantly increase the risk of smuggling across the Irish border, which is already linked to paramilitary activity. This may be an area in which Britain is prepared to make concessions during detailed talks — if it gets that far.
Money
The government is proposing what it calls a “new deal for Northern Ireland” to support the province’s economic development and cross-border trade. In fact, this is a political term for an injection of cash from Whitehall to help the deal go down. Government sources say the UK would be prepared to provide significant funds to Belfast and Dublin to make the new arrangements work and help to get the deal over the line.