Dublin Bay South By Election - Anyone but Mannix

Okay girls, take it back to the toilets pls

Deal!

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Terri Prone themed avatar

This is interesting. Same poll but asked who’d you vote for in a GE.

Your getting a Paddy C avatar if you lose I reckon !

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Labour will be happy enough if Ivana comes a close second here. Could be a decent shot of a seat next time out. Really don’t think Andrews will be overextending himself for Boylan, I always thought it was a strange one for her to accept. A strong second place for her would be a good performance too.

Or maybe “fragrant kate” :smiley:

Last time round Andrews’ crew were mobilised around Pearse Street, wheeling any warm body into the polling station.

Geoghegan 5/6
Bacik Evens

And I think he grabbed a few more second preferences than would be normal for a Shinner.

The shinners could have run Larry Murphy last year and he still would have got in

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If FG lose this seat then what sort of reaction will there be internally?

An awful lot being made on a poll of 500 people though


I just find it very hard to believe that FG will lose this seat in that constituency. They could run one of the Annabel killers and he’d top the poll.

A lot of salt of the earth Dubs in the constituency and a good few guilty middle class types who vote for Labour and the Greens. Hadn’t been a mention of Metro or Luas extension this time round which was a key issue in the last GE.

It suggests FG have picked a poor candidate

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In DBS? I don’t think so. They would likely have done similar to how they did in other middle class constituencies like DĂșn Laoghaire and Dublin Rathdown. They got 9%-12% in those constituencies.

Andrews got 16% and was more transfer friendly. He always had a natural base in the constituency, even though he did piss a few off. I didn’t think he’d get in last time but mobilised well.

Next time out he could find it a bit more difficult, depending on who runs. A stronger Labour is a threat to them, even though Bacik is polling well in more middle class areas. There’s a certain FG seat here in a General and Ryan should get in again. JOC and Andrews would both be looking over their shoulder imo, I suspect JOC will have a loftier position by the next General though that will give him a boost.

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O’Connell is helping out Bacik and that is taking some FG votes. Why O’Connell has behaved like she has is beyond me, she doesn’t appear to have any cop on in a political sense. She’d have been a shoe in if she just played the game a bit and walked back from the choir boys comment.

O Connell got some boost from the Indo group in 2016 when she was in battle with Lucinda Creighton . Never ever so s paper so blatantly favouring a candidate over another

She did, and she had Murphy leaving a whole part of the constituency to her. She went too far with the comments on Varadkar and Murphy, but that can always be walked back on. Supposedly Harris and Varadkar historically did not get on, and Harris went for Coveney. A bit of political savvy and you can always get back in the good books but she made no effort and pissed the local FG base off. Sure Geoghegan was Creighton’s campaign manager, I could see Creighton herself getting back in the good books of FG because O’Connell.

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Creighton is forever tarnished politically in the most liberal constituency in the country for founding Renua. Murphy was toxic to the general population for his performance as Minister but still got elected here so Kate would have romped this if she kept her bib clean.

lock a generation of irish people out of homeowning or threaten a dying woman, youll still be well in with the blueshirts, but god forbid youre a “mouthy woman” such as lucinda or kate. then youll be cast out, never to return.

hopefully leo pays the price at the ballot box for his ill disguised misogyny

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