I’m amazed at how much “local knowledge” on TFK fails come election time.
Lads here had Frankie Daly and John O’Heney all but elected. Seamus Healy apparently had no chance. The idea of a Sinn Fein seat in Fingal East was laughed at the same as the idea of a Sinn Fein seat in Tipperary last time was laughed at.
If had to make a call I think Hutch will hang on. Recount territory not out of the question though.
I suppose it’s separating your biases from true local knowledge.
A Tipp fella at work was telling me to lump on Healy because his odds had drifted so much but he’d be a Healy voter himself so I didn’t follow through.
RTE just haven’t a clue. This 9 o’clock news bulletin for half an hour when the counts are flying in. I’ve switched over to the Gaelic Language station to follow the counts live.
A party of four on lifting duties there for Michael Fitzmaurice.
Lifting Michael Fitz is no mean feat
I think a lot of it is about trying to measure personal vote against national trends.
It can be a tricky business to say the least.
Every election you get shock wins and shock losses that seemingly come out of nowhere.
What has intrigued over the last couple of elections is the shock losses for some independents. Perhaps there’s only a limited coterie of teflon independents.
Marian Harkin looks like losing this time which I would never have expected. Thomas Pringle and Cathal Berry are likely gone too. Boxer Moran last time. And some expected independent challenges just haven’t materialised. Punch in Clare. I think this Fleming fella will lose in Dublin Rathdown and Barry Heneghan in Dublin Bay North looks like another independent expected to win who will lose.
Big thing with O Heney was his location where he lost 4 or 5 of his biggest parishes and he did desperately outside of Tipperary town. I underestimated Seamus Healy below in Clonmel as I wouldn’t have anything to do with that side of the county but it’s a big town which dominates south Tipp as a whole. If you can’t get a share in Clonmel your goosed.
An underrated trend in this election seems to be FF rebounding in Dublin. They’ll have seats in nearly every constituency and could have two seats in two constituencies.
Wouldn’t rule out Pringle completely; if both SF candidates are elected by the time their third candidate gets eliminated, Pringle should benefit from those transfers.
Good point. Need a count to get bearings on that constituency. Ward seems transfer friendly but I wouldn’t say McConalogue is certain to hang on.
Not looking great for the boy Shay. Harris has a massive surplus. Timmins will surely get at least 2 thousand of that 5 thousand… which would put him well well ahead of Our Shay. Just cant see him making up the difference but we live in hope.
Carrick vote really brought him into contention.
Still think Imelda should secure 3rd seat
What gene pool is O’Heney? FF?
There are 1731 Labour transfers which I think will push Healy ahead of Browne SF. I would think Browne’s transfers would favour Healy a lot.
Not a hope FFG will look towards LAB or the SOCDEMS, if they’re a few short they’ll shore up with independents
O Heney is Fg, he made the headlines during the week when a voicemail from WhatsApp made media of him saying he would pay his mates to join FG so he could get a council nomination.
He should transfer well from Murphy if he survives that long but he’s far too far behind.
Heney is FG stock
I’d imagine Brennan transfers geographically should give Goldsboro a boost too tbh.
Hard to know what way Browne transfers, JOH could do well off them too.
Murphy won’t have a surplus. FG gene pool from Tipp Town transferring to FF from Carrick is a tough sell for me. I think Healy takes the seat over Goldsboro.
You may well be correct but I hope she makes it.
Bar Mattie, she’s the only other option from genuine Agricultural background.
It is Tipperary….
Had a good bit on FF Most seats @ 7/4 
Billy o Shea to get in Kerry ? (50/50 at best)
Fg two seats in KK Carlow (unlikely)
Smiths x 2 in Cavan/Monaghan (unlikely)
Lawless in Mayo (60/40)
Jim ryan in Tipp (5% chance)
Nice day following these bets, up anyway due to FF.