European Games - Home first or second

Some interesting stats (if you’re nerdish) on whether it’s better to have a home game first or second in European competition.

All stats are based on the last 50 years of European competition and are from this German article and a couple of other sources.

First of all overall 55% of the matches played in Europe have resulted with the team playing away first progressing (3,215 out of 5,878). This is a bit distorted though because it doesn’t exclude matches where the seedings are very different and one result is highly more expected than another.


What are your chances of progressing in Europe depending on the result of your first game if it’s at home?

The table below shows the margin of loss or victory for the home team in the first leg of the competition and the second column shows the percentage of teams that have won or lost by that margin and then won overall over the 2 legs.

Diff. % Further Out
<-2 0% 0 357
-2 2% 7 380
-1 7% 44 668
neg 4% 51 1405
±0 24% 301 942
+1 51% 667 632
+2 78% 669 190
+3 92% 469 43
+4 99% 240 3

+4 100% 266 0
pos 73% 2311 868

In other words of the 357 games where the home team lost by more than 2 goals in the first leg none have advanced. Of the 380 games where the home team lost by 2 goals only 7 have advanced etc.

The interesting stuff to take from it (assuming you find this sort of stuff interesting) is that of the teams that drew their home leg first only 24% have advanced. 73% of teams that won their home leg first progressed to the next round. The away teams who won the first leg progressed on 96% of the ties.


This table shows how some top teams in Europe have progressed depending on whether their first leg was at home or away first.

Club Home Through Away Through
Real Madrid 61 67% 77 84%
FC Barcelona 55 78% 76 75%
Juventus Turin 50 78% 77 77%
Bayern Mnchen 59 73% 52 79%
Inter Mailand 62 79% 61 67%
AC Mailand 42 86% 44 77%
RSC Anderlecht 54 76% 62 68%
Ajax Amsterdam 44 59% 52 77%
Liverpool FC 38 79% 61 79%
Benfica Lissabon 52 75% 62 65%

Ajax in winning three titles only played at home first twice - they had ten away games first. They have only won one game beyond the quarter final where the home leg was first.


Teams that have played more games in Europe have a better chance of progressing when the home leg is first:

Teams Further Out

1-10 540 263 783
11-20 118 355 585
21-30 58 286 450
31-40 34 254 340
41-50 26 281 278
51-60 9 115 99
61-70 19 329 283
71-80 8 175 109
81-90 6 164 105
91-100 4 118 64

100 8 323 119

Column 1 shows the number of games that teams have played in European competition. So of the 540 teams that have played less than 10 games where their home leg was first the majority of them have gone out in that round. As the experience of the teams develops they become better teams (more often in Europe = better team anyway) but the importance of whether the first game is at home or away is diminished.


Finally from this site there is a graph showing the improved chances of progressing for those teams who have the home leg second:

Re: Hooligan scumbags

Re: Hooligan scumbags

i dont believe it to be a cancer Raven. it was an isolated incident.

the fact that there is no segregation at GAA games shows that there isn’t a problem here.

Re: Hooligan scumbags

i would hazard a guess that less than 0.5% of all club games played descend into the violence described above

Re: Hooligan scumbags

Yeah, this happened the week before last.

I saw some people on another forum call Rovers supporters scum for the Simon Webb incident and others and they responded by posting this up.


Re: Hooligan scumbags

It’s funny.

The reaction yesterday was ‘well Bohs abused one of our players whose brother died.’

Now it’s being broadened out to say ‘the GAA are hooligans too.’

That’s alright then. We won’t sort ourselves out.

By the end of this judicial review I can’t see many neutrals giving Rovers any support whatsoever.

Thomas Davis abu.

Re: Hooligan scumbags

It was 2 or 3 initially. Then it was 1 lad. I was reading yesterday and plenty of other teams’ support were going on about the same ‘1 or 2’ attacking them. Then you have the lads who love running up and down Gardiner Street throwing bottles around. In a club of 440 odd members there seems to be a great deal of scumbags - far more than 1 or 2 anyway. They don’t deserve a cent of public money.

Re: Hooligan scumbags

You really are in your own little bubble.

Every time Rovers are pulled up for something shameful, which is generally every week, you respond by saying it happened before somewhere else.

I really do find this hilarious.

Re: Hooligan scumbags

‘Thomas Davis - fuck off and die’ banner.

Hooligans chasing and fighting after the Bohs game.

Simon Webb incident.

Attacking supporters down in Waterford.

Any 20 year old clips of GAA violence or anything you want to throw up here?

Re: Hooligan scumbags

A player???

If Rovers hadn’t sold their stadium to line their owners’ pockets they wouldn’t need the government to build a stadium on their behalf.

Louis Kilcoyne sells the stadium and pockets the cash with no plan for the club.

Louis Kilcoyne is elected to the top post in the FAI.

The FAI fund Shamrock Rovers’ legal case against a judicial review into the building of a new stadium on Rovers’ behalf.

If this wasn’t a sporting issue the government would be destroyed.

Imagine a property mogul sold a shopping centre for development and kept the money for himself. After 10 years of hawking their goods around town from prams the shopkeepers got frustrated. They took over the old management company of the shopping centre and asked the government to build them a new shopping centre and the shopkeepers would rent the facility from them. Although not compelled to do so the government at national and local level approved the plans. They felt sorry for these shopkeepers.

Some other shopkeepers who already have shops in the area said “hang on a second, before you finish this guys shouldn’t we be allowed put our shops in there too so there’s facilities for everyone?”

The government couldn’t possibly refuse.

Re: Hooligan scumbags

‘Less of the mock outrage.’ - What was the point of your initial post on this thread? Mock outrage perhaps? Grow some balls yourself and sort out your club. All you Shels fans are the same. Head stuck in the sand.

I presume you won’t be watching the conclusion of the Champions League after the terribly violent scenes in the Valencia-Inter game.

You are making me laugh.

Re: Hooligan scumbags

Well go ahead and sort it out then. I don’t see how doing internet searches to try to find incidents from other sports and teams is going to do it for you though. It’s fairly sad in all honesty.

Re: Hooligan scumbags

Do you want to post that Celtic-Rangers clip once more? I think I missed it there.