Cheltenham-Early thoughts

Has Aspire Tower been injured? I see he has Champion Hurdle and Stayers Hurdle entries

Yep he was

I’d say concertisa is one of the worst favourites of the week. Darol jacob will probably be riding her too which IMO won’t help. Not sure journey with me should be fav in the ballymore.

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100 percent. She is a bit soft.

I wouldn’t be in love with her jumping. Elimay represents the value imo.

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The green and gold retirement Yankee.

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Who has Pricewise put up for Champion Chase? Nube Negra?

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ANTE-POST PRICEWISE CHAMPION CHASE

‘Surely he’s the one to back each-way’ - Tom Segal takes on the big two

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UPDATED 6:09PM, JAN 12 2022

Nube Negra
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
1pt each-way at 14-1

12/1

Nube Negra3:30 Cheltenham

It’s long odds-on that either Shishkin or Energumene will win the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase as they are both unbeaten over fences and have oozed star quality in a division that has been lacking a superstar since Altior left the scene.

At this stage, I would be firmly in the Shishkin camp as he has two wins at the festival, while Energumene has been dominating small fields on soft ground in his own back yard and has never run at Cheltenham.

That could all change if both were to turn up in the Clarence House at Ascot later this month, but I’ll believe that when I see it and, all things being equal, I reckon Shishkin’s turbo-charged finish will be too much for every other two-mile chaser.

Having said that, it’s hard to suggest backing any horse at around the even-money mark for a race in two months’ time, even if they do go by the name of Shishkin. Consequently, at this stage I think the best option is to try and find the big-priced horses who could sneak into the frame if all the big guns turn up but have a win chance if they don’t.

On form that has to bring in Chacun Pour Soi, who is brilliant on his day but has flopped on the two occasions he’s come over to Britain, and he was injured in the Tingle Creek. At his peak he could give Shishkin a race, but there has to be a huge doubt as to whether we will see him back to his best ever again.

The reigning champion Put The Kettle On looks in desperate need of a step up in trip and the presence of the front-running Energumene won’t help her either, so she’s off the list, while Envoi Allen could hardly be described as impressive when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas.

First Flow would give Shishkin and Energumene something to think about on heavy ground at Ascot, but Cheltenham clearly doesn’t suit him, so the only two who really fit the bill are Nube Negra and Greaneteen.

The latter was impressive at Sandown in the Tingle Creek and he’s twice run well at the festival. He is no forlorn hope to hit the frame, but surely the one to back each-way at this stage is last year’s unlucky second Nube Negra.

Twelve months ago he did nearly everything right until losing impetus when pitching at the last, but for which he would probably have won.

Nube Negra (right) wins the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham in November

Nube Negra (right) wins the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham in November

John Grossick (Browse & Buy Personalised Photo Gifts | Racing Post Photosales)

Nube Negra came back better than ever when hacking up in the Shloer Chase over course and distance in a really good time in November, and you can forget his below-par run in the Tingle Creek as it’s pretty clear now that all his best form is after a long break.

Trainer Dan Skelton has made it quite clear that he won’t run again before the festival, and what I like most about him as an alternative to the obvious ones is his run style. Nube Negra’s best asset is how well he travels and he will be held up for a late run. That means he will never get involved in the race until late on, when everything else has been softened up.

Whether he can beat Shishkin, I very much doubt, but he surely has every chance of beating the rest and, in a race likely to cut up, that makes him a decent each-way play.

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I think they are very good picks so far.

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I couldn’t be betting anything in the champion chase. Your playing one for one place realistically.

I think shishkin is definitely better going left handed and I think engermene is better going right handed.

If shishkin beats engermene in ascot I’d say there’s no chance engermene will beat him in Cheltenham all things being equal.

It’s a million to happen but if engermene is well beat in ascot could he end up in a gold cup? He’ll definitely stay three miles. I think he’s a king George horse for next year. Id nearly back him now if I got a big price.

That’s why it’s vital we’ve big clashes throughout the season. It has a ripple effect on so many races.

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Shiskin is real deal. He is altior mark 2. Perfect racehorse. Willies looks good too but Id be firmly in the formers camp.

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Id be of the same opinion. Do think he shifts to the left a little. That Might give engermene a chance going right handed.

If he does, it is so insignificant that he does not matter. Hurricane fly shifted slightly right and never stopped him

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I was only thinking last night about how a fall impacts entire careers. Remember samcro fell in the punchestown champion hurdle as a novice. If he stands up he gets outpaced and his career could turn out very differently.

Who knows what would have happened if asterion forlonge stood up against envoi Allen last year in punchestown.

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Mikael D’Hageneut fell on chase debut and never was the same after.

Willie has had a few, that Quel Esprit had a massive engine and kept falling

There was a horse of Paul Nicholls Ladalko 15 or 16 years ago that fell a few times with big handicaps at his mercy, clumsiest horse I’ve ever seen

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Ruby won the Classic Chase on him at warwick.

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That fucker. He took some amount of my money waiting for him to come right

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Had forgotten that, I do remember him being a massive tall horse.

Me as well!

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Poor @Lazarus busted his favourite guitar over that horse

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