Coronavirus Thread (Markey hates Immigrants )

[Tank]

@glasagusban

This is a complete breakdown in the relationship, it’s entirely dysfunctional.

It’s an abusive relationship

[Tank]

Am I right in saying we are getting vaccine apartheid, indefinitely, for the whole of Irish society, on the back of one single letter that was delivered late last night?

How do NPHET expect the public to respect this? I thought the Archbishop was an expert of managing public opinion? That his experience helped him recognise the public’s concern over AZ?

[balbec]

It wouldn’t happen in Bertie’s day

[Cheasty]

Surely whatever small gains are made by the Irish vaccine roll out being more Pfizer biased than AZ would be more than offset by the lower numbers vaccinated? To me the UK is by far the best comparison in terms of numbers.

NPHET are conservative because they’ve been bitten before. The whole concept of NPHET at the start was to balance public health and economic considerations but Government continually came down on the side of economic considerations much more than NPHET wanted and left NPHET looking like eejits. NPHET therefore have the moral ground. They can tell the Government, rightly, that Government’s insistence on economic considerations taking precedence backfired spectacularly, and they’d be right. They’re conservative because they have responsibility.

With models now and discussion about them I just roll my eyes. I would trust my own back of a fag box calculations more than I’d trust anything. I would expect UK case figures to hit an average of around 24-25k this week, I think we’ll see it climbing to 27/28k or thereabouts over the coming days, the higher figures usually coming from midweek to the weekend. If we say it took 5 weeks to go from around 2.5k average to 25k average, that’s 3.25 doublings. So your doubling time is around 11 days.

If we start off with an average of 350 cases and pubs open:
11 days later you’re on an average 700
22 days later 1400
33 days later 2800
44 days later 5600
55 days later 11,200

and so on, until panic kicks in.

The reasoned debate about risk will have to be had but it has to be based on evidence and the best evidence will be a UK that opens up fully, with a Delta variant dominant, as they seem intent on doing. And we will have to monitor them extremely closely.

Governments are shambolic. That’s the truth. They are “Yes, Minister” and “The Thick Of It”. And that’s in normal times. Multiply it by 10 for this.

[Tim_Riggins]

It seems to be more about putting them in a position of pure chaos rather than a decision. The Government seemed to be on board with a delay and it was all orchestrated, then this happens, and the government are left looking totally gormless.

[BruidheanChaorthainn]

George Lee is going on about peak won’t be till October

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

Beastie Boys - (You Gotta) Fight For Your Right (To Party) (Official Music Video)

[tallback]

@Cheasty

Surely whatever small gains are made by the Irish vaccine roll out being more Pfizer biased than AZ would be more than offset by the lower numbers vaccinated? To me the UK is by far the best comparison in terms of numbers.

I don’t know. You don’t know either. I’d hope someone in NPHET knows or considers it but considering the black-box approach and simplistic nature of some of their previous modelling I wouldn’t have much confidence.

@Cheasty

With models now and discussion about them I just roll my eyes. I would trust my own back of a fag box calculations more than I’d trust anything.

Grand. that says more about you than anything reasonably approaching a point. To dance your dance though back of a fag box figures would also suggest that a model suggesting more than 2,000 deaths within 3 months in a situation where the total deaths so far are circa 5,000 over 15 months and that was largely accounted from a highly vulnerable cohort who are now almost fully vaccinated seems off the wall too. But hey - maybe different fag boxes.

@Cheasty

If we start off with an average of 350 cases and pubs open:
11 days later you’re on an average 700
22 days later 1400
33 days later 2800
44 days later 5600
55 days later 11,200

and so on, until panic kicks in.

If you think we’d hit 11,200 cases in this country without a) full lockdown being implemented or b) people radically altering their behaviour then you clearly weren’t around for most of the last year. Again, it shows the simplistic nature of the models - they take no account for the fact that if we got anywhere near a worst-case path then things would clearly change.

@Cheasty

Governments are shambolic. That’s the truth. They are “Yes, Minister” and “The Thick Of It”. And that’s in normal times. Multiply it by 10 for this.

Agreed. NPHET and Dept of Health also fully fall under this assessment too based upon actions to date.

[Ralphie]

Wonder which Junior Minister will be wheeled out for Primetime today night

Damo English normally gets the gig

[Batigol]

@tallback

There’s no reasonable basis for keeping every aspect of the model (up to and including code) secret - this has no commercial implications etc.

The only reason I can imagine to do it is to save the blushes of Nolan and his crew. Considering what is at stake I don’t consider that an acceptable reason at all.

I cant understand why this is allowed? Science that isn’t open to criticism isn’t science at all.

[Cheasty]

@tallback

Grand. that says more about you than anything reasonably approaching a point. To dance your dance though back of a fag box figures would also suggest that a model suggesting more than 2,000 deaths within 3 months in a situation where the total deaths so far are circa 5,000 over 15 months and that was largely accounted from a highly vulnerable cohort who are now almost fully vaccinated seems off the wall too. But hey - maybe different fag boxes.

Well, we went from 200 cases on December 1st to 8k cases five weeks later. My back of a fag box calculations would seem a fairly conservative estimate of what could happen.

@tallback

If you think we’d hit 11,200 cases in this country without a) full lockdown being implemented or b) people radically altering their behaviour then you clearly weren’t around for most of the last year. Again, it shows the simplistic nature of the models - they take no account for the fact that if we got anywhere near a worst-case path then things would clearly change.

I don’t. I think if cases reached 5-6k there would be panic and we would backslide on restrictions very quickly. That’s what I’ve been saying for months.

But I’m not the person clamouring for indoor pubs to be opened.

The people clamouring for pubs to be opened now see such a reopening as the end of restrictions. Full stop.

To me it’s a case of choosing between waiting a bit longer, probably tipping along as we are now, for the next month or two versus going now and likely having to backslide within a short time.

[tallback]

It’s amazing how quickly “a week or two” drifts into “a month or two”

[Cheasty]

It is but that’s the nature of what we’re dealing with I’m afraid. It is what it is.

[POTUS]

Stephen Donnelly is going to on Prime Time in a few mins. Could be fun.

[pulpfiction]

He’ll get a free ride as always. RTE won’t bite the hand that feeds it

[Batigol]

Vaccines are becoming mandatory through the back door here. I’m not an anti-vaxxer (I’ve two jabs gotten) but I think that’s a very bad road to go down. I’m much prefer blanket, quick antigen testing to that.

On our latest round of proposed restrictions, we are going to face a situation where an unvaccinated young person can work in a restaurant for 10 hours but not eat in it for 1.

[dodgy_keeper]

@Ralphie

Wonder which Junior Minister will be wheeled out for Primetime today night

Damo English normally gets the gig

Egghead is up.

A pity it’s not Dobbo grilling him again.

[Perez2017]

Why are lads comparing now to December? 50% vaccinated.

[Ralphie]

Miriam defending Govt

[Biff_Egan]

LVA (LVADublinPubs)