Cheltenham is over, the evenings are getting longer and proper club rugby is back! I cannot wait for the 1/4 finals of the HCup this weekend. Plenty has happened since the group stages of the competition but there are still a few standout bets.
Bet 1
Clermont (-9) v Montpellier 3 points 10/11 numerous.
Apart from Ulster, Clermont are the most dangerous side in the competition. They are cruising into the semiās of the top 14, and have a real touch of class about them. There is no doubt that they will still be hurting about how the exited to Leinster last year and this is a great opportunity to show just how good a side they are. Their squad has class throughout, players like Hines, Bonnaire, Parra, Rougerie, Fofanna etc. They are basically the complete package this season and can go close to winning in May. They dominated their group. Montpellier are at this stage thanks to Toulon who fielded a weakened side and basically let Montpellier beat them in the last group game. That was a shite group also and they are very fortuitous to see themselves here. They are having a solid domestic season and no doubt they would rather go well there than being gallant losers here. Home advantage for Clermont is worth at least 6 points so they donāt have to do much more to cover the handicap of 9, they should win by 12+.
Bet 2 & 3
Saracens v Ulster. 5 points Ulster (+5) 10/11 VC & 5 points Ulster in 80 mins at 9/5 Boylesports.
Serious bets here. I had ā¬2000 down at 7/4 with Ladbrokes when the line for this match initially came out and last night I had an additional ā¬1600 at 15/8 with Betvictor, that price has now dried up but 9/5 with Spoilsports is still juicy!
Why oh why oh why arenāt Ulster favourites? Anyone?
Ulster have done nothing wrong this season, and are the best club team in European rugby. Pre-Christmas they handed out beatings for fun, in the last 8 weeks they have supposedly struggled but letās look at the reasoning behind that. They lost half their team to international duty, Pienaar couldnāt have given a shite about Friday night games in freezing Glasgow with the second team boys, Jared Payne went home to NZ to see his dog and they basically took it easy knowing what awaits them this weekend. Complete after-timing here, but I had a big bet on them to beat Leinster at the weekend and they didnāt disappoint. What they proved on Saturday night is that they can turn it on when they want. Mark Anscombe wanted a big performance going into next week and he certainly got it. They beat Leinster out the gate in every sector and nobody would have complained if they won by 10+ that night. They ooze brilliance and thereās no point in me going on here because Iām like a broken record. I do have respect for Saracens, they are a decent side, but no more than that. They struggled to win a truly awful group and scraped past Munster, a side that Ulster would tear to shreds. I canāt believe that Sarries have taken this game to Twickenham, the bigger pitch will suit Ulster and the number of Ulster fans will almost surely be more than the āhomeā contingent.
Ulster will win this game gentlemen.
Bet 4
Harlequins (-6) v Munster. 5 points 10/11 Bwin.
If you donāt have an account with Bwin open one for this hācap line itās 7 everywhere else. Quins (although overrated) are the best English club side, Munster are Irelandās weakest province. They were blessed that their group was utter crap but what has transpired since December makes Quins an even better bet. Munster have lost crucial players in Zebo and Earls and whatever chance of them being involved is irrelevant as they are not match fit. OāConnell has returned and is a big leader but he is a player in decline unfortunately. OāGara is gone to shite, Conor Murray wouldnāt make the Blackrock Junior Cup team and Peter OāMahony is average at best. Conor O Shea should get good credit for what he has done with Quins, they are a much more professional outfit than they were even 12 months ago and theyāre a more physical side who also are technically pretty good. Munster shipped 51 points to Glasgow at the weekend and they could be in for a long afternoon against Quins. If this was in Thomand Iād have Harlequins 8 point favourites, at the stoop they should be 14 point favourites. It could be an absolute rout and signal the end of an era for Munster rugby but Iām content to just take Quins by 7+.
Thatās three 5 point bets advised.
