Will every week in lock down have an impact or is that extreme?
I remember the last recession and it was obviously extremely tough for so many people. Will it be similar this time? I guess every country is the same so that might help.
Will the governments be forced to repay all this borrowed money or what will happen?
100 year bonds i say. Interest rates are very low. Push it out thats how it was done for centuries. I believe Britain only paid off the loans from the Crimean war in the last 10 years last on these bonds
Government bonds are rarely repaid, they are refinanced. As long as the ECB are willing buyers, which should be the case for the next 2-5 years, the interest cost will be negligible. However problems are stored up for the future if/when things normalise in the medium term
I wouldn’t be optimistic for public finances, even if Covid is resolved in 2021.
Unless McDowell storms to power on a TFK wave, I can see our populist politicians being pressured to converge the dole rate closer to the PUP rate, when we’re going to be looking at 10-15% unemployment until we’ve retrained all the barmen into coders. Likewise the banks will be in trouble again with corporate defaults and now the genie is out of the bottle wrt eviction bans and constitutionality then we could be looking at another ramp up in bad loans.
The classic crisis response of fighting the last war will see the health budget booming to future proof ICU and nurse capacity, without any resultant efficiencies and economies of scale.
Our best hope is the release valve of Australia or Canada soaking up a % of the unemployed and the strength of big pharma and the big tech oligopoly propping up the economy.
Huh?
The temporary eviction bans will be hard to row back on. Previously the argument against then was that it was unconstitutional. After a ban has been in place for 6 months plus it’ll be politically difficult to reinstate
That’s quite a stupid post if you don’t mind my saying so.
I’d expect a lot of private landlords to exit the market after this and leave it to the big boys. What effect that has on available rental properties and prices remains to be seen.
We’re staring down barrel of tax hikes and increasing. social insurance contributions in two years.
The ratio of workers to pensioners is going to tip over to unsustainable in ten to fifteen years. The state won’t be able to pay a state pension to anybody with a private pension and the ps pensions will come under increasing scrutiny.
We had a good run at it all the same.
The demographics will take of themselves
That’d be my take. State pension will be means tested. As should child allowance tbh. Id also expect them to look at child allowance per family.
Ireland is currently as well placed as anywhere in the world due to its foresight and good fortune in being able to ride the MNC horse. What will ultimately dictate Ireland’s fortunes in the long term is the ability to stay aboard. An independent Scotland would hoover up a lot of the fdir from ingerland if in the EU. Costs Vs Expertise really. I have a suspicion that Ireland may be close to peak MNC, but that peak may well last 30 more years. We may well all have drowned by then.
as always we’ll
We’re lucky that our MNCs are concentrated in the most Covid proof sectors of tech and pharma.
The big worry is the amount of sectors that will be completely wiped out. If the pandemic abates we can gradually rebuild tourism and associated hospitality which sadly will won’t be felt across the whole country. A ramp up in house building will protect the trades but non tourist hospitality jobs will be the hardest to replace.
Will be a big challenge for the government to balance the stimulus spending and support measures needed with the medium term requirement to narrow the deficit.
Yes but the MNC jobs are as covid proof as you’ll get, and form the major plank in the economic scaffold imo.
Pharma are employing heavily still … it seems everyone is gonna be working for tech, pharma or as a delivery driver in the next few years.
We’ll also have a public service the size of NI “administering” the various state agencies set up to rebuild Ireland.
I’ve taken on a bit of part-time work driving a delivery van for a furniture crowd and doing a bit of forklift and manup picker operating also … there’s something great about being on the open plains in a big van, like a cowboy on his trusty steed, navigating the harsh terrain full of savage en-gins and outlaws.
I usually throw on a bit of country music and chew some tobacco for the day out delivering.
Is our ability to diversify away from our reliance on multi nationals once Biden wins the election and the oecd can finally proceed and impose a fair international tax system on tech giants.
MNC’s are shedding jobs too and there’s more to come…
That’s the worry. And the diversification should have started years ago. Trouble is no-one in power really gives a fuck about enforced emigration as theyve never experienced it.