Ireland doing better than they should
By Alan Smith
Saturday, October 20, 2012
When his back was against the wall scrambling for reasons to insist he was the right man for the job, Giovanni Trapattoni, pointed towards the convoluted rankings table.
Ireland are 28th in Fifa’s most recent list but when you take into account other contributing factors to a country’s success, such as population and economy size, it turns out the Boys in Green punched well above their weight for the last 40 years.
Journalist Simon Kuper and economist Stefan Szymanski teamed up two years ago to publish Soccernomics, a book which essentially used numbers to prove or dispel various theories within the game.
By taking into account three factors which impact on a nation’s performance — population, economy and the amount of games the country has played — their study on international sides performing beyond their limitations placed Ireland fifth in Europe and 10th in the world.
Georgia topped the European list, which only counted games between two European teams, and a major caveat is they only played their first international in May 1990, with Yugoslavia (the list dates back to 1980) in second.
The formula found Ireland have consistently exceeded what, considering resources, should be the team’s level especially in the world table, where they are the highest ranking European team overall. Some might insert the ‘golden generation’ argument into the fray, but as the table is based on several generations, it doesn’t stand up.
Results are made up by working out a win percentage and lining it up alongside the aforementioned three factors.
When you compare the population of the country to Germany – who, unsurprisingly, are ranked 38th in their European list – and also the size of the respective economies, then Ireland should, on an average day, lose quite heavily to them every time.
That was the case last weekend but supporters’ expectations, after becoming accustomed to overachieving, meant it was treated as a national tragedy. According to Kuper and Szymanski’s extensive database, the team are doing much better than they should when external factors are accounted for.
European over-achievement table (based on games between Uefa members): 1 Georgia, 2 Yugoslavia (Serbia & Montenegro), 3 Croatia, 4 Iceland, 5 Ireland, 6 Armenia, 7 Czech Republic, 8 Portugal, 9 Netherlands, 10 Bulgaria.
World over-achievement table: 1 Honduras, 2 Iraq, 3 Syria, 4 Iran, 5 New Zealand, 6 South Africa, 7 Brazil, 8 Spain, 9 Australia, 10 Ireland.