Day 1
1.30 Supreme Novice
This looks a substandard renewal with the absence of Moon Racer and Moveswiththetimes. The former was my idea of the winner. Ballyandy has the best form in the race having won the Betfair Hurdle off a mark of 135. Phil Smith was very lenient in his appraisal of Ballyandy prior to this race and he duly bolted up. The Twiston Davies yard are in awful form which tempers my enthusiasm for Ballyandy’s chance.
Melon is the hype horse. One could not but be impressed by its debut win at Leopardstown in January on good ground. While the win amounts to little from a ratings perspective it was a very taking display and one that left a lasting impression. Willie Mullins does not talk up his horses but he has talked about Melon in a manner reminiscent of Vautour prior to the latter taking this same race in 2014. I think we should take the hint and at 3-1, he looks the nap of day one.
2.10 Arkle
This race is all about Altior, who has everything one could hope for is a racehorse. There is no point in looking to taking him on. If someone wanted a bet in the race, I think Cloudy Dream without the favourite is a good bet. This smooth travelling horse of Malcom Jefferson would have a right chance in an ordinary renewal of this race and will love the decent ground he gets here.
2.50 Ultima Chase
A real headscratcher but I have come down on the side of the Peter Bowen trained Henri Parry Morgan. He was a decent novice last year, running second to Native River at Aintree in a Grade 1 last year off a mark of 148. He runs here off 142 which looks generous in light of what Native River has accomplished this year. He has got bogged down in winter ground this year and will be much more at home on a better surface. The very accomplished Sean Bowen takes the ride. All in all, 12-1 looks a fair each way shout and would not be surprised to see him go over shorter.
3.30 Champion Hurdle
The highlight of Day 1 has lost some of its lustre with the absence of Faugheen and Annie Power. On the positive side, it makes much more appeal as a betting prospect. Since early in the year, I have been champion the chance of Alan King’s Sceau Royal. The stats are a negative for a 5 year old winning the Champion Hurdle but I think this lad has crept in under the radar in a very open renewal. Sceau Royal needs quick ground and a galloping track to be seen at his best. His prep run behind Yanworth at Wincanton was very good (even if his Trainer disagreed). He travels phenomenally well and is super slick over his obstacles. He was a strong fancy for last year’s Triumph, but the King yard was badly out of sorts then. At 33-1, he is a cracking ew bet.
I have to back Moon Racer ew aswell. He was a strong fancy of mine for the Supreme but connections understandably took the brave option to run him here in light of his age and fragile nature. He was head and shoulders better than those at the top of the market as a bumper horse. He has been to Cheltenham three times, with three victories to his name. Ground will not be a problem and if he is within a few lengths of the leader approaching the last, he will go very close as nothing will be finishing better up the Prestbury Park hill. At 10-1 ew, he is worth another bet in this race.
4.10 Mares Hurdle
This looks a banker race the Irish. It is very unusual for Rich Ricci to run two strong fancies against each other in the same race. What that says is open to conjecture. Limini would seem to be the more fancied as Ruby Walsh is booked to ride. Apples Jade has an obvious chance and would expect her to improve enormously for her last run against LImini which came after a break.
The one that catches my eye and looks overpriced in comparison to those at the top of the market is Jers Girl. She won two Grade 1s as a Juvenile over this trip and was closely matched with Apples Jade. At 12-1 she looks to have a decent ew claim and is the selection.
4.50 National Hunt Chase
This is a race where the classy types have come to the fore in recent renewals. I really like Edwulf in this and would have backed him for the RSA had in run in that. This seems to have been the plan all year with Derek O’Connor getting the leg up in his penultimate start. The one major concern with Edwulf is that he has jumping frailties. He does jump well in the main and has good scope but can throw in the odd howler. Provided he puts in a clear round, at 6-1 he gets the nb.
5.30 Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase
Hammersley Lake is the section at 16-1 ew. Michael Buckley does not hold on to horses that have no upside. The fact that Hammersley Lake is still in training with Nicky Henderson is a tip in itself. The selection has run well in decent company this year without getting his head in front. He was 6th in the 2015 Coral Cup off a mark of 146 but runs here off 144. Will love the ground and has the excellent David Mullins doing the steering. There will be worse 16-1 ew shots running this week.
Day 2
1.30 Neptune Hurdle
Neon Wolf is all the rage in this market. He won the same race that Peddlers Cross won prior to winning the Neptune in 2010. He looks the real deal but is priced up on hype more than form. Trainer has expressed concerns about quick ground. This is a race where there is a lot of collateral form.
My idea of the winner is the Alan King Messire Des Obeaux. He showed real class in beating a decent field in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury. He was beaten in his final start at Huntingdon where he failed by a neck to give seven pounds to Kepper Hill. This track would not have played to the selection’s strengths. I think he is a great ew bet at 10-1.
2.10 RSA Chase
Looks a poor renewal. The two best staying novice chasers are Our Duke and Coney Island. If either ran here, they would go off a pretty short favourite. The horse I like is Acapella Bourgeois. He won a couple of Grade 2s as a novice hurdler and had form that tied in with Our Duke. Looks to have stamina in abundance and the right attributes for a test like this. Would love him to win for the Hughes family and at 10-1 gets the nb on Day 2.
2.50 Coral Cup
I love this race and it has been a very lucky race for me down through the years. I really fancy the Nicky Henderson trained Consul de Thaix. He brings top notch handicap form into the race having finished behind Brain Power on his last two starts. Both races were run over 2 miles and the selection was doing all his best work at the end, suggestion that an extra 5 furlongs would be right up his street. At 16-1 he represents one of the best ew selections of the week.
3.30 Champion Chase
Highlight of Day 2 should see Douvan confirm his status as the best horse in training. No need to look at other angles in this race. Just sit back and enjoy.
4.10 Cross Country
No selection as no interest.
4.50 Fred Winter
Another race where the classy horse have come to the fore. The one I like is Divin Bere. Gave weight and a beating to Master Blueeyes on his last start. The latter has since won the Adonis and is a leading fancy for the Triumph. The selection’s mark of 138 looks lenient in light of Master Blueeyes subsequent mark of 150. Divin Bere has also undergone a wind operation since his last run. All in all at 6-1 he looks an solid wn bet to nothing as I would be disappointed if he could not at least finish in the places.
5.30 The Bumper
A race that the Irish have traditionally dominated winning 8 out of the previous 10 renewals. The Irish bumper horses pretty ordinary this year. The one I like is the Dan Skelton trained Cause Toujours. Won his only bumper at Warwick in December is very taken style. Initially his trainer had ruled out the Champion Bumper but has had a change of heart. It is very difficult to be too dogmatic in a race of this nature, but I would be hopeful that the selection is capable of a decent shown at worse and at 10-1 looks a fair ew bet.
Day 3
1.30 JLT Novice Chase
I was very much against Yorkhill initially but as I framed this race, it became obviously that the race will be run to suit the Willie Mullin’s inmate. The selection has his quirks, pulls hard, and has been less that convincing at his fences. I think he needs a very strong run race to be seen at his brilliant best. He produced one of the performances of the festival under such conditions in the Neptune last year. The presence of Disko and Politologue will ensure they go a decent clip here. This will allow Ruby Walsh to settle his mount in behind which should see him tackle his fences with better alacrity than hitherto. At 6-4 he is the nap for Day 3.
2.10 Pertemps
Presenting Percy will be all the rage here for the same connections as last year’s winner Mal Dini. The Handicapper has done him no favours for his victory at Fairyhouse. He may not have too much in hand and this may be his undoing in a handicap of this competitiveness. The one I like is the admirable Tobefair from the Dedra Hamer yard. He has won seven on the bounce, initially off a mark of 81. He runs here of 143 and there may well be more to come. He does not win by much which makes it difficult for the handicapper to get a handle on him. I suspect that heargear will be reapplied here in an effort to find a little more improvement. There would be no better story at the festival than a win for a small yard like this. At 15-2 ew, he gets the nb to do it.
2.40 Ryanair Chase
We have a strong hand here with leading chances in the shape of Un De Sceaux, Sub Lieutenant and Empire of Dirt. I think the latter will take the world of beating in this. Has been turned inside out since joining the Gordon Elliot yard from Colm Murphy. Won the Brown Plate in a procession last year and has looked a bona fide Grade 1 performer in subsequent runs when upped in class. Michael O’Leary has yet to win this race that he sponsors. At 4-1, the selection in the Day 3 nb.
3.30 Stayers
The highlight of Day 3 is the Stayers Hurdle. Unowhatimeanharry looks a very worthy favourite and will be a tough nut to crack. However, I’m prepared to do so with Ballyoptic from the Twiston Davies yard. A winner of a Grade 1 at Aintree as a novice, he returned to action by winning the Persian War at Cheptow in a course record back in October. He has fallen twice since and has come up short in battles with the favourite. He has had a wind operation since his last run and I feel the drying ground will be more in his favour than the favourite. I think he will attempt to make all and given a clear sight at his obstacles may prove difficult to pin back. I would like to see his yard in better form and will watch their runners with interest earlier on in the week. At 16-1, he looks a value ew bet against the jolly.
4.10 Brown Advisory Plate
Diamond King will be a warm order here, attempting to follow up his win in the Coral Cup last year. He is after a wind operation but his jumping just does not convince me. He may well win as he looks well handicapped but the value lies else where. Step forward Caid Du Berlais. He races here off 143 and gets the good ground that he badly needs to see him at his best. He finished second in the 2013 Fred Winter, third in the 2014 Martin Pipe off 143, and won the Paddy Power Chase in 2014 off 143. He relishes these big field handicaps, has proven festival form, loves decent ground and is back on a winning mark. At 20-1 he represents one of the better ew plays of the festival.
4.50 Mares Novice Hurdle
The Willie Mullins brigade will be understandably all the rage here. He won the initial running of this race with Limini. He looks to have a strong hand again in the shape of second season novice Let’s Dance and Airlie Beach. The Irish mares have looked superior to many of the Geldings on this side of the Irish sea this winter.
However, I am going to take them on with the Warren Greatrex La Bague Au Roi. This high class mare has only tasted defeat in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree last year when the soft ground went against her. She looks a polished article this year and can see her attempting to make all. She is a natural over sticks and this style of racing allows her to use this weapon to great effect. At 7-1 she is a great ew bet.
5.30 Kim Muir
JP Mcmanus love a good plot in this race. He may just have one in the shape of the Jonjo O’Neill trained Another Hero. This fella was laid out for the Irish Grand National last year off a mark of 136, but fell in the race. He has run well since without hitting the frame to protect his mark. He runs here off the same mark and will be ably assisted by Jonjo O’Neill Junior. The latter certainly did not lick it off the stones and looks to have a promising career in the saddle ahead of him. A good racing pal of mine has this as his nap for the week and the case is patently obvious. He looks a great bet at 16-1 ew and would expect him to go off much shorter.
Day 4
1.30 Triumph Hurdle
They say you should forgive a horse one run. Hence my selection of Charli Parcs. I respect the favourite Defi Du Seuil and he is five pounds clear of the field on official ratings. You could not have been but impressed by the manner of Charli Parcs debut victory at Kempton where he had Master Blueeyes well beaten in second. Everything that could go wrong did in the Adonis. The fact that he was still pitching at the second last was a testament to his latent class. To my eye he was coming back on the birdle but that is just conjecture. Nicky Henderson is wholesome in his praise of this McManus juvenile and I think it is significant that they are keen to lock horns again with Master Blueeyes. The more the ground dries out, the better for this good action horse. At 6-1, he looks an ew play.
2.10 County Hurdle
Last year’s Supreme was a red hot renewal. Dan Skelton won this race last year with Superb Story who won the Greatwood prior to the festival. The stables North Hill Harvey is following a similar path. Granted the selection is probably not as well handicapped as Superb Story, but there is no denying the quality of last year’s Supreme. The selection made a bad mistake at a crucial stage, only for which he may well have finished in the places. To me, that’s as good as form as there is in the context of this race. I felt after he won the Greatwood in November that this was an obvious target and nothing I have seen since will dissuade me from backing him. At 8-1, I think he is good value ew.
2.50 Albert Bartlett
Originally I was looking to take on Death Duty. However, the more I looked at the race the bigger a certainty Death Duty looked and at 9-4 is the nap on day 4. Gordon Elliot makes no secret of the esteem that he holds this horse in. If Death Duty ran in the Neptune, I would have fancied him there aswell. He brings proven Grade 1 form to the table and looks to have all the qualities to make it to the top. He is unproven on decent ground which is a concern, but he is such a good moving horse that I cannot see it being an issue.
3.30 Gold Cup
The highlight of Day 4 is the Gold Cup. Probably not the strongest renewal but an intriguing puzzle nonetheless. Think Native River is the bet. He travels, jumps and stays. He is Denman lite in many aspects. I cannot see him out of the first three. It will take a hell of a performance to pass him and just cannot see who is capable of doing so in this field. Djakadam will have his supporters but think he lacks the heart for a battle, and he wont be winning the Gold Cup on the birdle. At 7-2, he is a sold nb win selection.
4.10 Foxhunters
Very simple, On the fringe looks banker materials. Looked better than ever at Leopardstown and nothing of the standard of Foxrock in this field. At 6-4, he is a strong win bet.
4.50 Martin Pipe Conditional
A minefield, but my dart came down on Castello Sforza. Was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year. Hopeful that strong pace and decent ground will show him in better light than slowly run Irish maidens. Stable have a fine record in the race and at 20-1 is a tentative ew selection.
5.30 Grand Annual
The Grand Annual brings down the curtain on another festival. In the 2016 renewal there was a massive gamble on Jessica Harringtons Rock The World. He ultimately finished third off a mark of 147. He runs here off the same mark. He has had a wind operation since his last run. That, together with rattling fast ground should see him hit the frame again. As mentioned earlier, Michael Buckley does not hold onto horses with no upsides. This indicates that he is still reasonably treated and at 10-1 rates a solid ew bet.
