I think their seat there in a GE is safe though on those numbers. They will never top the poll or get near a seat in a by election in that constituency. Bacik has been promoted by all the media outlets from what I can gather. I hope Geoghan wins tbh
Yeah - By-election will alway be a different dynamic to be fair
IPSOS/MRBI. âsurvey was conducted through personal in-home interviewing in the constituency between last Friday and Sunday, among a sample of 500 adults at 50 points throughout the constituency. The accuracy level is estimated at approximately plus or minus 4.4 per cent. The level of those expressing no view as to their voting intentions was 18 per centâ
Has the IT ever done an opinion poll before on a by election ???
I should add that if Bacik wins, then it makes it a lot harder for SF to retain the seat the next time. Theyâd need to squeeze out Ryan or OâCallaghan (prob the latter).
This isnât just any by election mate
No then 
Lynn gone out to 5/1, Geoghan 8/13
Iâd have little or no faith in that poll. FGs actions over the last number of days shows theyâre scared of the numbers boylans is getting in their own constituency polls.
Iâd say boylans will be comfortably over the margin of error and both bacik and geogheghan will be below the MOE
Fair point actually. Iâm not sure her vote would be anywhere near 22% in a General election though. I suspect a lot of that is Eamoâs personal vote on loan for this one off.
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Who knows. Thatâs the thing about Irish political polls, thereâs often something for everyone and then if you donât like it you discredit it!
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Fianna FĂĄil are finished in Dublin based on that
Geoghegan will win this comfortably. If FG canât win this then they are in serious bother. Youâre not going to get SF topping a constituency like that.
If that poll is accurate Bacik is winning this seat. She will eat Geoghegan on transfers.
Another thing Iâd say is that the poll itself is a big boost for her because it creates the perception she is the major challenger to Geoghegan.
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Since battle commenced in the Dublin Bay South byelection campaign called after Eoghan Murphyâs retirement from politics, observers and some participants have billed it as a contest between Fine Gael and Sinn FĂ©in.
And Fine Gaelâs James Geoghegan, fighting in what is a traditional stronghold for the party, certainly faces a strong challenge. But on the basis of todayâs special Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI byelection poll in the constituency, his challenger will be Labourâs Ivana Bacik, rather than Sinn FĂ©inâs Lynn Boylan.
Neither Fianna FĂĄil candidate Deirdre Conroy nor the Green Party candidate Claire Byrne is really at the races. On the evidence of Mondayâs numbers, the contest is between Geoghegan and Bacik .
Caveats
Some caveats are necessary. The 500 sample (at 50 points throughout the constituency) is standard for a single-constituency poll but gives us a larger margin of error, at 4.4 per cent, than is typically the case with national polls. Also, there is a week and a bit to go in this campaign, and many voters will only really focus in on their choice in the last week. And turnout is notoriously difficult to predict. All that having been said, itâs clear that Fine Gael is in the driving seat.
The reason for that is this is not a constituency which is, on the whole, dissatisfied with the way this Government is running the country. That is the strongest wind in Geogheganâs sails. The satisfaction ratings for the Government are comfortably in the net positive space, with 55 per cent of people across the constituency as a whole saying they are satisfied with how the Government is running the country, with 38 per cent saying they are dissatisfied.
Satisfaction ratings are highest among voters aged 65 or older (65 per cent); among those living in the Rathgar/Rathmines area (63 per cent), among the wealthiest ABC1 voters (63 per cent); amongst homeowners without a mortgage (76 per cent) and with a mortgage (65 per cent).
These are also the groups which show the highest support for the Fine Gael candidate, who has assumed the mantle of the Government candidate in a pro-Government constituency. That, at its simplest, is why he is in the lead, the poll suggests.
Class divide
The division by class and area is best seen when comparing the Fine Gael and Sinn FĂ©in candidates in the wealthiest and least wealthy parts of the constituency. Sinn FĂ©in candidate Lynn Boylan is at 26 per cent in the South East Inner City/Ringsend area â but at just 4 per cent in Rathmines/Rathgar. The position of James Geoghegan is reversed. He is at 34 per cent in Rathmines/Rathgar but just 10 per cent in the South East Inner City/Ringsend.
Looked at another way, and the division is just as clear. Across the constituency Sinn FĂ©in is at 27 per cent among working class C2DE voters, but just 7 per cent among ABC1 voters. Fine Gael is at 31 per cent among the ABC1s and 16 among C2DEs.
Suburban appeal
Bacik is the challenger to Geoghegan because unlike Boylan, she has a strong appeal in the âsatisfied suburbsâ -âin fact, she is twice as strong in wealthier areas as she is in the more working class areas in the constituency. Her appeal is strong across the board to voters of other parties, too.
One of the strongest narratives since the last election has been the growth of Sinn FĂ©in. If todayâs results are replicated when the actual votes are cast next week, it will suggest that the project of extending the partyâs reach into the middle classes â in this constituency at least â has much work to do.
That wonât be much comfort for Fianna FĂĄil, whose campaign for Deirdre Conroy has failed to ignite, these numbers suggest. A byelection flop would dent the recent good news for MicheĂĄl Martin from the national polls, but with the complicating factor that this is the constituency of Jim OâCallaghan, Martinâs perceived rival for the party leadership. And OâCallaghan, as Martin loyalists will remind everyone, is the director of elections.
Green Party candidate Claire Byrne wonât challenge for the seat on the basis of these numbers but is performing okay, and will be a magnet for transfers. Todayâs poll bears out the national picture for the Greens since the party entered government â there just hasnât been the collapse that many predicted.
The arithmetic of a byelection âwhen there is only one seat contested, and so the quota is 50 per cent plus one â works differently to a general election, when the quota is 20 per cent for a four-seater like Dublin Bay South. This means that the transfers will be decisive, and while the order of candidates in the first preference votes is usually not upset by transfers, the data today suggests that things are tight enough to keep Bacik in the hunt.
The Labour candidate should do well on second preferences, the poll suggests (with 19 per cent) though Geoghegan is also strong, on 15 per cent. There is also some evidence of âcoalition coherenceâ, with the data suggesting a particularly strong transfer from Fianna FĂĄil to Fine Gael. Bacik also does well on third preferences, the poll suggests, at 16 per cent, with Geoghegan at 10 per cent.
Issues
Voters in the constituency were also asked whether local or national issues would most influence their vote, and two-thirds opted for national issues.
Of those who said that local issues would influence their vote, almost half mentioned housing-related issues. Even in this most affluent of constituencies, housing is the subject on votersâ minds.
Voters were also asked how they would vote in a general election, with the results as declared voters as follows: Fine Gael 37 per cent, Fianna FĂĄil 13 per cent, Greens 13 per cent; Sinn FĂ©in 15 per cent; Labour 10 per cent; Social Democrats 4 per cent; People Before Profit 2 per cent; AontĂș 1 per cent; Independents 4 per cent.
Youâd expect so alright. I think the perception that heâll stall on transfers is incorrect, even in 2020 FG did ok with transfers but sheâll definitely pick up more from SF, Greens, SD anyway.
Itâs prob a pro and a con to be seen up the front. It makes her utterly credible but Iâd say Iâd know who SF will be chasing after now for instance.
Iâm willing to bet my username boylans will be outside the MOE, are you willing to bet yours that she will be within it?
I think youâre overestimating Boylan here. She has a good profile but SF are not actually that strong in the constituency. Andrews had a local ground crew which beefed them up. I wonder how enthusiastic Andrews is of having another heavy hitter in the constituency, there are certainly not two seats for SF there.
I may not frequent the Boylan campaign areas but she seems to be the quietest of all the major parties. PbP and the Soc Dems have as many posters about the place and Iâve seen their crews going around.
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Iâll take it for SF below 20%
Thatâs nearly double the MOE!!
Ill give you an alternative bet: bacik to be eliminated before boylan. If not, then you get to choose my avatar and username for a month. If boylan lasts longer then I get the choice for your username and avatar