Dublin Bay South By Election - Anyone but Mannix

[tallback]

@Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy

Would imagine O’Callaghan has the profile though in that constituency. Geoghegan just looks like a terrible candidate with loads of skeletons in the closet and error prone on a camera.

This should have been a banker for FG. A by-election should be bread and butter for FG here.

O’Callaghan got less than 14% last time round and got the last seat without reaching the quota. He’s extremely vulnerable

[Tank]

An important factor today was the risk of the constituency being left without a single female TD. All the female candidates benefitted from that (except oddly FF) and that won’t be a factor in the same way at a GE.

[Tank]

He’s not closely associated with MM though, he’s about as far from MM as you can get in FF. It’s hard to know how that would influence things though because really you’d only need about 20% to get elected and every constituency has that amount of LIDTFers who probably support MM.

[Cheasty]

@tallback

The only chance that FG don’t get a seat there next time round is if the party nationwide slumps to about half of their current numbers. Even then, in this constituency, I’d say they’d prob get a seat.

It just is what it is. In reality they’d always be hoping for 2 here. Obviously candidate selection is important but it’s not the be-all.

I’d say Jim O’Callaghan is very vulnerable. FF vote in Dub is collapsing, it’s not even that much of an old FF constituency and he’s struggled to get to quota in previous years.

If I was guessing now I’d say 1 FG, 1SF, 1Green (and last seat a dog-fight between Lab,FF)

In a General Election I’d say it’d be a three way dogfight between Ryan, O’Callaghan and Bacik for two seats.

It will interesting to see if Geoghegan goes again at a General Election, especially because he’d surely have to share a ticket with O’Connell - if she decides to run again. And O’Connell would beat him.

O’Connell running again would hurt Bacik at a General Election.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

And FG lost a seat here last time around. It’s very possible they have lost a large chunk of the KOC vote which looks like was a huge female vote. Murphy didn’t exactly romp home last time around. I think FG will be in a dogfight if they run Geoghegan.

In a GE
O’Callaghan will poll way better than Conroy.
Ryan will poll way better than Byrne.

They will largely untroubled the SF vote but you’d imagine they would dilute the Bacik/Geoghegan vote.

I think if FG run a strong candidate then they will get a seat here again but Geoghegan looks to have been emphatically rejected by the DBS electorate. Could you have ever foreseen SF potentially out polling FG in this constituency?

[Biff_Egan]

As pointed out previously on this thread, I’m taking a contrarian position and defecting from Labour to the Greens during whatever the Bacik equivalent of the Spring Tide is. “The Dryrobe Wave”.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

@Tank

All the female candidates benefitted from that (except oddly FF) and that won’t be a factor in the same way at a GE.

Will it not.

FF will likely run JOC.
SF will run Andrews
FG will run Geoghegan
Greens will run Ryan so there’s a huge gap there for a female candidate.

FG could really do with getting a female candidate primed here for the next election

[tazdedub]

The choirboys will need to make a begging call to KOC for the GE.

[tallback]

@Cheasty

@tallback

The only chance that FG don’t get a seat there next time round is if the party nationwide slumps to about half of their current numbers. Even then, in this constituency, I’d say they’d prob get a seat.

It just is what it is. In reality they’d always be hoping for 2 here. Obviously candidate selection is important but it’s not the be-all.

I’d say Jim O’Callaghan is very vulnerable. FF vote in Dub is collapsing, it’s not even that much of an old FF constituency and he’s struggled to get to quota in previous years.

If I was guessing now I’d say 1 FG, 1SF, 1Green (and last seat a dog-fight between Lab,FF)

In a General Election I’d say it’d be a three way dogfight between Ryan, O’Callaghan and Bacik for two seats.

It will interesting to see if Geoghegan goes again at a General Election, especially because he’d surely have to share a ticket with O’Connell - if she decides to run again. And O’Connell would beat him.

O’Connell running again would hurt Bacik at a General Election.

Here’s the thing about O’Connell though - she keeps on making comments against her own interests. Going on RTE after the GE and giving out about Leo really had no benefit from her and really came back to bite her when this election popped up. Even in this by-election - going out of her way to be seen to be supporting non-FG candidates isn’t a great way to endear yourself to the local organisation and is unlikely to be forgotten no matter what happens. I’m really not sure she’ll be a candidate next time around.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

FG in DBS seem to be in disarray.

[Little_Lord_Fauntleroy]

a party for sleiveens

[tallback]

Dublin Bay South by-election 2021 tally - Google Drive

This seems to be the best live-tally.

Geoghegan catching up now that the boxes in the east are largely counted.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

Will probably need a 5% first pref cushion they reckon though.

[Ralphie]

FF in 6th place*

• as every hack will say this “comes with a health warning”

[johnnysachs]

Wow 3.9% for FF. Stick a pin in them.

[Tank]

TBH would FG not have any amount of young D4 debate queens from that constituency, who would love to throw their hat at it. Maybe I’m being naive.

[tallback]

@Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy

Will probably need a 5% first pref cushion they reckon though.

Ah yeah, you’d have to give Bacik the best chance at this stage. She’ll hang in there on First Prefs and will be far more transfer friendly

I just think its funny watching the hot takes, particularly on twitter, that “FG vote has collapsed” etc etc not taking account of the nuances of what boxes have been opened first.

[dodgy_keeper]

Chump showed his Machiavellian side by making O’Callaghan director of elections.

He knew FF had no chance of winning the seat so threw his leadership rival under the bus in the process.

[Cheasty]

@tallback

Here’s the thing about O’Connell though - she keeps on making comments against her own interests. Going on RTE after the GE and giving out about Leo really had no benefit from her and really came back to bite her when this election popped up. Even in this by-election - going out of her way to be seen to be supporting non-FG candidates isn’t a great way to endear yourself to the local organisation and is unlikely to be forgotten no matter what happens. I’m really not sure she’ll be a candidate next time around.

I’m not sure she’ll be a candidate either, but she’s the type of TD FG need. She’s respected across the spectrum and not afraid to dissent. You need these type of TDs if you’re a party that wants to lead a government. They keep you honest and serve a valuable function in terms of giving the perception at least of the party having a conscience. Varadkar wanted a lapdog, and the whole Geoghegan fiasco just made FG look like a misogynist old boys club.

[Special_Olympiakos]

And Jim picked a candidate with a known social media history that could be ridiculed. Jim is twice as cute as MM