Cheltenham-Early thoughts

One of the bells or Shane’s hills was second or third in a supreme.

I had myself convinced Crack Mome was gonna win it one year :zipper_mouth_face:

Interesting too Ruby napped him today for Sunday and my sources tell me he worked well during the week as well.

If he wins well on Sunday he’ll shorten up significantly.

What might be interesting of willies novices entered for the supreme only micro manage and appreciate it weren’t entered in the county hurdle.

It might be nothing of course but blue Lord is in the county…

My last thought of the night is how far does kauto riko win the ultima by? Fresh and 3 miles will see this fella take a bit of beating imo. 33s is miles too big.

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Has he raced 3m or more? If its on the good side of good to soft hard to know would it suit him.

I fancied Copperhead for it.

@BeTimberin - I mentioned on the equine thread at the start of the season that Gabynako and Vanillier had been flagged as 2 of the best novices that Gavin Cromwell had handled. Both have showed promise but been slightly underwhelming.

Vanillier ran what I think will turn out to be a cracker of a race behind Farouk D’Alene in Limerick over Xmas in a race that is always a good Albert Bartlett trial. I expect both to be in contention turning for home and their prices are miles apart. I’ve backed both.

Gabynako is even more interesting. Has ran in Graded company over 2m and 2.5m and looked like he’s needed the extra distance. He’s probably just below Grade 1 company. He was entered in the big handicap in DRF over 2 miles and I fully expected him to blaze a trail and use his stamina. He was well tucked in and caught for toe as you’d expect.

The DRF run made no sense until the handicap entries came out. Gabynako entered in the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe off over a more favourable distance. Also holds entries in the big novice races. I landed on the theory that the run in DRF was to give him experience in the hustle and bustle of a big handicap. What’s more interesting is that Conor Mac is still eligible to ride him in the Martin Pipe I think and he’s a jockey Cromwell has huge trust in.

The Martin Pipe is a race full of plot horses but here we’ll have a horse with Graded Novice form over his ideal trip with one of the best conditional jockeys available at the moment. At 20/1 NRNB I think it’s a savage punt. If he goes for the Coral Cup or Ballymore then we’ve lost nothing but I do smell a plot here.

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Good man…The Martin Pipe was my question.

I’m debating a long odds eway Lucky 15. Analysis such as this is brilliant! I’ve already digested @fenwaypark 's advice.

Tip of the cap

I threw a mug NRNB Ew lucky 15 on today of

Gabynako - Martin Pipe 20/1
Patroclus - Ballymore 33/1
Micro Manage - Supreme 50/1
Minella Indo - Gold Cup 12/1

All 4 could end up not running for a variety of reasons or all 4 could be in contention jumping the last.

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I looked at Patroclus this week post the win. Dai Walters has those colours yes? He has quite a few horses in training.

I’m staying a mile away from the gold cup. It’ll be a speculative bet or nothing. I wouldnt put you off backing a pacemaker in it.

Yep, Waters colours which means Dai will want a runner. Whoever had him down Limerick way raved about him and he was sold for big money. Wasn’t fully right for his P2P I think. He’s won 2 muddling races and been beaten but yet has done everything wrong each time and still been in a position he shouldn’t be. Still developing and a proper test should suit him. I’ll happily pay to find out at those prices

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Just cashed all my ante-post bets for Cheltenham. It’s back to the drawing board.

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Is this thing still going ahead after all that’s come out about the horsey set and all the lives it cost last year?

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The horsey set don’t care for human or hosery lives

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It shouldn’t; they don’t give a fuck

Why wouldn’t it? You’d little or no issue with the champions league or six nations going ahead this year and they ran as normal as the same week as Cheltenham last year?

Evidently not.

Murder is a part of their sport.

cc @BruidheanChaorthainn

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