I was very impressed with Hold On Julio at the weekend, what race do the boffins on here feel he will be entered in? I’ll be having some ante post on him. So far I’ve backed Zarkander for the champion hurdle, 12/1, Finian’s Rainbow champion chase, 8/1, Bobs Worth RSA chase, 8/1 and Menorah for the Arkle at 14/1. Also had a bit on Long Run at 9/4 pre Xmas, praying to God that Waley-Cohen gets injured and Geraghty gets the mount.
To be honest SR, that is a despicable thing to say. The Waley Cohens have put plenty of money into the jumps game and are entitled to put their son up on their own horse should they so wish.
Hes an amateur (a good one) but is light years behind the top pros in terms of ability. You know this before hand when you place a bet.
He’s been badly off the boil this year Fenners, his ride in the King George was shocking. Has he had a winner under rules yet this season? Not arguing about the Waley-Cohen’s right to put him up, but he is clearly not as good as Geraghty.
Those rides were fine for an amateur but they look poor in comparison to top pros. He has ridden no winner under rules this year.
Hold on julio was to be aimed at 3m 1f handicap on day one of festival. The handicapper fairly hit him hard for last win, so that might change now.
Didn’t he win at the weekend from 3 pounds out of the handicap and also having been put up 9 pounds? I’ve had a look at that race on the opening day and he’s 8/1, some good opposition but this horse is on the upgrade.
Think he went up 12 pounds. Thats a big hike, he would not want to jump like he did the last day around cheltenham.
barring dramatic improvment Hold on Julio wont jump around in Che
Have updated the above to include 2 most recent bets this morning on the Bumper and the Jewson.
Reasons for backing Champion Court in the Jewson are in the normal Equine thread. The bumper one is a bit of a shot in the dark and could be all but down the drain in a couple of hours. I was very impressed by Moscow Mannon when he won in Fariyhouse at the start of December. He easily beat Joxer who has subsquently had 2 good runs in Maiden Hurdles being rather lucky to beat Allure of Illusion who was hampered by a faller in his most recent race. He had, prior to that turned over a fancied Willie Mullins horse but that lad looks to be rather useless now so it’s not worth anything.
Today, he takes on another fancied Mullins horse, Morning Royalty who won by a distance last time out and is close to the top of the market for the Champion Bumper. If Moscow Mannon wins today I don’t see the 25/1 being around for too long. He’s available at 6/5 today while Morning Royalty is at 11/8. The 6/5 is too skimpy for me to back him today so I’m taking a punt on his Cheltenham price which represents better value. It’s only a small bet so if he gets turned over today I’m not worried about it as I’d have probably lost more if I was backing him for todays race.
I’m also keen on Moon Dice for the County Hurdle but want to see more of a commitment from Flynn that he’ll run him there and not somewhere like the Coral Cup. He had also planned to give him a break after the Greatwood until the spring so I’m wondering why he ran him in the Istrabraq Hurdle over Xmas. Am surprised he hasn’t been entered in any races around now so will wait for further news on him before parting with anymore money.
It should be an interesting weekend as well with Time For Rupert, Hidden Cyclone and Oscars Well all down to run. I could be looking at a couple of great decisions or the whole thing could be in tatters :lol:
MM could be interesting. when i saw he was a moscow society i was going to caution re good ground but i see he won a bumper around Galway on good which track wise and gnd would be similar to che in march. You would expect willie would have a good enough line on him as he’s already met a couple of his horses already as you say
Hidden Cyclone not entered for any of the novice races in Cheltenham :o 
:mad: :shakefist:
Moscow Mannon runs out an easy 7 length winner having drifted out to 7/4 before the off. Interesting to see what Hamilton says the plans are for him now.
Am still seething at Shark not giving Hidden Cyclone an entry for any race in Cheltenham :mad:
Surely the bumper is a no brainer. Usually shirk that race but the 16s available for MM still looks generous. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in the colours of a certain tax exile from Limerick.
As regards to Hold on Julio, two words: Fallers Insurance.
[quote=“Lazarus, post: 650273”]
Surely the bumper is a no brainer. Usually shirk that race but the 16s available for MM still looks generous. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in the colours of a certain tax exile from Limerick.
As regards to Hold on Julio, two words: Fallers Insurance.[/quote]
Trainer says he’s 50:50 for bumper. They may send him novice hurdling either.
So after the weekend I’m taking time to look through each of the above
Cinders and Ashes - now best priced 12/1. Looking like a great bet.
Peddlers Cross - best priced 5/1 now and having seen how close he pushed Hurricane Fly I think he still has an outstanding chance. Loves Cheltenham and will make a mockery of his last run against Sprinter Sacre come March (one he runs of course!)
Oscars Well - very encouraging today - cut into best priced 16’s but as short as 10’s in places. Will continue to improve and good place prospects behind the champ.
Hidden Cyclone - dead as a dodo. Limitations shown up yesterday. Shark needs to rethink his strategy. No entry strategy a shocking call.
Oscar Whisky - 60:40 to turn up apparently. Best priced 5/1. Hard to see anyone beating Big Bucks. This fella is surely the only one who can get close. Hopefully seeing Hurricane Fly today will kill the Champion Hurdle idea in Hendersons head.
Ut de Sivola - best priced 12’s. Hisaabaats run yesterday a worry, but on mature reflection that horse looks like a pure bridle merchant. Travels well but finds nothing. Hasn’t been surpassed in betting by Darroun yet. Still a wide open race.
Weapons Amnesty - already a dead bet
Time for Rupert - may as well be a dead bet.
Backstage - Not favourite for the race with some. As short as 6/1. Plenty of opposition emerging from English hunter chases. Won’t be as easy as first thought. Value secured at least.
Moscow Mannon - 2nd fav between 10’s and 16’s. 50:50 if he’ll go vs novice hurdling. Trainer seems keen to get a buyer so if JP or Barry Connell buy he’ll be a shoe in for the bumper.
Champion Court - no change yet
Others that have entered consideration
Moon Dice - big fancy of mine for county hurdle but haven’t seen enough commitment from Paul Flynn yet. No word on horse after Istabraq hurdle run either.
Staying Article - ran a massive race under a large weight yesterday. Still relatively unexposed and if mark remains similar I can see him being a massive value bet for County Hurdle. Available at 20/1 with Stan James at present.
Tidal Bay - holds an entry in World Hurdle and Gold Cup. May not run in either. This lad is a quirky as fuck but under Ruby and Nicholls they may get the best from him. A former Arkle winner who finishes like a train up the hill. If he has a run at the festival in a lower class race, he’ll be very hard to ignore.
I can make a strong case for oscar whisky beating him.
You have a very nice portfolio there mac, i hope you make a few quid.
You and me both Fenway. Twas your blog early in the season that got my head in gear on it so thanks for that. Seeing Shark messing up such a seriously good horse really pisses me off though.
I would agree with you on Oscar Whisky but it’s a worry for me when a trainer publicly says it’s only 60:40 about him turning up and that he may run in the CH if he does something special at Ffos Las next Saturday. What does he expect to do? No-one will want to oppose him so he’ll probably win at a canter at odds on. He’s potentially fucking up a seriously good horse. As I said above, I hope seeing Hurricane Fly pissing in will make his mind up to send him over the longer distance.
Oscar Whiskey is running in the world simply because he has no chance in the champion…dont see it…looks to me very like a sentry duty job all over again albeit OW is more talented…
Speaking with a person today who was in the company of the Pipe contingent in Leop and this full brother to Grad Crus is a machine(wont even try to spell it) but they are not sure whether they will go to che bumper with him…
He will deffo run in Stayers. If Hurricane Fly got injured they may switch to champion and so they are just covering all the angles by entering him. They know they cant beat the fly.
Oscar Whisky will be the classiest opponent that Big Buck’s has ever faced. World Hurdles are notoriously slowly run races, hence Big Buck’s has never recorded a decent speed figure. This will help Oscar to get the trip and I feel he will have too many gears for Big Buck’s after the last.
I also think that Big Buck’s has a lot of miles on the clock and feel that it was strange that they decided to run his over the weekend. Dynaste has managed to get him off the birdle twice this year, albeit very very breifly. This did not happen in any of his runs prior to Cheltenham last year and I would be concerned that he is after two harder races than this time last year.
Dynaste is a decent animal but I cant have him being anywhere in the same class as Oscar Whisky.
Think they have put him away for the year KC. Pipe stated as much after him win.