In 1997 Labour were regularly hitting 55% in the opinion polls in the run up to the election but on the day they got only 43.2%. There was real enthusiasm for a prospective Labour government, but their vote still tailed off quite a bit on the day, obviously it was still plenty to win a landslide, but they got less votes in absolute numbers than John Major had managed five years previously.
There’s none of that enthusiasm this time. Labour only lead by default because the Tories are so awful.
I think there is still quite a bit of scope for the Labour vote to tail off for a few reasons - i) lack of real enthusiasm ii) among left wing voters the assumption that Labour will win and that it is safe to vote for a left wing candidate in the knowledge that Labour will win the election anyway, iii) Starmer performing poorly in debates and media, iv) a sort of weird herd effect where people sort of want an election to be close and exciting for spectator sport purposes, v) a lot of Labour voters will be tempted by Farage.
Reform could run the Tory vote down so far though that Labour do win a ridiculous majority on a relatively low vote share of 36-38% or thereabouts.
Where are Reform pulling their vote from?
I assume it’s primarily the Tories.
I’m not into the vagries of politics over there, but I can’t imagine Labour, Lib Dems, SDP or Greens hemorrhaging too many votes that far right.
So using that simplistic analysis, if they weren’t in existence Labour and Tories are essentially tied in this poll.