What day did this fall happen? And what day did the firms go NRNB?
Happened Fri I think. Few gone NRNB but not all at this stage and wasn’t any probably when he fell
Ruby just on RUK dialled in there said it was bad fall, first time he’d ever fallen schooling at home, had no idea whether KS would run or not but wasn’t giving much away really.
What about Paddy Power lads? They may have stitched up thousands of punters. Me included.
What offer had Powers going TTK and when did they announce it?
I’m not talking about the Kauto thing there The Runt.
It’s regarding their special of money back if Sprinter Sacre wins (max refund was €100 per account). I’ve had a number of bets through this special on Peddlers Cross. However going by betfair today and by McCain’s comments it looks like he may well swerve the Arkle for the Jewson leaving all the punters that took Peddlers in PP special short changed.
Wouldn’t quite compare the two TTK. In fairness to PP they have taken on the jolly last few years and it was an obvious choice for hem this time.
McCain is some bollox all the same if he runs Peddlers in a fucking G2!!!
Oh right, that makes more sense.
But as Dan says they have always gone for high publicity specials against favourites.
Be interesting to see the exact quotes from Ruby and Nichols in recent days prior to this annoucement
It wouldn’t surprise me if they knew the vibes from the McCain yard were anything but confident, if Peddlers Cross does divert Powers will have a serious green book before they line up. They were doing a lot of PR about it costing them in the region of £3m. :rolleyes: They will surely make money on that race.
Maybe so, bu we all know we are betting into an imperfect market and that there is every chance we don’t have all the info that others may have. PC only started drifting today their offer is there since Mon I’d say. I’m no fan of PP, especially as the cunts online service is gone to the dogs, app has just collapsed two Saturdays out of three recently, but I would be far more pissed off with McCain in this instance. If the horse is right to run then run him in the G1. He has hardly just figured out in the past few days that despite all is bullish talk his horse isn’t a g1 contender.
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 650645”]
I’m not talking about the Kauto thing there The Runt.
It’s regarding their special of money back if Sprinter Sacre wins (max refund was €100 per account). I’ve had a number of bets through this special on Peddlers Cross. However going by betfair today and by McCain’s comments it looks like he may well swerve the Arkle for the Jewson leaving all the punters that took Peddlers in PP special short changed.[/quote]
U sure the horse has to run for the bet to be eligible for the special? What do the terms say?
If PC doesn’t run, and TTK has backed him how would he be eligible or am I misunderstanding you?
The special is for Sprinter Sacre not Peddlers Cross. States on the Powers website that ante-post rules apply.
The main disadvantage of ante post betting is that if your horse doesn’t run it is considered a loser - ante post bets are accepted all in run or not.
Thought it just said losing win bets were refunded is SS wins. Didn’t see the ante post rules bit.
[font=Arial][size=3]“The customer’s selection must run for the refund to apply.”[/size][/font]
Edit: TTK has it posted above
Fenway Park’s guide to the first day of racing at Cheltenham.
http://www.thefreekick.com/blog/?attachment_id=3142" rel="attachment wp-att-3142]
<span style="font-size: large;]Supreme Novices
Steps To Freedom – The market for the Supreme Novices is headed by this Jessie Harrington inmate. Formerly in the care of Gordon Elliot he switched yards after the Punchestown Bumper last May. He made a winning debut over hurdles at Fairyhouse (good) in September and followed up by taking a Grade 3 by 1¼ lengths from Sailors Warn at Punchestown (good to soft) in October. He showed his liking for the Supreme course and distance when giving Prospect Wells three pounds and neck beaten in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham (good) in November. What was pleasing about this performance was the fluency that he displayed over his hurdles and his constitution (something that had been in question in the past). He is rated an unexposed 102 on the level and this alone makes him a very credible challenger for top honours. While the form of this race has taken a few hits subsequently it must be said that Steps To Freedom had been on the go since last April and had nine races between April and November. It may be fair to say that he was slightly over the top in that Grade 2 and may be a lot better than the bare form suggests. This was on good ground and he has not been seen since due to his preference for a sounder surface. He put up a thoroughly devastating performance in winning the Champion Bumper at Aintree (good) last April after a year off where he comfortably cast aside the challenge of Montbazon (received 6 pounds) by 2 lengths. He underperformed in the Punchestown equivalent where he may have ‘bounced’.
Prospect Wells – Formerly trained by Howard Johnson, this former Listed and Group 2 winner on the flat is now in the care of Paul Nicholls. He began the year as mentioned above with a neck defeat to Steps To Freedom. This was followed by a four length win over All the Aces at Newbury (winner subsequently). He was then sent off favourite for the Ladbroke at Ascot (soft) where he finished 1 ¼ length fourth to Raya Star. This was off a mark of 142 and while it was not a bad effort one would expect a possible Supreme winner to win off that mark. His final start was in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown (soft) in January where he was a well beaten fourth of five starters. That effort was too bad to be true and he may have still being feeling the effects of his earlier race in the Ladbroke. He has subsequently received a breathing operation. On the positive side, his hurdling has been superb and the big field and frantic pace will definitely be in his favour as should the better ground.
Montbazon – Trained by Alan King, Montbazon was a high class bumper horse during 2011. After a disappointing third in the Listed Bumper at the Paddy Power Meeting he made his much anticipated debut over the smaller obstacles at Newbury in December. He was a noticeable drifter in the market, mainly due to concerns about his ability to handle soft grounds (all his bumper runs had been on-going described as good to soft or better). He travelled and jumped ominously well and looked the probable winner approaching the last. The winner, Colour Squadron was quicker away at the final flight and managed to hold his length advantage all the way up the long Newbury straight. There was 19 lengths back to Ericht in third and he had previously finished a close third behind Steps To Freedom at Cheltenham in October. Wayne Hutchison did not go for the jugular understandably, and one was left with the impression that he would reverse placings with the winner back on better ground. On his punultimate start at Plumpton in January (good to soft) he won in the manner of a 1-10 shot and told us nothing we did not already know. On his final start at Newbury (good to soft) in February Montbazon beat a smart field by 7 lengths, helped by the fall of his old rival Colour Squadron at the second last when travelling well. Montbazon jumped fine in the main but it was encouraging how well he picked up after making a mistake at the third last. He stayed on strongly up the long Newbury straight but one was left with the impression that this was not Supreme winning form. The trainer has made no secret of the high regard with which he holds Montbazon, and will be hopeful that he can improve on Medermit’s second in the 2009 renewal.
Tetlami – This imposing son of Daylami was a high class bumper horse during the 2009/2010 season but missed all of last year as a result of a Pelvis injury sustained at the Aintree Festival. He made a pleasing return to the racecourse at Sandown (good to soft) in December where he had the well regarded Knight Pass 7 lengths behind in third (won a class C Handicap on next start off 125). He defied a penalty and the ‘bounce’ factor in beating the 103 flat rated Vulcanite (received 5 pounds) at Kempton (good to soft) over Christmas. This is a race that Nicky Henderson usually targets with his better novices. He showed his well-being when winning one of the Bumpers For Jumpers series at Kempton in February. While he has won on soft ground, his trainer is adamant that he needs good ground to be seen at his best. One gets the impression that Tetlami has rather crept in under the radar as he lacks the high profile connections of some of the other runners at Seven Barrows.
Vulcanite – Sheikh Fahad Bin Abdulla Al Thani has enjoyed Group 1 success on the Flat with Lightning Pearl and Dunaden. He is now looking to capture Grade 1 success at the Festival with his first runner under rules, the Charlie Longsdon trained Vulcanite. Vulcanite made a more than satisfactory debut over hurdles when chasing home the smart Tetlami (gave 5 pounds) over 2m at Kempton (good to soft) in December. He made a winning debut on his penultimate start over 2m at Southwell (good to soft) in January. He ran out a very easy 7 length winner at odds of 1-4 with the runner up going on to win next time out. On his final start at Newbury (good to soft) in February he had his limitations exposed in finishing a 7 length runner up to Montbazon. In his defence front running tactics were deployed and it maybe that this classy 103 rated flat horse will be seen in a much better light once ridden with more restrain off a quick pace. Charlie Longsdon has subsequently reported that he scoped badly afterwards and so a line can be drawn across that run.
Cinders And Ashes – This Donal McCain inmate was a high class bumper horse last year. Nothing was travelling better than this son of Beat Hollow to three out in the Champion Bumper, but his effort flattened out thereafter and he trailed in a 16 length fifth to Cheltenian. It was still a fine effort from a four year old who had done all his running in Junior Bumpers to that point. He made his hurdling debut at Ascot (good) in November where he went down a length to Nicky Henderson’s Broadbackbob (easy winner next time out). This only tells half the story as he made a horrendous mistake five out and lost his pitch together with a huge amount of ground. He was giving time to recover by Timmy Murphy and made stealthy progress from three out. He won his maiden next time out when easily brushing aside the challenge of another Seven Barrows inmate Keys by 9 lengths at Aintree (soft) in December. The runner up is now rated 94 on the flat and was a listed winner in that sphere during the summer. On his final two starts at Haydock in January and February he justified odds on with the minimum of fuss. Both these runs were on heavy ground and while Cinders And Ashes has won and performed credibly on good ground there must be a concern that he is more effective with plenty of give.
Galileos Choice – Dermot Weld’s 110 rated Flat recruit made a successful hurdling debut at Galway (good) in July where he was all out to beat the 125 rated Drumfire by a neck. After a couple of spins on the level, including a Group 3 over 10f at Leopardstown (good) in September, he made his next in the Grade 1 Royal Bond over 2m at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) in December. Under a patient ride by Robbie McNamara he was settled well out the back until making his move approaching the third last but could never really strike a blow on the front running Sous Les Cieux, beaten 1 ¼ lengths. At the time it looked like a very good run but the winner has subsequently let the form down. He completed his preparations for the Supreme by justifying odds of 2-9f with the minimum of fuss at Fairyhouse (soft) in February. Any pattern class flat horse that has shown an aptitude for hurdling has to be respected. My concern is that he has been on the go since April (six runs) without a break of more than two months. In addition, in light of his run at Galway, I would be concerned about his ability to see out a fast run 2m on a track like Cheltenham.
Darlan – This Milan gelding was bought by JP McManus after winning his sole bumper by 27 lengths at Haydock (good). He made a smooth transition to hurdles at Kempton (good) in November where he won by a hard held 6 lengths. He was all out to win his next start at Cheltenham (good), finding much less than anticipated off the birdle. Nicky Henderson remarked post-race that he probably lacked race fitness as he was given an easy time since his Kempton run. He restored his lofty reputation on his next start at Taunton (good to soft) to win with his head in his chest from the very decent Jumps City. On his final start he contested the Grade 3 Betfair Handicap at Newbury off a mark of 146. He travelled sublimely well until coming down at the second from home and could be considered an unlucky loser. This run confirmed the opinion that he may be at his best on a flatter track rather than over the undulations of Prestbury Park.
Verdict – The Irish have dominated this race in recent times, winning eight of the last thirteen renewals. National Hunt Bred horses have tended to come to the fore in recent years, which some point to the policy of course officials aiming for ground no better than good to soft on day 1. The logical conclusion is that this blunts the speed of the Flat Breds and places an emphasis on the stamina of the National Hunt Breds. I feel that this is a slightly misleading statistic as there have not been too many classy Flat Breds contest the Supreme in recent years.
This looks a very open renewal but I am going to come down on the side of Jessica Harrington’s Steps To Freedom at 9-1 each way. I feel that this slick hurdler will relish coming off the frantic pace and can use his turn of foot to put the bed to rest after the last. Of the others Nicky Henderson holds a strong hand and I would respect the chances of Tetlami and would be happy to put him up as an alternative to the selection.
<span style="font-size: large;]Arkle Chase
Peddlers Cross – This 170 rated hurdler and runner up in the 2011 Champion Hurdle made his much anticipated switch to the larger obstacles at Bangor (good to soft) in November. In what was essentially an egg and spoon race he sauntered to a facile success but more importantly put in a flawless round of fencing. He put up a similar performance later that month at the same track (good to soft) where he easily brushed aside the challenge of the Minella Class (unseated and pulled up on next two starts). Unsurprisingly he was installed ante post favourite for the Arkle on the back of these wins but had his bubble somewhat burst on his latest start at Kempton (good) over Christmas. In a three runner affair, he set out to make all but met the first all wrong and for all intents and purposes his race was over at that point. He trailed in a well beaten second to Sprinter Sacre. It was surprising to hear his connections state post-race that he now needed a step up in trip as he lacked the pace to compete with the top novices over this distance. A two mile test around a speed track like Kempton is a world apart from a two mile test around Cheltenham. It is important to note that this was the first time that Peddlers Cross had run righthanded and this as much as his blunder at the first fence may explain his below par effort. I feel that Peddlers Cross has a few questions to answer now, and may be suffering some mental scares from his trojan effort in last year’s Champion Hurdle. He has been well beaten when faced with genuine Grade 1 opposition in starts subsequent to this run.
Sprinter Sacre – Nothing travelled better than Sprinter Sacre in last year’s Supreme Novice and he looked all over the winner approaching the last but found little for pressure up the punishing hill. Post-race Nicky Henderson stated that he hoped to be back next year contesting the Arkle. Thus it was no surprise to see him make his chasing debut at Doncaster (good) in December. Displaying plenty of scope he was faultless in running out an easy 24 length winner. His next run at Kempton was against Peddlers Cross at Kempton over Christmas where he was simply electric over his fences in running out a very easy winner. His final start came in open company where he contested the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury (good to soft), as connections were eager to give him experience in a decent field where the pace would be more generous. He was simply magnificent and put in another round of majestic jumping; winning hard hell from decent yardstick French Opera (gave 5 pounds). Barry Geraghty is on record as stating that he is the best two mile chaser he has sat on since Moscow Flyer. High praise indeed but he still needs to show that he can battle up the Cheltenham hill and maybe more importantly that he can learn to switch off in his races. He was noticeably keen in his runs as a novice hurdler and this trait was evident on all chasing starts. With a year of physical development under his belt aswell as a breathing operation, there is every reason to believe that he will ascend the Prestbury Hill much better this time round. My concern is that his form suggests that he is better on flat tracks and his early race keenness may not help him see out what looks like been a very fast run Arkle. He has been the most visibly impressive chaser this year but all the opposition he has faced (exception of Peddlers Cross) are well below the quality he will face in the Arkle.
Al Ferof – Last year’s Supreme Novice winner runs in the famous One Man colours of John Hales. He made a pleasing start to his chasing career with an easy victory in a Grade 2 over course and distance (good to soft) in November. The runner up Astracad is now rated 145 after winning a Class B handicap on its next start. Al Ferof was then sent to Sandown (good to soft) for the Grade 1 Henry VIII chase where he showed his reknown battling qualities to repel the challenge of the very decent For Non Stop by a neck. In truth Al Ferof probably found himself idling after hitting the front three out. He was stepped up to open company for his next start in the Grade 1 Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot (good to soft) in February. He was kept wide all the way around to get a good look at his fences and it must be said that his jumping was sticky at times. At times he looked like he was struggling to go the pace and in the end finished 5 lengths in arrears of Somersby. Prior to this run I was quite keen on Al Ferof’s chances in the Arkle but this race confirmed that he will lack the basic pace and fluency to mount a serious challenge in a red hot renewal.
Menorah – The winner of the 2009/2010 Supreme Novice was sent off second favourite for the Champion Hurdle last year but had his limitations exposed in finishing fifth. It was no surprise to see him switched to the larger obstacles in the beginning of November at Exeter (good) where everything was going nicely to plan until unseating Richard Johnson two out. Up to that point he had displayed plenty of scope. He was switched back to hurdles in an effort to retain the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December but finished well down the field behind Grandouet. He returned to fences at Taunton (good to soft) on his latest start, where he ran out a very easy winner despite a final fence blunder. Unfortunately on his final run at Doncaster (good to soft) in January he made it no futher than the third fence where he made a bad blunder and fell. It is certainly not the ideal preparation for a test like the Arkle but Menorah has an excellent course and distant record and if he manages to put in a clear round is more than capable of running a huge race.
Cue Card – The runaway winner of the 2009/2010 Champion Bumper looked to have the equine world at its feet when embarking on his hurdling career last year. He was sent off 7-4 favourite for the Supreme but had to settle for fourth in what now looks like a red hot renewal. He probably could have finished much closer with a better ride. Been out of a good jumps family he was sent chasing at the beginning of the year but he blundered and unseated Joe Tizzard at the 11th fence when travelling well on his debut at Cheltenham (good) over 2m 5f in November. He ran a blinding race at Newbury (good) on his next start over 2m 4f where he just failed to give Bobs Worth seven pounds. Again jockeyship could be pointed to this defeat. The most pleasing aspect of his Newbury defeat was the way he put his head down and battled when tackled by Bobs Worth. His constitution had been in question prior to that. On his latest start he again showed his liking for Newbury (soft) by jumping bolding from the front to record a comfortable 4 length success over For Non Stop (received 7 pounds). Connections have now consented to giving Cue Card his head and making the running and it is noticeable how much better he has run as a result. He has plenty of pace and stamina but frontrunners have a dismal record in the Arkle, on the plus side he may well get his own way out in front which will be a huge help.
Verdict – It is interesting to note that eleven of the last twelve winners was rated 142+ over hurdles, with five of the last eleven winners been the highest rated hurdler in the field. Frontrunners have a dismal record in this race, which is a big negative for Cue Card supporters. Favourites have also performed poorly with only one winning favourite in last fourteen renewals (Azertyuiop in 2003). Having said all that it pays to follow those near the head of the market as only one of the last fourteen renewals been won by a horse at double figures (Flagship Uberalles in 1999).
Arkle winners appear to possess the ideal combination of speed and stamina. Last year’s Supreme Novice looked a red hot renewal and for me it is the key race in trying to analyse the Arkle. Sprinter Sacre looks special and is by far the best jumper in this race. Whether he will get up the Cheltenham Hill better this year is the great unknown. Personally I would not be surprised to see him run out an impressive winner but at the prices I much prefer the chances of Cue Card at 17-2 each way. He only finished 1 ¼ lengths behind Sprinter Scare in last year’s Supreme but would have finished well in front of that rival under a better ride. His price underrates his form over fences. His connections have now found the apparent key to the horse by allowing him to front run and in a field dominated by hold up horses he may well get the run of the race. Should he put in a clear round of jumping he may well have the necessary stamina to withhold the closers on the punishing run to the line.
<span style="font-size: large;]JLT Speciality Festival Handicap Chase
Hold On Julio (rated 145) – This former hunter chaser has been a revelation since switched to the Alan King yard at the beginning of the season. He made a mockery of his mark of 117 to run out an easy 11 length winner on his debut for the Bradbury House team at Sandown (good to soft) in November over 3m 1f. Unsurprisingly the Handicapper raised him 16 pounds but it made little difference as he comprehensively outclassed a decent field of handicappers at Sandown (good to soft) over 3m 1f in January by 9 lengths. This was despite hitting a few fences quite hard. The handicapper now has raised him to a mark of 145, but that may not be enough to stop the progress of this 9 year old.
Quantitativeeasing (rated 155) – This full brother to Asian Maze started his season with a 7 length second to Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November (good to soft). He had no answer to the impressive winner but was noticeable how well he was staying on at the finish. This was off a mark of 144. The Handicapper only raised him one pound for that effort and with a big pull at the weights was fancied to get a lot closer to the winner in the December version (good) of the same race. Under a power packed ride from Barry Geraghty he stayed on relentlessly from two out to get up close home to beat Medermit by ¾ of a length. He has been raised eight pounds for that effort and off his new mark of 153 will certainly find life tougher. He looks to be crying out for a step up in trip and is certainly open to further improvement as he does so. His Festival record is good with a fifth place finish in the Coral Cup and a second place finish behind Divers in last year’s Plate.
Time For Rupert (rated 153) – This Paul Webber trained gelding finished second to Big Buck’s in the 2010 World Hurdle before beginning a novice chase campaign at the start of the 2010/2011 season. Such was the promise he displayed that he was sent off 7-4 favourite for the RSA but was a huge disappointment (reported to have burst a blood vessel post-race). He was sent off a well backed 11-8 favourite to get back on track in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby (good) in October but had no answer to Weird Al (gave 3 pounds) over the last. After finishing a disappointing fifth of six runners in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) in November, connections decided to switch jockey with Denis O’Regan taking over from Will Kennedy. They struck up a winning partnership the first time of asking at Newbury (soft) in December. On his final start in the Grade 2 Argento Chase at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January, he could only finish a 14 length fourth to Midnight Chase. It seems that last year’s staying novice chasers were a below average bunch and that Time For Rupert may be below top class. It is notable that he has never won a graded race over hurdles or fences. On the positive side he does possess a great course record 1221154, with that fifth place coming in the RSA chase where he had valid excuses.
Verdict – All previous twelve winners of this race were rated no higher than 143. Previous Festival form is very important in this race with seven of the last fourteen winners having won or placed in previous Festivals. Novices have a good record, winning three of the last eight renewals. Alan King has a fine recent record in this race and Hold On Julio will be hoping to supplement the previous successes of Folk Lightning and last year’s hero Bensalem. He could still be ahead of the handicapper but his jumping is a major concern around these very stiff fences. My eye is immediately drawn to Time For Rupert who is very well handicapped in comparison to his hurdle rating (166). While he is below Grade 1 standard at this junction in his career he is well up to winning this Grade 3 off his current mark which I feel greatly underestimates his ability. He comfortably beat Quantitativeeasing off levels last year as a novice over 2m 5f yet receives two pounds from that rival here with the extra 6f more in Time For Rupert’s favour. He looks a huge price and represents a great each way play at 16-1.
<span style="font-size: large;]Champion Hurdle
Hurricane Fly – The reigning champion and the standard bearer for all top 2 mile hurdlers. He made a sensational return in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown (heavy) in January where he put arguably the most impressive performance of his glittering career when beating Oscars Well by an easy 6 ½ lengths. The Handicapper certainly thought so and raised him 1 pound to 173 as a result. He will now attempt to become the first horse since the great Hardy Eustace in 2005 to retain the Champion Hurdle. He looks bombproof and it will take something truly extraordinary to lower his colours.
Grandouet – This Nicky Henderson trained gelding was a very high class juvenile hurdler last year, culminating in a well-deserved Grade 1 at the Punchestowns festival. He finished third to Zarkandar in the 2011 Triumph where he possibly found himself in front too soon from home and/or found the steep uphill finish a bridge too far. His win in the Grade 2 International Hurdle on his second start this season at Cheltenham (good) in December was very decent. He tanked along off a decent gallop taking up the running after the last and finding enough up the hill to repel the challenge of Overturn (gave 4 pounds) by 3 ½ lengths. I suspect this performance has been slightly overrated and he did not to my eye ascend the Cheltenham Hill with the vigour and tenacity one would expect from a Champion Hurdler in waiting. Connections have often felt that he is more at home on a flatter track and I would tend to agree, judged on his two course runs to date. I can see him running a similar race to the one he put up in the Triumph Hurdle last year where he travelled well until weakening up the hill.
Zarkandar – This regally bred gelding was the top Juvenile hurdler last year with victories in the Adonis at Kempton, the Triumph at Cheltenham and the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree. He was sent for a breathing operation during the summer as connections noted that he was making a noise at the business end of his races. He made a triumphant return by capturing the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (good to soft) on his seasonal debut. In a slowly run race he was scrubbed along from two out but finished best of all over the last to prevail by 1 ¼ lengths from Get Me Out Of Here. While not visibly impressive, it was a hell of a performance from a horse making his fourth ever start over hurdles in a race that was never run to suit. There must be further improvement to come back over course and distance and more importantly in a true run race. In truth he needs to find another 10 pounds at least to challenge Hurricane Fly. The form of the Triumph has been well flanked and with a year’s physical improvement on his back, his breathing sorted, there must be enough improvement in this son of Azamour to make him a genuine Champion Hurdle contender.
Oscars Well – After finishing an unlucky fourth in last year’s Neptune, connections of this Jessica Harrington trained runner decided to embark on a Champion Hurdle campaign. He finished 3 ¾ lengths behind The Real Article in the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at Down Royal (soft) in November. He finished a 5 ½ length runner up to Thousand Stars in the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown (soft) at the end of November but managed to finished much closer to this rival when a 3 ½ length third to Unaccompanied in the Grade 1 Istabraq Hurdle at Leopardstown (soft) over Christmas. He maintained his progressive profile on his final start where he finished a 6 ½ length runner up to Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown (heavy) in January. The stable were under a cloud of sorts in the early start of the year and it was no surprised to see Oscars Well run his best race here with the stable in far better fettle. Oscars Well would not have the basic speed of a Hurricane Fly or a Zarkandar but he does have a high cruising speed and a great degree of fluency over his hurdles. He has never won a hurdle race over the minimum distance but should the Champion Hurdle be a fast run affair one could see him running into a place.
Rock On Ruby – This Paul Nicholls runner was a neck second in last year’s Neptune. He made a winning seasonal debut at Newbury (good to soft) over 2m in November where he easily defied a mark of 145 in winning the Listed Gerry Feilden Hurdle, back in third was Raya Star who went on to win the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle on his next start. For a horse who looked to be a middle distance hurdler, he showed plenty of pace here to suggest that he may be up to Champion Hurdle class. His final start came in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton (good to soft) where he was beaten into a neck second by Binocular, not helped by a slight mistake at the final flight. This tight track would not have played to his strengths (same could be said for the winner) and he will be more at home on a galloping track like Cheltenham where his course record is 122. His form received a considerable boast in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle when Raya Star (received 12 pounds) finished a 1 ¼ length third to Champion Hurdle second favourite Zarkandar. At Newbury in November Rock On Ruby gave Raya Star 13 pounds and 10 ½ length beating over the same course and distance. On the evidence of this he looks to have reasonable place prospects.
Binocular – The 2010 Champion Hurdle winner was withdrawn on the eve of the 2011 renewal which took a lot of gloss of the race itself. He returned to action in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle (good to soft) in November and put up a similar performance to the one he recorded in 2010 version at Newbury behind Peddlers Cross, where he jumped and travelled well until blowing up after the last. That race had him spot on for his early season target, the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton (good to soft) and he showed great battling qualities to retain his crown with a neck defeat of Rock On Ruby. Connections and AP McCoy were somewhat downbeat after this win, feeling that the horse was well below the standards he had previously achieved. It was not surprising to hear that he subsequently received a wind operation. He showed that he was no back number on his final start in the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton (soft) where he travelled and jumped like the Binocular of old just needing to be pushed out to record at easy 6 length win over the 165 rated Celestial Halo who is mustard around this track. Binocular has never failed to finish outside the placings in all three visits to Prestbury Park in March and in a true run Champion Hurdle he may emerge as the main threat to Hurricane Fly.
Verdict – Traditionally course form was considered of paramount importance when selecting the likely winner of this race but the last three winners were recording their first success at the course. Istabraq and more recently Hardy Eustace have managed to win back to back renewals while defending champions have all returned the following year to run with great credit. Only one five year old in the last eighty seven renewals has recorded a victory (Katchit in 2008). I feel that this statistic is a bit of a misnomer as five year olds have a decent recent record in the race with many place efforts.
The measure of a great horse is that he can win regardless of the race conditions and this certainly applies to Hurricane Fly. He is a very worthy favourite. It is interesting to note that the winning time last year was comparable to what Binocular achieved in 2010 and it must be said that Binocular was a very easy winner whereas Hurricane Fly was pushed to the pin of his collar by Peddlers Cross. I have little doubt that in a slowly run Champion Hurdle nothing can beat Hurricane Fly’s electric turn of foot. However if we get a very fast run Champion Hurdle I believe that Binocular possesses the armoury to put it up to Hurricane Fly. With Celestial Halo and a fresh and respected Overturn setting a good gallop Binocular may well get his optimum conditions and at 5-1 is the each way selection.
<span style="font-size: large;]David Nicholson Hurdle
Quevega - This Willie Mullins trained daughter of Robin Des Champs is easily the greatest mare of her generation. She completed a hat trick of victories in the David Nicholson mares hurdle over 2m 5f at the festival on her first start in the 2010/2011 season. Always travelling well and jumping slickly she was not extended in beating Sparky May by 10 lengths. She followed this up by retaining the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown over 3 miles in April, overcoming a mistake at the last to beat her stable mate Mourad by 1 ¼ lengths. She has become the Irish banker at the Cheltenham Festival for the last three years and it will take something really extraordinary to lower her colours in the 2011/2012 David Nicholson.
Our Girl Salley – After below par efforts at Naas and Punchestown in the early part of the season, Prunella Dobb’s classy mare returned to form with a fine 4 length third to Mikeal D’Haguenet at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) in December. She returned to winning ways by capturing the Grade 3 Mares Hurdle at Leopardstown (good to soft) over 2m 4f in December by 2 ½ lengths from Stephanie Kate. She travelled to Ascot (good to soft) for her final start where she contested a Grade 2 Mares race over 3m. In a slowly run race, she finished a 2 ¾ length third to Violin Davis. This was her first attempt at this trip and probably found her stamina stretched to the limit. She missed the festival last year after suffering a setback and she will certainly find the 2m 5f trip here more to her liking as three of her four wins over hurdles have come over 2m 4f. However, she is probably just lacking the class of Quevega and Voler La Vedette and may have place prospects at best.
Swincombe Bay (rated 134) – Nick Williams went close to winning the Coral Cup last year with For Non Stop and will be hoping he can fare much better this time round with the classy mare Swincombe Flame. After been beaten on her hurdling debut over 2m 1f at Exeter (soft) in November she managed to justify odds on favouritism on her next two starts at Exeter (soft) over 2m 1f and Wincanton (soft) over 2m, both in December. These resulted in an official rating of 123 which ensured she was lightly weighted for a tilt at the Lanzarote Hurdle over 2m 5f at Kempton (good) in January. While not short of pace this step up in trip was expected to be right up her street. After travelling well throughout, she looked like she had lost her chance with a blunder at the last but to her immense credit she rallied strongly to nail Featherbed Lane by a nose on the line, the pair 6 lengths clear of the remainder. In truth, she was ridden like much the best horse in the race and is value for much more. Her final start came in a Class B Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (good to soft) over 2m 3f in February off a 6 pound higher mark and she ran another fine race in finishing 3 ¾ lengths third to Bourne (received 7 pounds). Her hurdling was less than fluent and if she can brush up on this she is well capable of running a big race at the Festival.
Kentford Grey Lady (rated 134) – Emma Lavelle has enjoyed a fantastic season and in Kentford Grey Lady, she possesses a mare of some ability. She ran a real eyecatcher on her second start over hurdles at Exeter (soft) in November behind Dream Function and the winner of the Lanzarote Hurdle Swincombe Flame. In truth she was not given a hard race over the 2m 1f trip. She was stepped up to 2m 5f for her next start at Newbury (good to soft) in November where she was a well backed favourite. Held up out the back, she travelled powerfully before taking up the running approaching two out to run out an easy 5 length winner. She was stepped up to 3m 1f for her handicap debut at Kempton (good to soft) in December where she relished the strong pace to run out an easy 6 length winner. She was stepped up to Grade 2 level for her final start at Ascot (good to soft) in January and was sent off favourite to complete a hattrick against her own sex. She finished ½ length behind Violin Davis who was the recipient of a very good tactical ride by Ruby Walsh. Kentford Grey Lady needs to be delivered off a fast pace and she was undone by the early pedestrian pace. She is rated 134 and has a hell of a lot of improvement to find to be competitive against the crack Irish pair of Voler La Vedette and Quevega. She is however improving at a rate of knots and she may well have scope for enough improvement to shake up the top two in the market.
Baby Shine (rated 125) – Lucy Wadham’s high class bumper horse made a successful hurdling debut over 2m at Leicester in February where she travelled and jumped well before showing an impressive turn of foot to beat Tempest River by 4 lengths. She was stepped up to 2m 5f for his next start at Southwell in February. Tracking a good pace she was hampered badly when making her move 2 out but rallied gamely after the last to fail by a fast diminishing nose to It’s A Gimme (gave 7 pounds). Without that interference she would have won comfortably enough. The winner is rated 142 which gives an idea of the performance displayed by Baby Shine on only her second start over hurdles. She had a tendency to be keen in her bumpers last year and this caught her out in some of the better races that she contested in that sphere, notably when a 3 ½ length third to Swincombe Flame in the Listed Mares Bumper at Doncaster. The latter has won the Lanzarote Hurdle this year and is rated 129. Baby Shine looks more mature this year and her ability to settle better will see her in much better light as steps up in class.
Verdict – Voler La Vedette’s defection to the World Hurdle has taken a lot of gloss off this race and ensures that Quevega will go off at very prohibitive odds. She is the probable winner but is not a betting proposition at those odds. Nevertheless I feel this is a far better renewal with many unexposed types than many people think. I am willing to take an each way chance on Kentford Grey Lady at 14-1 and Baby Shine at 25-1. Granted both have a lot to find on official figures (over 20 pounds) but novices will never run to good marks until they step into open class against high rated opponents. I feel that Kentford Grey Lady and Baby Shine are much better than their current marks and both will be finishing better than most up the Cheltenham Hill.
<span style="font-size: large;]Pulteney Land Investments Novice Handicap Chase
Vino Griego (rated 132) – This second season novice has always been held in high regard by his trainer Gary Moore. He ran a huge race in this race last year off a one pound higher mark. Fitted with first time blinkers he travelled supremely well in the vanguard but tired over the last to finish a very respectable 6 length fourth to Divers. My suspicion is that last year’s renewal was quite a hot contest and looks a much better race than this year. Divers finished third in this year’s Paddy Power off a mark of 144 while the runner up Quantitativeeasing is now rated 153 after winning this year’s December Gold Cup. Vino Griego showed his liking for course and distance on his penultimate visit to Cheltenham when he finished an unlucky second to The Giant Bolster in a Class B Novice Handicap Chase in January 2011, the winner is now rated 160. Vino Griego’s form has been moderate at best this year but should his undoubted ability in a Listed Chase over 3m at Ascot (soft) in January by finishing a 6 length runner up to the classy The Minack. He may well have broken his maiden tag and ruined his handicap mark but for stumbling badly upon landing at the second last. He looks a cracking each way bet and if things fall right he may just land the odds at a nice price.
Hunt Ball (rated 142) – Keiran Burke enjoyed a great final season as a jockey by capturing the Byrne Group Plate with Holmwood Legend and finishing runner up on Sparky May in the David Nicholson at the Cheltenham Festival. Hunt Ball looks like he could be the flag bearer for his career as a trainer. Hunt Ball began the season by winning a Novice Handicap over 2m 5f at Folkestone (good to firm) off the lowly mark of 69. On his seventh and final start over 2m 5f at Kempton (good) in February he defied a mark of 127 with consummate ease. This win ensured that he would qualify for either the Centenary Novice Handicap or the Plate at the festival off his revised mark. He still looks ahead of the handicapper, has shown his ability to handle an undulating track and his assured fencing will be a huge asset in an cauldron like the Cheltenham Festival.
Bless The Wings (rated 138) – This Alan King trained runner is out of the same family as Mysilv. He began the year by winning a Novice Handicap Chase at Exeter (good to soft) over 2m 4f off a mark of 119. He followed this up with a 6 length second to Our Mick off 127 in a similar contest over 2m 5f at Kempton (good to soft) in December. He would have finished much closer but for a mistake three out. His final run at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January off a three pound higher mark highlighted his Festival credentials as he ran out an impressive 2 ½ length winner over 2m 5f. He was value for much more than the official winning margin as he idle after the last.
Verdict – This race became a 0-140 race for the first time last year. This certainly changed the whole dynamics of the race as only eight pounds separated the entire field last year. In any festival handicap you are looking for a horse that still has a few pounds in hand and this applies even more so to this race as horses that have won one of their first two runs over fences have a poor record. Horses have only shown some of their true ability very late with the last five winners recording a first or second place last time out. Last year’s bottom weight ran off a mark of 132 (the winner Divers), thus horses who have failed to achieve a rating of 130+ will struggle to get in.
Havingotascoobydo was my original fancy for this race but unfortunately is out for the season after picking up an injury. Bless The Wings was ultra impressive on his final start over course and distance and is a good play at 12-1 each way to extend the fine recent run of the Alan King yard. I also cannot resist backing Vino Griego at 33-1 each way as some day everything will fall right for this talented gelding and will land a decent pot.
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Fenway Park’s Cheltenham preview continues with this preview of the second day’s racing.
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<span style="font-size: large;]National Hunt Chase
Teaforthree – This Rebecca Curtis runner made a more than satisfactory debut over fences when a 12 ½ length third to Ace High at Chepstow (good) over 3m in October. He built upon that performance with a 1 ½ length second to leading RSA candidate Join Together over 3m 1f at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November. He would have gone close to winning this but for making a blunder at the second last. He broke his duck over fences on his third attempt when making all to beat the useful Restless Harry by 3 ½ lengths over 3m at Chepstow (heavy) in December, where he relished the soft underfoot conditions. He was pulled up behind Grand Crus in the Feltham at Kempton (good to soft) in December. Rebecca Curtis was disappointed for running him here as this was a track that was never going to play to the strengths of this relentless galloper. He showed his well-being on his final start over 3m at Chepstow (heavy) in February when easily justifying odds on favouritism in a three runner affair.
Harry The Viking – Paul Nicholls has a terrible record in this race but will be hoping to break his duck with this Alex Ferguson owned runner. He showed plenty of stamina in winning a 3m maiden hurdle at Chepstow (good) on October. Connections wasted no time in sending him over the larger obstacles and one gets the feeling that they had this race in mind for Harry The Viking from an early stage. He made a successful debut over 3m at Towester (good) in November where he was not extended to justify prohibitive odds of 2-11f. He stayed on well to beat the 142 rated Saint Are by ¾ of a length on his penultimate start over 3m at Doncaster (good to soft) in December. On his final start at Doncaster (good to soft) over 3m 2f towards the end of December he showed his battling qualities in holding off the challenge of Ikorodu Road by a head, he was value for much more as he lost a lot of ground after a bad blunder at the fourteen fence and was idling after the last.
Verdict – Only one winner in the last 67 renewals was under the age of seven (Tricky Trickster in 2009). Seven of the last ten winners have finished first or second in their last start, illustrating the importance of recent form. Previous course form is important and so it pays to follow those horses that have run well in novice chases at the Cheltenham in October, November and December. Jonjo O’Neill has a great record in the race, saddling four winners since 2002. Paul Nicholls often has a fancied runner but has yet to record a win in this race and many of his runners have been unplaced. There looks to be plenty of pace on in this race which should play into the hands of the selection Harry The Viking at 8-1 each way. Unlike many others in the field he will relish the decent ground and provided he puts in a clear round he should go close to breaking Paul Nicholl’s duck in the race.
<span style="font-size: large;]Neptune Novices Hurdle
Simonsig – Formerly trained in Ireland up North by Ian Ferguson, this Fair Mix gelding was switched to Nicky Henderson’s care at the beginning of the season. It is testament to the regard he is held that he made his debut over the smaller obstacles in a very hot Grade 2 at Sandown (good to soft) over 2m 4f in December. Travelling and jumping ominously well he looked all over the winner approaching the second last but was outbattled thereafter by the high class Fingal Bay, eventually going down by just under three lengths with the 139 rated Barbatos a further 16 lengths back in third. On his final start in the Class B Morebattle Hurdle over 2m 2f at Kelso (good to soft), he won with his head in his chest at odds of 1-3f. His jumping was sketchy at times and he would need to be much slicker in a race like the Neptune.
Boston Bob – Formerly with Howard Johnson, this Graham Wiley owned son of Bob Back was switched to the Willie Mullins yard at the beginning of the year. He won his maiden hurdle at Navan (good to soft) in the manner of a 4-11 shot. He contested the Grade 1 Navan Hurdle on his latest start over 2m 4f in December where he stayed on strongly from 3 out to burst the Mount Benbulben bubble by 4 ½ lengths. His final start came in the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions over 2m 4f at Leopardstown (heavy) in January where he beat Lyreen Legend by 2 ½ lengths giving the runner up and a high class field 10 pounds in the process. As with his penultimate run, it was a case of the further he went the better he looked. Boston Bob looks to have stamina in abundance. My biggest concern is his ability to be as effective on quicker ground. It was noticeable that he hung left when encountering a sounder surface in a Hexham bumper last year.
Cotton Mill – This John Ferguson trained son of Tiger Hill came to Festival prominence with a ½ length victory over the well regarded Albion Wood in the Grade 2 Neptune Investment Management Leamington Hurdle over 2m 5f at Warwick (good to soft). He travelled really well throughout and showed a likable attitude to repel the challenge of the runner up. One gets the feeling that he won with plenty more in hand than the official winning margin and that he would be more at home on a galloping track than the tight confines he faced here. Prior to those wins he posted effortless victories at Hereford (good) and Fakenham (good) over 2m 5f. He was rated 96 on the level when trained by William Jarvis and posseses plenty of stamina on his Dam side, being a half-brother to Irish Oaks winner Pure Grain. He is bound to improve further for encountering better spring ground, although his jumping would need to be much slicker at the very highest level. Interestingly, No Refuge won the same race at Warwick in 2005 before going on to win the Neptune at the Festival.
Make Your Mark – Gigginstown House Stud won the 2011 running of the Neptune with First Lieutenant and have another live contender in the shape of this Willie Mullins trained son of Beneficial. After easily winning his bumper in November, Mark Your Mark made his eagerly awaited debut over the smaller obstacles at Leopardstown (good) in December where he ran out a very ready winner by 10 lengths. A feature of this effort was how easily he skipped clear once given the office by Davy Russell. His final start came in the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions over 2m 4f at Leopardstown (heavy) in January where he travelled supremely well to two out until getting bogged down in the very heavy ground. In the end he finished 9 ¼ lengths behind his stablemate Boston Bob (gave 10 pounds). Make Your Mark is out of the same family as Wayward Lad and I would expect him to run a very big race back on a decent surface.
Monksland – Noel Meade won the 2006 Neptune with Nicanor and has another live contender in the shape of this Beneficial gelding. After easily winning his bumper at Down Royal (soft) in November, he justified strong market support to make a winning debut over 2m at Navan (soft to heavy) in December. He was then stepped up considerable in class at Naas (soft to heavy) in January for the Grade 2 Slaney Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f. He took this step up in class with aplomb to run out a very easy 4 ½ length winner from a very decent field. All these runs have been on soft/heavy ground but Noel Meade is adamant that he wont be seen at his best until encountering better ground. He relished this step up in trip and showed a very good turn of foot over the last couple of furlongs to put the race to bed. One gets the impression that there is a lot more to come from this lightly raced sort.
Verdict – The Irish have a great record in this race, winning four of the last six renewals. National Hunt bred horses hold sway over their Flat bred counterparts, winning eleven of the last thirteen renewals. It pays to follow those horses with Pattern success, with the Deloitte Hurdle and the Navan Hurdle been key trials in recent years. Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this race with no winner in twenty three attempts while Willie Mullins has won two of the last three renewals.
Boston Bob could run here in preference to the Albert Bartlett. I have a feeling that he might get outpaced over this trip on decent ground and is reservedly passes over. Fingal Bay was my original selection but unfortunately he misses the race after suffering a setback. This leaves the door ajar for Monksland who has been the consummate professional on both starts this year and who promises to improve further for better ground. He is decent value at 8-1 each way. I cannot resist backing Cotton Mill who has impressed me immensely this year and has some nice form in the book. He looks overpriced at 25-1 and I will also be backing him each way.
<span style="font-size: large;]RSA Chase
Grand Crus – There aren’t that many 167 rated hurdlers that go chasing but when you are in a division containing Big Buck’s your options are limited. Grand Crus improved immensely throughout last season as he was stepped up in trip. He was a gallant second to Big Buck’s at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festival. In the Stayers Hurdle at the Festival he served it up to Big Buck’s like no other horse previously, and in that regard he was always going to go to the very top over fences if he could successfully transfer that ability to the larger obstacles. Based on the evidence of his three runs to date he looks like he will surpass his hurdle rating. His most recent run in the Grade 1 Feltham at Kempton (good to soft) was awesome. His fantastic jumping brought him into the lead after the twelfth fence and he only had to be pushed out to record a 2 ¼ length victory over Silviniaco Conti with the high class Bobs Worth a further 3 lengths back in third. Some commentators claim that he was coming to the end of his stamina reserves and that he shows too much pace to truly see out three miles at Cheltenham. His jump at the last fence at Kempton was not that of a tried horse and his course record is fantastic (1121). He has shown his ability to stay the three mile trip out over hurdles and all the great staying chasers such as Kauto Star and Kicking King are/were blessed with pace to supplement their stamina.
Bobs Worth – To my mind the best novice hurdler last year was Bobs Worth. He landed a massive punt when running out a convincing winner of the Albert Bartlett at the festival, taking the step up to 3 miles in his stride. He began his novice chase campaign at Newbury (good) in November where he recovered from a bad mistake 4 out to grind out a neck victory over Cue Card. This race was run over an inadequate 2m 4f and it was noticeable that he jumped out to his left. This tendency was evident in his latest run in the Grade 1 Feltham at Kempton (good to soft). A track like Kempton was never going to play to Bobs Worth’s strengths but he still ran a credible third to the very high class Grand Crus. He was beaten just under 6 lengths but in truth the winner was value for more, with Bobs Worth doing his best work at the finish. He subsequently received a wind operation. He had his final start in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase over 3m at Ascot (good to soft) in February. His jumping was better early on but when the pace lifted he made a number of minor mistakes and a notable one two out which put paid to his chances. Not surprisingly he showed great guts to battle and chase the winner Invictus (received 3 pounds) all the ways to the line where 3 lengths separated the pair. He lacks the scope of some of his contemporaries and ultimately this may prove his undoing. On the plus side, his course record (111), battling qualities and abundance of stamina will stand him in good stead in a test like the RSA.
First Lieutenant – This Mouse Morris trained son of presenting runs in the Gigginstown House colours. The winner of the 2011 Neptune Hurdle at the festival, he began his chasing career with low key wins at Cork in October (good) and November (good to soft). He was then stepped up considerable in class and contested the Grade 1 Drinmore over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) in December. He lost all chance after making a bad blunder at the eight and was eventually pulled up. On his latest start in the Grade 1 Fort Henry at Leopardstown (good) over 3m he jumped noticeably better, perhaps appreciating the better ground. He finished a 6 length second to Last Instalment but would have finished closer but for a slight mistake two out. His canny trainer has a reputation for bringing his stars slowly to the boil and it would be no surprise to see him return to winning ways back on a track that suits him so well.
Join Together – You would have got pretty long odds that Join Together would emerge as the leading RSA contender from Paul Nicholl’s Ditcheat yard at the start of the season. Join Together was a very decent novice hurdler (rated 140) but was pulled up behind Bobs Worth in last year’s Albert Bartlett. He fell on his chase debut at Chepstow (good) in October, but made amends at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November over 3m 1f, where he stayed on well to beat Teaforthree by 1 ½ lengths. Undoubtably his best performance came at the same track in December (good) over 3m 2f where he beat Mossley by 12 lengths with Champion Court back in third. Connections had originally pencilled him in for the National Hunt Chase over 4m but such was the manner of this victory that they have switched their attentions to the RSA. On a line through Teaforthree, he has an awful lot to find with Grand Crus. However, should that horse be directed to the Gold Cup, one could easily see him figuring in what would then appear a very open renewal.
Sir Des Champs – Winner of the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Festival last year, this Willie Mullins trained runner is now unbeaten in six lifetime starts under rules. He opened his account over fences with a very easy success at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) over 2m 5f in December. He was somewhat fortunate to maintain his unbeaten record on his next start at Limerick (heavy) in a Grade 2 over 2m 4f as Knockfierna ran out at the second last when looking the likely winner. He registered his second Grade 2 victory at Leopardstown (good) over 2m 5f in January, where he got up in the dying strides to deny another Gigginstown runner Fists of Fury with the well regarded Hidden Cyclone behind in third. His performances over fences have been more workmanlike than flashy but one gets the impression that he is crying out for a step up in trip. It is no surprise that Willie Mullins stated that the RSA is his most likely Festival target which strengthens further the very strong hand that Gigginstown possess in this race.
Invictus – This Alan King trained runner made a winning chasing debut in a Limited Handicap over 2m 6f at Hereford (good) in November off a mark of 122. He followed that up a month later over 2m 4f at Plumpton (soft) off 130 in the process setting connections up for a £60k bonus if he goes on to win a race at the Festival. With this in mind he was sent to Cheltenham for his next run over 2m 5f in the Grade 1 Dipper Chase in January where he finished a 9 ¾ length third to Champion Court. He never jumped with any of the fluency that marked out his first couple of efforts over fences. It later transpired that he lost a shoe during the race and so may have had a valid excuse. He was much better on his next start in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot (good to soft) over 3m in February, where he jumped and travelled really well to lower to beat the classy Bobs Worth (gave 3 pounds) by 3 lengths with the well regarded Silviniaco Conte further back in fourth. In third you had Alfie Spinner (rated 135) which quality of the form down somewhat. Neverthesless, he should run his race in the RSA where his fencing to stand him in good stead.
Verdict – All winners in modern times have recorded a success in the same calendar year, a statistic that did not apply to last year’s red hot favourite Time For Rupert. The last ten winners all had at least three runs over fences highlighting the importance of fencing experience in a test of this nature. The Irish have a good recent record, winning all three of the last renewals. Seven year olds have won the last six renewals, illustrating what a tough race this is for younger horses. Paul Nichols and Willie Mullins trained runners command respect.
This looks an exceptional renewal which may contain more than one future Gold Cup winner. Grand Crus proved himself to be an exceptional staying hurdler but is blessed with the pace that separates the very good horses from the great. He looks destine to surpass his hurdling rating and I would be confident that he can reverse the poor recent record of favourites in this race. At 9-4 he represents one of the best bets of the meeting. With Kauto Star now a doubtful runner in the Gold Cup there must be a greater possibility of Grand Crus running in the Gold Cup. Should that happen I would be firmly in the Sir Des Champs camp as I feel he will improve massively on all known form for a greater test of stamina. Even if Grand Crus was to run in the RSA, Sir Des Champs may be worth a small saver at 12-1 each way.
<span style="font-size: large;]Champion Chase
Sizing Europe – The reigning champion showed that he is the one they all have to beat with a comprehensive victory in the Tingle Creek at Sandown (good to soft) in December. What made this performance all the more remarkable was that he came on the back of a gruelling second to Quit De La Roque over 3m at Down Royal (soft) in November. Thankfully connections quickly aborted all plans of turning their star two miler into a stayer. He confirmed himself as the outstanding 2m chaser on his final start in the Grade 2 Tied Cottage at Punchestown (heavy) in February where he readily despatched the challenge of his old foe Big Zeb by 15 lengths. As good a jumper as you are likely to see over two miles, it’s not difficult to see him retaining his 2m crown.
Big Zeb – The 2010 Champion and 2011 runner up is now rising 11 and no 11 year old has won the Champion Chase since the great Moscow Flyer. With victories this year in the Grade 2 Fortia Chase at Navan (good to soft) and the Grade 1 Dial A Bet Chase at Leopardstown (good), he showed little sign of regressing as his performances where on a par with last year’s efforts in the same races. His final effort in the Grade 2 Tied Cottage at Punchestown (heavy) in February was disappointing as he trailed in a 15 lengths behind Sizing Europe. Granted the heavy ground would not have been to his liking but the same could be said of Sizing Europe. Ground is all important to Big Zeb and if the going did come up on the fast side of good it would greatly enhance his chances of regaining his 2 mile crown.
Finian’s Rainbow – The freewheeling front runner was runner up in last year’s Arkle where his exuberant jumping was a sight to behold. Ultimately he finished just under 3 lengths behind Captain Chris. He made an encouraging reappearance in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton (good) over Christmas. After making a bad mistake 4 out he was giving plenty of time to recover by Barry Geraghty to nail Wishfull Thinking in the shadow of the post. In doing so he showed tremendous battling qualities, something that I would not have given him credit for before. On his final start in the Grade 1 Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot (good to soft) in January he looked all over the winner but folded tamely enough when challenged by Somersby after the last with 1 ½ lengths separating the pair at the line. Last year’s Arkle form has taken plenty of hits and in hindsight looks a poor renewal. As a 9yo Finians Rainbow is not open to the kind of improvement to allow him to progress beyond the bare form of that race.
Verdict – Unlike the Champion Hurdle, defending champions have a particularly poor record in this race, with ten of the last eleven winners failing to successfully defend their crowns. The Tingle Creek at Sandown has proved the best recent trial with eight of the last eleven winners of this race going on to win the Champion Chase. Four of the last ten Arkle winners have gone on to win the Champion Chase in the following year. Only one winner since 1997 has been older than nine (Moscow Flyer 2005).
To me Sizing Europe is the banker of the festival at 11-10. Of the four winners of last year’s championship races, he along with Big Buck’s would be the last I would be willing to take on. Genuine challengers are thin enough on the ground with nothing of genuine Grade 1 class emerging from last year’s novice class. His biggest threat may come from the 11yo Big Zeb should the ground be genuinely on the quick side.
<span style="font-size: large;]Coral Cup
Featherbed lane (rated 150) – Formerly trained by Anabel Murphy, Featherbed Lane was switched to the Philip Hobbs yard at the beginning of the season after been purchased by Terry Warner of Roaster Boaster fame. Plans to go chasing were soon aborted after a couple of excellent runs in handicap hurdles. He ran out a cozy winner of a 2m handicap at Ascot (good) in November off a mark of 120. He defied a 9 pound rise in the weights to run out an even easier winner at Aintree (soft) in December where he relished the extra 4f. His best performance to date came in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton (good) in January, where he made stealthy headway to three out before taking up the running approaching the second last. He looked home and hosed after pinning the last flight of hurdles but was chinned on the line by Swincombe Flame. His young rider struggled to organise himself after the last flight and this couple with being in front too soon contribute to his unlucky defeat. He was stepped up to 3m for his final start in the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock (heavy) for his final start where he finished 9 ½ lengths third to Restless Harry. He travelled very well for a long way but had little answer to the front two when they forged clear. A step back to 2m 5f may suit him best at this stage of his career and I would expect him to run a huge race in the Coral Cup.
Get Me Out Of Here (rated 155) – This mercurial Jonjo O’Neill trained and JP McManus owned gelding has been the subject of a fair bit of controversy during the past couple of years but there is little doubt that Get Me Out Of Here is a very talented sort on a going day. He made a promising return at Haydock (good to soft) over 2m 4f in November where he finished a 6 length fifth to Any Given Day. He showed he retained plenty of ability on his next start in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good) in December where he was a clear 1 ¾ length second to the high class Oscar Whisky. His final start came in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle over 2m 1f off a mark of 151, where he finished an unlucky 1 ¼ length second to the high class Zarkandar. He won this handicap off 135 as a novice and where it not for been badly hampered 2 out by the fall of Darlan he may well have regained his crown under an inspired ride by the excellent 7 pound claimer Maurice Lenihan. His Festival record reads 22 and he should make a bold attempt to go one place better in this year’s Coral Cup off a 3 pound higher mark than last year’s County Hurdle, particularly if reunited with his talented claimer.
Module (rated 139) – The Tom George yard has had a fine season and will be hoping this smart French recruit can complement the achievements of Nacarat and Baby Mix. He made his British debut over 2m 1f in a Class B Handicap at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January off a mark of 130. Travelling well throughout, he showed a nice turn of foot after the last to run out a 3 ¾ length winner from Art Professor. Unsurprisingly the Handicapper raised him 9 pounds to 139 for that effort. His three runs in France where characterised by jumping mistakes and he was less than perfect on a couple of occasions at Cheltenham. He clearly possesses a formidable engine and if he can brush up on his hurdling technique should run a big race off his current mark. Interestingly he is out of the same family as Nicky Henderson’s former high class hurdler Blue Royal.
Verdict – Last time out winners and second season hurdlers have a great recent record, winning six of the last seven renewals. As with the County Hurdle, the Totesport Hurdle at Newbury and the Betfair Hurdle at Leopardstown have been key trials. Horses aged eight or older have a poor record, highlighting the importance of following progressive second season hurdlers. No horse rated 147+ has won the race and it pays to focus on horses carry less than 11st 3lbs.
The Stats are certainly against Get Me Out Of Here and Featherbed Land but they are very classy and may well be up to breaking these stats. When I saw the entries I was immediately drawn to Module who shaped as if this extra 4f would suit. The Tom George yard are in cracking form and have many live chances at this year’s Festival and at 14-1 is the each way selection.
<span style="font-size: large;]Fred Winter Novices Hurdle
Hinterland (rated141) – This Paul Nicholls trained inmate was a listed winner over 1m 7f on the level in his native France before making an impressive British debut over the smaller obstacles at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November. Travelling sublimely well throughout, he took up the running four out to record a 3 length win over Hollow Tree. A feature of this race was how well this rangy gelding jumped. On his latest start in ran into a tartar in Baby Mix at Cheltenham (good) in December. He finished a clear 7 lengthy second to the impressive winner but was conceding him 7 pounds. He made is handicap debut at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January off a mark off 141 but was in receipt of an 11 pound weight for age concession. He finished a 5 length third to Module but ran a very credible race for one so inexperienced. Connections stated that the Fred Winter rather than the Triumph will be his Festival target. Off his mark of 141 he will probably carry top weight but this classy and well configured gelding is well equipped to run a big race.
Vendor (rated 129) – The market for the Fred Winter is headed by Alan King’s French recruit Vendor. He made his British debut at Newbury on soft ground towards the end of December where he survived a mistake at the last to rally strongly to beat Tango De Juilley (gave 10 pounds) by 1 ½ lengths. For a horse whose hurdling career in France had been blighted by jumping frailties he had hurdle well up to that point. He has been giving a mark of 129 by the handicapper and with connections believing that he will improve for better ground he will go into the Fred Winter with a live chance. I would question whether his bare form is deserving of such a prominent place at the head of the market and his lack of experience would also be a negative for me.
Verdict – All seven winners were beaten on their first two starts over timber with five of those winning their final start. Three of those were the highest rated flat horse. David Pipe has a great record in this race with a winner, two seconds and a third in the last five years.
Alan King rates Vendor on a par with his Triumph candidates Grumeti and Balder Succes. If this assertion is correct then Vendor may be a stone well in for his handicap debut. At 4-1 he is the selection.
<span style="font-size: large;]Champion Bumper
New Year’s Eve – This John Ferguson trained son of Motivator is a half-brother to Wille Mullins talented novice hurdler Midnight Game. He made an impressive debut at Ludlow (good to soft) in January. Despite been keen early on he made eye-catching progress 4 out before showing a telling turn of foot to run out an easy 5 length winner but was value for a lot more. He was even more impressive on his final start at Market Rasen (good to soft) in February. In a truly run race he took up the running 3 out before showing an electric turn of foot to run out an 8 length winner, again value for a lot more. It is quite significant that connections have decided to aim this 4yo at the Champion Bumper in preference to Population. The later has looked one of the best bumper performers this year and would have been a serious player in the Champion Bumper. That in itself is quite significant and although his talented rider will not be able to use his claim he will get a seven pound allowance for being a 4yo. Cue Card won this race as a 4yo in 2010 and New Year’s Eve looks an even pacier sort.
Fickle Fortune – Noel Meade could barely curb his enthusiasm for this daughter of Heron Island after she easily won her bumper at Down Royal (heavy) in February. Despite been very keen early on she made very smooth progress under a patient Nina Carberry to lead entering the final furlong to record a 2 ½ length success. In truth she was value for a lot more and rates a mare which huge potential. She is out of the same family as Jessica Harrington’s former high class mare Spirit Leader and so decent ground should not be an inconvenience to this four year old.
Moscow Mannon – Winner of a good ground bumper at Galway in July by a neck, this Brian Hamilton trained son of Moscow Society won a competitive bumper at Fairyhouse (heavy) in December by 4 ¾ lengths from Joxer. The runner up has gone on to run with great credit over hurdles subsequently. Moscow Mannon really established his festival credentials on his final start at Gowran Park (heavy) in January where he easily despatched the challenge of Willie Mullins well regarded Morning Royalty by seven lengths. My concern for his supporters is the fact that he has been on the go since last June. In addition his two most impressive wins have been on deep winter ground whereas his win in Galway on good ground would be well below the standard required for a race like this. All his wins have been on righthanded tracks so his effectiveness lefthanded must be taking on trust.
The New One – Nigel Twiston Davis has made no secret of the high regard that he holds this son of King’s Theatre. He made a winning debut in a Junior Bumper on good ground at Warwick (good) in November. He followed this up victory in a hot Listed Junior Bumper at Cheltenham (good to soft) on Trials Day. Travelling well throughout, he devoured the hill to run out a 1 ¾ length winner from Chancery (well beaten since). The Champion Bumper is a tough race for a 4 year old but The New One would seem to possess the ideal blend of speed and stamina to make him a genuine player.
Royal Guardsman – Prior to the 2011 Festival there were rumours that there was a bumper horse working all over Cue Card on the gallops. If rumours are to be believed the name of this horse was Royal Guardsman. He made an impressive debut that April at Fontwell (good) where he showed an impressive turn of foot to beat Grab The Glory (rated 120 over hurdles) by 11 lengths. Not surprisingly he was sent off a warm order to follow up at Aintree in October (good) but had to settle for fourth beaten 7 ¾ lengths by Sir Johnson. He travelled well but may have been inadvertently hit on the head by the winning jockey’s whip and so may have had a valid excuse. He was not seen again until Ascot in February where he demolished a quality field by 7 lengths. This was a fine performance as the race was run at a good clip and Royal Guardman was able to show a telling turn of foot off this gallop. This performance deservingly propelled him near the top of the Champion Bumper market and the Tizzards will be hoping that he can repeat the 2010 success of Cue Card in this race.
Champagne Fever – Winner of a point to point at Quakerstown (good), this Stowaway gelding made his eagerly awaited racecourse debut at Leopardstown (good to soft) over Christmas. Not surprisingly, he was sent off the 4-5 favourite but had to settle for the runners up spot behind Thomas Edison, beaten 4 ½ lengths. He was keen early on which did not help his cause but that should not detract from the performance of the impressive winner. On his final start at Fairyhouse (soft) in January he made all to run out an easy 13 length winner. He looks like the leading Willie Mullins contender and so automatically commands respect. Although he won his point to point on good ground, progeny of his sire usually prefer some cut in the ground.
Verdict – The Irish have won ten of the last fourteen renewals with Willie Mullins winning six runnings of the race. The English have won the last two renewals. Four of the last five winners entered the race unbeaten while five of the last nine winners did not win in the same calendar year.
If there is a future Champion Hurdler amongst this class I feel it is New Year’s Eve or Royal Guardsman and they are taken to extend the recent English dominance in this race. I am happy to back both at 11-1 and 12-1 respectively each way.
http://www.thefreekick.com/blog/?p=3148]Read the full story here
Binocular will be hard bet
Gas reading these tards that respond to Paul Nichols posts on facebook
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Sue Blundell I trust Ruby is ok? He hasn’t been mentioned so presume he didn’t hurt himself. Bet he’s devastated. 
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Angela Mcavan sorry to hear this, wishing kauto all the best…we all love him, what a legend he is.would rather have him out cheltenham if its the best thing for him. well done paul and clive for putting kautos welfare first. x
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Dawn Dingle Just pls make sure he is 100% if he runs. Would be better he stays in one piece than risk him although we would love to see hin race good luck getting him back to health x
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Chris Tuohy I know paul will do whats in the best interest of this racing legend, i would much sooner see long run win the gold cup without kauto star, than see kauto beaten because he just wasnt ready, i have never believed long run could beat a healthy fit kauto star and i believe this year he has gone a long way to proving that point
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Janice Ratchford Burgess-hall Good luck paul and get well soon kauto star xx
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The worse thing is that the facebook update is direct from his twitter feed so he won’t even be aware of these tards comments.