I am just saying, we heard during all the crisis how the Euro was on the brink and now it’s the EU apparently.
It’s not really economics either, it’s just budgeting a small slice of overall public spending on Europe. The EU budget is 145 billion, a lot but only 1% of the blocs output. The UK’s net position after getting money back is about 14 billion euro. So Europe is losing .01%.
The Euro crisis and refugee crisis were far bigger ones than the British hole in the budget. Brexit is a crisis in itself, but that’s going to cause the break up of the bloc, if anything the mess of Brexit is going to make it harder for things to unravel.
The continuation of zealot policy to save the euro currency will destroy the EU Project . I was always broadly a supporter of the EU but this euro has really made me doubt .
That mad Italian Draghi has just predicted a vigorous pick up in inflation in the Eurozone in the next few years. I’m sure southern Europeans are delighted with this news.
The Euro will lurch from crisis to crisis, but it’s too hard to unravel at the moment. The ones who could step out and be ok, like Germany are the ones benefiting most. The ones who should step out like the Greeks, Italians and Spanish are the ones who can’t.
You’re muddling economic output there and a spending budget. Whether individual countries can afford to continue to fund the EU at current levels or increased levels depends on their internal budgets, not their economic output. Internal budgets have a habit of going belly up in recessions, look at Ireland post 2008 for example. Could Ireland handle another round of austerity?
It is a relatively small amount. Germany alone spent more on refugees in 2016 for example, which was far more costly and caused far more social upheaval to mainland Europe than Brexit will. For Ireland Brexit is a disaster, but the rest of Europe has really shrugged their shoulders on it.
Talking about the UK’s contribution to the budget is the bullshit bingo engaged in by Brexiteers. Much like the easiest trade deal in history, frictionless northern Irish border and whatever other unicorn you’re ordering.
For the EU to collapse, we will need to see another widespread European war. The conditions are just not there for that.
The people who predicted the imminent demise of the euro for a decade might eventually be right, but unraveling every element of the European project is delusional.
That’s the trouble for now . But things can’t continue like this . Another even mild global recession and kaput . The scenario in the ME you outlined last night would be such a catalyst .
No, you need to see another financial collapse, but one that is worse than 2008 and one where the Germans can’t pass on the costs to member countries. The recession has already started by the way, emerging markets are a basket case. The global economy has been driven by growth in emerging markets funded by low interest debt from developed nations, the US in particular. That bubble is about to burst.
For mainland Europe, for the EU to collapse means borders up everywhere and people stuck, disruption to trade, food shortages and whatever else you’re having.
What is the logic of the EU collapsing? For Germany and Greece, one can see an argument for why the euro collapsing would be good for them, but not the EU.
Let us face reality. Even when everyone said the Greeks were on the way out, their populist party capitulated due to the reality of life. Chequers was a total cop out by the UK Government already, because of the reality of the economics of it all.
Saying the EU is going to collapse is like saying that Brexit is going to be wonderful. You have to be able to specify what you mean when you state that.
Out of that 14bn as well there’ll be savings on a huge amount of stuff in the budget such as not spending money translating every document into Ulster Scotch
Global debt is at $240 trillion, up $70 trillion from a decade ago. The “no worries” argument is that debt to GDP has been falling, but that’s due to growth in emerging markets, growth that has stalled. The idea that the EU will somehow be immune from a global financial collapse is risible, it’s possibly the most vulnerable region.
The future of the EU will depend on Germany and France, and skepticism towards the EU project is growing in both countries. If France leaves it’s over.
