It’ll make it really interesting next time around.
Def FG and SF seat there no matter what.
That would leave 2 from Eamonn Ryan, Bacik, Jim O’Callaghan (and perhaps pressure from FG and SF no 2).
1 Like
Is there a def FG seat next time? If they run Geoghegan then I doubt it? Who are their other options?
I’d say there is. A candidate like Bacik only gets elected on a by election.
2 Likes
You’ve been underestimating Bacik from the start. People are still nostalgic for Mary Robinson, back before she destroyed herself, and Bacik reminds them of that.
This is still a good day for SF.
Labour are possibly benefitting from their fairly teflon approach to the lockdown also.
1 Like
Bloody nose for Leo. His man is taking a hiding. I am surprised how poorly he is doing
Rock solid. He’ll prob get mid twenties this time which will always get you a seat there. Also in a GE voters tend to have more focused minds and are thinking about governments - FG will always do well in that constituency as a result. Plenty of normal FG voters in the last week have said they’ll vote Bacik this time - a bit of a one off I’d say
Depends who FG run though. Ryan and SF would be safe seats I would say. I’d imagine the vast majority of Bacik’s vote are middle class women, she’s pushed the feminist rhetoric really hard in her campaign.
If KOC and Bacik were both to run then they are more or less targeting the same demograph. I’d imagine Jim O’Callaghan’s profile will see him through in that constituency. FG need a big candidate there next time around, they seem to have a bunch of clowns there though if Geoghegan was their choice.
Where from though? I’d imagine a candidate like Jim O’Callaghan would eat into the Geoghegan vote which has been horrific this time round. He’s not a good candidate.
He was a pathetic candidate. Who in their right mind ever thought he could win the seat needs to be removed from their position. Also didn’t help that Harris was the director of elections. The whole campaign from FG has just been as pathetic as the candidate.
1 Like
This suggests that Geoghegan is pretty toxic. The late revelation that he’s an uncle who’s the head of a vulture fund killed him off completely.
Ah you’re probably right that he’d get mid 20s but why would he do so much better in a GE than a by-election?
He was a pathetic candidate but he’s still going to get close to 20%. Anyone thinks FG won’t get a seat here in a general lives in the clouds.
2 Likes
Why would anyone be a Garda nowadays? Phones in your face. A pair touch of the arm and “assault” screamed
1 Like
The only chance that FG don’t get a seat there next time round is if the party nationwide slumps to about half of their current numbers. Even then, in this constituency, I’d say they’d prob get a seat.
It just is what it is. In reality they’d always be hoping for 2 here. Obviously candidate selection is important but it’s not the be-all.
I’d say Jim O’Callaghan is very vulnerable. FF vote in Dub is collapsing, it’s not even that much of an old FF constituency and he’s struggled to get to quota in previous years.
If I was guessing now I’d say 1 FG, 1SF, 1Green (and last seat a dog-fight between Lab,FF)
1 Like
I think Claire Byrne and Bacik are also targeting the same demographic and some of that will leak back to Bacik when Ryan runs instead. Bacik is really picking up votes from across the board. I think she’ll do well at a GE and take some from FF, FG and Greens and less so from SF. But the strength of each candidate then will determine how much they’ll lose to her. FG have a huge starting number though and even with a tobacco candidate you’d expect them to always get in.
1 Like
They’ll soon be without a seat in that constituency because he’s a very poor candidate. When you add in Ryan who topped the poll last time around and O’Callaghan who is a thoroughbred D4 head with his legal and rugby background and RTE links then it’s a dogfight.
SF should be comfortable enough with their working class support whereas all the other candidates are scrapping for the middle class vote. Bacik seems to have won this on a feminist ticket. She looks like she has added the KOC vote onto the Labour base.
1 Like
If Leo Varadkar had looked in here back in late April and early May and he would have avoided this humiliation for Fine Gael. None of this was difficult to predict, to be fair. Kate O’Connell would have absolutely walked this. When she wasn’t a candidate, the highest profile liberal woman was always likely to benefit.
Good riddance
If they can re-elect an imbecile like Eoghan Murphy after his performance as a minister in the last government then FG will always get a seat here.
Would imagine O’Callaghan has the profile though in that constituency. Geoghegan just looks like a terrible candidate with loads of skeletons in the closet and error prone on a camera.
This should have been a banker for FG. A by-election should be bread and butter for FG here.