Election Betting

[SlippyStevie]

@Julio_Geordio

@SlippyStevie

Going by 2020 - Wicklow electorate was 101,000 while Cork South Central was 90,000 odd.

Harris got 8,765 first preferences, Martin got over 11,000 (thought he’d have got more, to be honest). You’d imagine Martin’s vote will hold solid, will that snivelling weasel increase his share in Wicklow by a few thousand? Maybe it’s not the sure thing I initially thought.

Wicklow is a strange constituency, full of strange people. You have your mucksavages, you have your wannabe Dubs, you have the wokesters. A real melting pot. SF do well, as do the woke brigade with Whitmer.

Missus is from Wicklow and her auld lad hates Harris. So you can chalk one definite voter off the list. He hates Donnelly too. I reckon Donnelly is goosed.
He also hates Sinn Fein so fuck knows who he is going to vote for.

There’s still probably enough of a solid FF vote in the county to save Donnelly, but I’ve never heard of any person from the place ever speak well of Donnelly. Seems to really rub people up the wrong way, outside of doing fuck all as Health Minister. Flip flopping from the Soc Dems for personal career advancement sums him up.

Would love him to lose his seat.

[Julio_Geordio]

@Batigol

Man after my own heart

Wouldn’t fault him on that myself. He was hating Donnelly before it was cool, hates that he jumped ship to FF.

[peddlerscross]

Yatesy eviscerated Donnelly on his podcast.

He doesnt even buy his canvassers a pint.

[Julio_Geordio]

@peddlerscross

He doesnt even buy his canvassers a pint.

You don’t need to know anymore about a man

[endakenny]

@peddlerscross

Yatesy eviscerated Donnelly on his podcast.

He doesnt even buy his canvassers a pint.

He’s even more of a weirdo than I taught so.

[Cheasty]

@peddlerscross

The whole country seems to be on this.

Once Champ doesnt blow up the RTE Studio on Tuesday night, it should be a good thing.

They’re late.

@Cheasty

Mary Lou and Simon will make Meehaul look very good in the debates.

FF are 7/1 for most seats.

[peddlerscross]

You’d be a serious punter if you went at it.

[gilgamboa]

@Spidey

What’s the voter population in Wicklow v martins constituency?

Martin definitely in the most populated constituency in munster

[Spidey]

I’ll hit Boyler’s tmrw

[Juhniallio]

@Juhniallio

Lads, i think there is plenty of value in Shay Cullen in Wicklow at 11-2
If Donnelly gets in he has no chance but there is a fair hope for a lot of people that wicklow remembers the shafting donnelly gave the electorate by joining ff.
Harris should be safe given he is the energy taoiseach. And whitmore and the sf lad are very short odds.
Next is timmins of fg at 6-4 Given that harris squeaked in last time, i doubt there is a second fg seat.
Matthews the green is next at 10/3. With Whitmore sucking up the lefty liberal vote and no huge green wave then id see matthews struggling.
Which leaves shay on 11/2
Shay was FG, and came second in their race for a candidate but timmins was selected over him so he went indepenent. Hes a former mayor i think so had a bit of a profile but is well placed to take a ‘fuck them’ stance which is always popular. If he polls at all well at the start he could well get a few transfers on the grounds that he was hard done by. Id reckon donnely gets in, but if not, id say cullen has a better chance than timmins or mathews.

I see this fella is in to 7/4 now…

[peddlerscross]

They are both 4 seaters.

Wicklow was a 5 seater last time and some of it has gone into Wexford so bad news for Simon there.

Edit sorry Cork has now become a 5 seater so even better news for Champ backers.

[OG37]

Greystones is beyond woke. Off the charts. Big population and they will vote. He’ll be alright, the embarrassment that he is.

Is that MM v SH a special/fairly visible bet? Can’t look at the moment.

[myboyblue]

@peddlerscross

Once Champ doesnt blow up the RTE Studio on Tuesday night, it should be a good thing.

This wouldn’t fill you with confidence

https://twitter.com/fiannafailparty/status/1860307499854786634?s=46&t=YOfhVM10W0bcyIiYSLI3Wg

[Spidey]

[Julio_Geordio]

@OG37

Greystones is beyond woke. Off the charts.

It has real can’t afford D4 vibes off it. It has a lot of shops, restaurants and cafes that wouldn’t survive in a normal town. Organic shops and the likes, happy pear of course. The craft beer selection is good in the pubs. That kind of scene.

Nice place though.

[OG37]

Thank you.

[OG37]

It is a lovely spot alright. Only in it for the first time recently.

[Julio_Geordio]

@OG37

It is a lovely spot alright. Only in it for the first time recently.

One of those places where you would think, I could live here.

All rat racing to Dublin though.

Lots of nice places in Wicklow to be fair, the much maligned Brayruit has a lot going for it too. A bit rough in spots.

Hollywood, Delganey, Wicklow town itself, Enniskerry, Blessington, Laragh, Augrhim, Baltinglass, Ashford. All have things going for them. The coast and the mountains make places nicer, than they would be elsewhere.

Arklow is a bit of a kip though.

[artfoley]

@Julio_Geordio

Arklow is a bit of a kip though.

its more than a kip, its a fucking hovel

[PasqualePaoli]

Word is Cathal Crowe is in trouble in Clare