“I’m not sure if I’ve ever been a member of Renua or not.”
Come back Brian Lenihan, all is forgiven.
Have SF picked their candidate, a lot depends on that.
In terms of first pref you’d expect Geoghegan to get 25-30% in that constituency, maybe higher with the absence of Ryan and O’Callaghan.
If there’s one clear “left” candidate then a lot of votes could coalesce around them. However if Bacik, Chu and Boylan run - each with relatively high profile - it could split that vote and require huge efficiency in vote transfer to catch up and overtake
but where’s geogho’s transfers going to come from. hell want to be near enough the quota on the first prefs or he could easily lose out
The FF social media machine will have given a massive boost to Deirdre Conroy who may transfer to FG. The Green voters in the constituency would be of the FG on bikes variety too.
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Yeah - it’s a reasonable point.
Looking at the 2020 election (which I suppose is the closest), when Eamon Ryan surplus of first pref votes was distributed,
29% went to FG
24% went to Lab
19% went to SocDems
12% went to FF
5% went to SF
11% went to all the small candidates
That tallies that the Greens in places like Dub Bay South certainly comprise an element of “blueshirts on bikes”
Similarly when Kevin Humphries from Labour was excluded his votes went:
40% to FG (2 candidates)
20% to FF
19% to SF
I think the notion that FG would be completely transfer repellant to be unlikely
Geoghegan will be looking to secure Zaga transfers from the JOC vote too.
If you don’t like my principles well then I have others
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I think a lot of the lettuce grower’s vote is a soft FG personally. If anyone other than the FG candidate wins here I’d be amazed
I don’t think any of the candidates right now will do a good job at bringing out the working class vote in the constituency either. That’s what the likes of Chris Andrews brought out.
If SF go gang busters for it at a central level they prob have the electoral machinery to get out the vote. In a low turnout election it could be a big factor
There were party volunteers wheeling people from the flats into the Pearse St polling centre iirc. A slick operation.
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Combined FG/FF vote at the 2020 election was just 41%. The FG candidate looks fairly toxic. Turnout and more importantly the demographics of that turnout is unpredictable. I wouldn’t have this down as a slam dunk for FG by any means, I’d be leaning towards them losing if anything.
its going to be different in a bye election for a number of factors
there’s a large renting cohort in that constituency and if they can be got out to vote then it will have a large effect on the final result.
LAB and FF have dropped significantly since that election and the transfers wont be as significant as they previously were.
if the left approaches this cleverly, and history indicates that they wont, then they would have a serious chance of taking this seat
I think it’s far from a slam dunk but he’s definitely clear favourite.
22% of votes in the constituency went to Greens (E. Ryan). Not a chance they get that high this time around so a big question will be where do those votes go.
As I said at the start - SF’s choice of candidate will be a key factor
I don’t disagree with that. It’ll play out with FG in the lead after the first round and then it depends on who is closest to him and whether they can sweep up the left vote
When labour voters transferred 2:1 to FG over SF the last time around though it would suggest that work needs to be done to keep the vote left though!
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That’s why I think Bacik is the better bet to actually beat Geoghegan. SF would transfer to her but not the other way around.
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I’d agree with your SF to Lab transfer theory. Which is why the choice of SF candidate is so important. For SF to transfer to her she has to get ahead (prob on first pref) of SF (and also the Greens and Soc Dems)
That would be seriously outrunning the national polls which put Labour about 20-25 points behind SF. With her name recognition factor and considering the middle-class liberal type of constituency it is its possible, but its a big ask.
in dun laoghaire, which would be a similar enough demographic, since bacik ran in 2011, the labour vote has halved whereas the shinner vote has doubled.
and lab is still seen as the FFGLAB triumvirate so if its a protest vote it wont be going for any of those 3. cant see bacik getting within an asses roar
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If it’s Boylan she would appeal to the same woke demographic who might consider Bacik whilst also having the more popular Shinner brand and electoral machine.