Nations League rankings:
I reckon 14 of the 16 League A teams will qualify automatically, with Wales and Austria missing out to dark horses Turkey and Sweden respectively.
Of the League B teams I reckon Israel, Bosnia, Serbia and Finland will qualify automatically. One of Scotland or Norway will qualify automatically. I suspect Norway might edge the Scotch.
That would leave the League B play-off pathway as:
Scotland
Ukraine
Iceland
Slovenia
The League C play-off pathway would be Georgia, Greece, Kazakhstan and Luxembourg but that’s irrelevant to us.
The League A pathway would then be:
Wales
Austria
Estonia (best team in League D)
Ireland (next highest team in the overall rankings)
We would scrape into the play-offs by one place.
As far as I can make out the bottom line is: If three teams below us in the Nations League rankings qualify automatically, we don’t get a play-off.