We had it good lads but we need to grow up - being able to binge drinking in a packed pub is a thing of the past
Definitely an element of that with them. People are easily frightened in to doing what they are told will be the main take away from all of this when the dust settles. If thereâs another 4 weeks with no spike in deaths or hospital admissions surely they will change their tune. I wonât hold my breath though.
So at a false positive rate of 1% if we test 10,000 people a day then 100 of the cases WILL be false positives.
If the rate is 3% then itâs 300 cases a day of false positives and even at current numbers basically no one has it. 
Should we not be talking about this very loudly?
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The A and E stats since March this year and comparisons to previous years would be interesting
60 in hospital/ creep creep
Dr De Gascun has a history of going off message at times.
The tests are returning up to 30 per cent false negatives.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2015897
Third, measuring test sensitivity in asymptomatic people is an urgent priority. It will also be important to develop methods (e.g., prediction rules) for estimating the pretest probability of infection (for asymptomatic and symptomatic people) to allow calculation of post-test probabilities after positive or negative results. Fourth, negative results even on a highly sensitive test cannot rule out infection if the pretest probability is high, so clinicians should not trust unexpected negative results (i.e., assume a negative result is a âfalse negativeâ in a person with typical symptoms and known exposure). Itâs possible that performing several simultaneous or repeated tests could overcome an individual testâs limited sensitivity; however, such strategies need validation.
Finally, thresholds for ruling out infection need to be developed for a variety of clinical situations. Since defining these thresholds is a value judgement, public input will be crucial.
Lord God help us.
Compelling evidence that lunatics are now running the asylum.
Has anyone noticed that the experts who oppose lockdown and want ah easing of restrictions get far less exposure than the likes of McConkey. Like itâs actually incredible that the media give airtime to MCConkey. This is the man who 1. Reckoned we should stay in lockdown until there is a vaccine 2. Thought any tourists who didnât isolate should get jail and 3. Thinks it would be possible to impose strict lockdown in some parts of Dublin and not others.
The man is one of those lifelong academic weirdos who lives in a bubble, and seems to lack any sort of common sense . Itâs shameful that the media paint him as some expert whose opinion should be valued. Unfortunately some people, particularly elderly people will value his opinion and will be worried by the things he says. Thatâs the real damage but McConkey doesnât give a shit as long as he stays in the limelight and hopefully gets a book or some other earner.
Ronan Collins is a geriatrician in Tallaght Hospital . He helps elderly people, who are the most vulnerable group every day. He made an appearance on prime time two weeks ago where he advocated opening things up as people need their social outlets as it is vital for their mental and physical health. We should be hearing from him regularly but Iâve heard nothing from him since that appearance. Why not have him on? Reason heâs not on is cos he offers a differing opinion from project doom and god forbid rte would have balance
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Spot on. After the scaremonger in chief Ferguson crisscrossed London on several occasions during the lockdown to ride his lover, all academics preaching doom and gloom should have been banned from the airwaves, and in the most extreme cases lined up for a viewing of the @Lazarus guillotine in Eyre Square.
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Have you seen Mcconkeys CV? You are very dismissive of it
Have you seen McDonkeyâs Twitter? You are very naive.
The process is very smooth. There will be a vaccine before Christmas.
My take on it is that we are probably getting a truer picture of how cases got to where they were in April now.
The original graphs for March / April are misleading because they show a near vertical spike, when in reality thatâs just when testing started. Cases would have been gradually creeping up since Christmas then but as there was no testing that early gradual rise doesnât appear on the charts.
I had it back in February sure.
Just goes to show when they were finding a thousand cases a day off less testing there were probably 10,000 cases a day.
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