If there is a Eurovision this year, Iceland already have it won.
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Almost zero chance they win it despite the betting odds have them as low as 6/1 now but can get 8/1. At this point with most songs known I would take Italy at 14/1 and Australia at 50/1 as two good each way bets against the field. The Australian girl will have to get a makeover but I’m sure they can manage that by May.
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Leslie Roy - Story of My Life is Ireland’s entry
Bit of a Katie Perry vibe to it.
Like another Roy who represented Ireland on the international stage, she’ll likely be sent home with her tea in a mug a few days before the finals.
Time for an update. This Sunday is the deadline for all songs to be released and as of now we know 33 of the 41 songs who will be lining up to the ticker tape in May. Amongst those eight countries still to choose their song are Sweden, Finland and Denmark who are all running national finals this weekend and so have showed their hand in the build up. The other countries are going for internal selections so we don’t know what they have up their sleeves yet. Although Bulgaria is curiously extremely high in betting lists at 11/2 to 8/1 despite not showing their hand yet, and they have no pedigree of doing well in the competition or of winning it.
Besides Bulgaria whose price I have just mentioned, the other three countries at the top of the list trading at single digits are Iceland (4/1 - 7/1), Lithuania (4/1 - 11/2) and Russia (5/1 to 9/1). We know the Iceland and Lithuania songs which I will post below. Both are whacky sort of numbers which will appeal to a certain base only (televoters) and not likely to command too hectic a jury score (which go for more polished and serious performances). The televote and jury vote is split 50/50 so there is no point dominating in one area but not the other. Russia have revealed their act to be ‘Little Big’ who are a kind of parody act who are massive in Eastern Europe. I will post a video below of their biggest hit which has 365 million YouTube views. Note that this isn’t their song however, just an example of their style. Their song is yet to be released.
Iceland:
Lithuania:
Russia:
The thing with the three at the head of the market here is I think they will cannibalise each other’s televote, as they are essentially all in the same kind of demographic, and none of them will particularly appeal to juries. I think that leaves the door open to a more serious and proper song to win, which will have to play well on the radio.
I posted the other day two outsiders I like against the field - Italy at 14/1 and Australia at 50/1. I’ll put their videos below:
Italy:
Australia:
I’m adding another fancy which I think is a great price is Romania at 14/1. They would be my main fancy of the three, even ahead of Italy and Australia.
Romania:
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Wacky
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Ireland are not going to win this
They won’t get in the top 100
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This lad thinks he’s Ronnie Wood. 5 month old daughter.
She’s a lazer beam?
I’d say Ireland will do well to qualify from what is a semi final of death.
No winner there lad, in any you have listed above.
What wins it so pal?
Only joking, shur you have all the bases covered there. I do think Austria at 280/1 on Betfair is overpriced.
Great post:
Iceland - forget about it, no chance.
Lithuania - I actually really like it. Catchy, not annoying, funny dance, charming. They need to play up the comedy aspect, which is actually quite subtle so far. Could win or at least get top 3. Judges won’t hate it as much as they hate the Russian entry either.
Russia - too cynical for me. It will be very catchy for anyone below 13 or so but just annoying for anyone over that. Too self-aware. Judges hopefully won’t like it except for pro-Russian ones. Being from Russia is obviously a massive advantage.
Italy - nice song, decent outsider chance. Judges will love it. Probably the best song that you’ve posted. It might even win with the judges.
Australia - completely anonymous, no chance. Another disadvantage is the televoters hate the Aussies
Romania - I’m just not getting it but songs that I just didn’t get have won before.
From the above I’d have Lithuania no. 1, barely ahead of Russia. Iceland will flop. Italy have a good chance of top 3 to 5 so check the each-way odds.
Here’s Bulgaria:
Indie-pop ballad. All the comments on youtube are people loving it and getting angry that anyone would dare compare her to Billie Eilish because she’s her own original. That’s a very positive indicator. Judges will like it and it appeals strongly to a key televoter demographic. No-one hates Bulgaria. I think you’d have to make it the favourite but not an unassailable one. It reminds me very slightly of the Portugal song that won it.
By the way, on the subject of youtube, I remember seeing that youtube views has turned into a key indicator of success in recent years so that’s another thing you could look at.
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Yeah the Bulgaria song only released this morning. It took a walk in the betting odds out to 14.0 on betfair from about 8.6 after it dropped though, so the early sharp money does not like it. I have to say it is a bit too slow and I think will get lost. To me it’ll compete with Romania directly and I would still gladly favour Romania over them. The negative with Romania is a lot of people aren’t getting it on first listen but it’s a grower, but a lot of voters on the night might be casual viewers tuning in for the first time.
Of the three whacky entrants at the top of the markets I would agree with you wholeheartedly that Lithuania is the best of them and should hoover up most votes in that demographic. On this basis that three can’t compete strongly in the same genre I would confidently pass over Iceland and less confidently pass over Russia (who we have not seen their song yet and they have big score getting ability from allies).
I am beginning to think I am wrong about Australia but at 100.00 on betfair it is a cheap risk to reward bet to find out. She needs to tear up the staging she used in the national final and improve her scruffy appearance but if she can do both, and she has said she will be revamping the staging, then it is a very radio friendly number and Australia have been a jury vote darling since they entered the competition. My thinking is by backing her at these odds they might quarter down the line if we see these changes and then it leaves trade out possibilities and a bet for free.
Swedish final is tonight but there doesn’t appear to be a winner in there.
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At the end of the Russian video they have dogs and frogs pop up and make the stupid noises. That’s my guess for the live performance. All out comedy aimed at 9 years olds with on-stage graphics. It will be insufferable shite.
All those songs are a complete shit show . Fucking greek tragedy that the Eurovision was allowed to be hijacked by some lgbtbgsm cult . There should be no backing tracks no techno shit one person sings and your allowed 4 on the stage max they should stand there still and either be backing vocals or play a proper instrument.
Ireland first good song in years. Typical
There will be no Eurovision. Unless they all perform from their home studios.