Cheltenham Day 3
1.30 Turners – Mighty Potter has looked exceptional this year, following impressive wins in the Drinmore and DRF. However, he bombed out in the Supreme last year, having reportedly travelled over badly. That is enough to put me off at the likely prohibitive odds. Banbridge looks the play here. He was a good winner of the Martin Pipe at last year’s Festival over this course and distance. He ran well over an inadequate trip at DRF, doing all his best work at the end. Granted a decent surface, which he relishes, he must go close.
2.05 Pertemps – A typically difficult puzzle to solve. Irish horses must shoulder the ‘Irish penalty’, which makes life tougher. In addition, English horses have been getting rated considerably easier compared to hitherto. Two horses stand out to me as being well handicapped, namely The Bosses Oscar of Gordan Elliott and Walking On Air of Nicky Henderson.
The Bosses Oscar was second in this race two years ago off 151. He lost his confidence over fences which has resulted in a return to the smaller obstacles. He showed that the ability is still there on his last start at Musselburgh. His mark has dropped to 142, and he looks well treated on his back form.
Walking On Air is a bit of a talking horse. Such is the regard he is held that he was sent off 9-2 for a Grade 1 at Aintree last year on only his second start. He has been brought along slowly this year, winning his qualifier on his final start at Exeter. Rated 138, this could greatly underestimate the ceiling of his ability.
Ryanair Chase – Shishkin is one of the week’s bankers for most punters on the back of a return to form in the Ascot Chase, where he relished the step in in trip to run out an impressive winner. My concern is that he has shown trouble backing up big performances in the past. When winning the Arkle, he ran moderately at Aintree. Similarly, he failed to back up his win in the Clarence House in last year’s Champion Chase. Having said all that, this looks a weak race and he could run well below his best and still have enough class to win. The horse with the most potential to improve over this sort of trip is Blue Lord of the Willie Mullin’s yard. He was third in last year’s Arkle, a race that has subsequently worked out quite well. He marked himself out as a much improved performer this year with a breath taking victory over the minimum at Leopardstown in December. He inexplicably bombed out when long odds on at DRF, a run too bad to be true. I just feel, he is the unexposed horse in the field and the one with grade 1 potential to perhaps put it up to a Shishkin, should the latter fail to produce his best.
3.30 Stayers Hurdle – A great renewal where a case could be made for a half dozen of horses. Flooring Porter goes for a hattrick of victories, but must do so on the back of a substandard campaign. If he was back to his best, he would be the one to beat, as you could see him getting another uncontested lead and bossing the race from the front.
Teehupoo is probably the best of the Irish and brings the best form into the race. He lowered the colours of Honeysuckle and KLassical Dream in the Hattons Grace and then proved his stamina in the Galmoy Hurdle. His best form is righthanded and ground seems very important to him. If the ground is soft or worse, he would take all the beaten but on a decent surface there is enough of a question mark, to pass his over.
The one I like is Maries Rock, winner of the Mares Hurdle at last year’s Festival. She brings a high standard of form to the race. She won the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 4f on her last start, readily beating a decent field of geldings. She races like this step up to three miles will suit, and if it does, she will be very hard to beat, in receipt of the mares allowance.
4.10 Plate – Again, hugely competitive where a strong case could be made for any number of runners. The two I have come down on are Midnight River of Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson’s Fusil Raffles. The former brings this year’s best form line while the latter brings a strong line of form from last year.
Midnight River was third in the Paddy Power in November off 145, with Ga Law (now 152) and French Dynamite (now 152) ahead of him. He won over this course and distance in January off 145. In fourth place was Il Ridoto, who won the equivalent race on Trials Day. Midnight River races here off 152 but on a track that plays to his strengths, he may well still be ahead of the handicapper.
The other one I like is Fusil Raffles, who brings a lot of class to the race. He has yet to run this year. On his penultimate run last year, he finished fourth over course and distance in the December Gold Cup and may well have won but for a terrible mistake mid race. That effort was off 153.
4.50 Mares Novice – In most years you would concentrate on the Irish mares, given their strong record in this race. However, the English won this with Love Envoi last year and I suspect they will win it again with Nicky Henderson’s Luccia. She would not look out of place in the Supreme and would be close to the top of the market if she pitched up in that race.
5.30 – Kim Muir – No strong opinion in this race.
I don’t give him any chance this year. There’s at least 5 obvious plots. My process for a race like this is to look for a horse who’s been winning or hitting the frame rather than one who’s been held back. So Scottish is obvious based on that and priced accordingly. I’m drawn to Seddon and Fugitif amongst that pack.
