The playoffs are the same as last time though, you need to win a semi final and final
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Ya it’s still very tricky.
He feared the Rovers squad when they locked him in the dressing room iirc
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Nations League rankings:
I reckon 14 of the 16 League A teams will qualify automatically, with Wales and Austria missing out to dark horses Turkey and Sweden respectively.
Of the League B teams I reckon Israel, Bosnia, Serbia and Finland will qualify automatically. One of Scotland or Norway will qualify automatically. I suspect Norway might edge the Scotch.
That would leave the League B play-off pathway as:
Scotland
Ukraine
Iceland
Slovenia
The League C play-off pathway would be Georgia, Greece, Kazakhstan and Luxembourg but that’s irrelevant to us.
The League A pathway would then be:
Wales
Austria
Estonia (best team in League D)
Ireland (next highest team in the overall rankings)
We would scrape into the play-offs by one place.
As far as I can make out the bottom line is: If three teams below us in the Nations League rankings qualify automatically, we don’t get a play-off.
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Awful draw
Best hope is get to play France and Holland in first batch of fixtures to avail of “World Cup hangover”
Slovenia’s defeat of Norway in the Nations League could end up being the result that eliminates Ireland from the European Championship.
England have a tough draw for once.
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Sure it isn’t about winning it’s all about how we play.
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Holland’s lack of a really good centre forward might give us a squeak.
We play better against teams we aren’t expected to beat.
But this is a big ask.
So, to reiterate, if three or more teams below Ireland (26th) in the Nations League rankings qualify automatically, we are screwed.
Let’s go through the groups.
Group A - we want Scotland or Norway to get the second qualifying spot behind Spain. Georgia (33rd) are the team we want to do badly.
Group B is our group. Presuming we don’t make the top two, our finishing position in it is irrelevant as regards getting a play-off.
Group C - Italy, England, Ukraine are all ahead of us in the rankings so none of them can help to push us out of a play-off.
Group D - Turkey (35th) are a danger to our play-off prospects here. We want Wales to qualify automatically along with Croatia.
Group E - we want Poland and the Czech Republic to qualify. Albania (27th) look the only plausible danger.
Group F - Big danger of Sweden (30th) getting a qualification spot ahead of Austria or Belgium.
Group G - Montenegro (28th) are a danger team along with possibly Bulgaria (40th). Hungary and Serbia are the two seeded teams we want to qualify.
Group H - Northern Ireland (44th) could plausibly make it into the top 2 here ahead of Finland and Slovenia, it’s not a very strong looking group.
Group I - Romania (29th) will fancy their chances of making the top 2, most likely ahead of Israel.
Group - J - Portugal will win this and either Bosnia or Iceland finishing second suits us, but Slovakia (43rd) are lurking.
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I think that will be a fair group to determine Spock’s ability as a manager at this level. No expectations against the top two seeds, can we get points from those games and perform well or are we going to be completely outclassed.
Greece will be solid but we need to be taking 4 points from those games to show progress - it is far from a given that we will. While Gibraltar doesn’t really matter, just get 6 points on the board and move on.
Get 11 points or more and finish a comfortable third and I wouldn’t have much issue with him getting the 2026 WC campaign. Anything less than that I think we should move on
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We’ll get a heroic 1-1 draw at home to one of the good teams. We’ll have a narrow loss in one of the away games. Possibly the French who have had some clangers against weaker teams.
Maybe a tough draw is better. We are always crap against the weaker teams.
Under Spock we are crap against the good teams too
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What if all of that happens in our favour and we still lose to the bug guns, lose twice to Greece and draw in Gibraltar (nearly happened big Mick).
Surely we are done for either way then?
Where we finish in the group has no bearing on if we get a playoff
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