[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 851913, member: 276”]By weight manager, I guess you mean handicapper? It would not be that unusual for a handicapper to give tips, as he is just giving his interpretation of how a race will unfold.
Unlike many tipsters, he looks at it primarily from a maths perspective.[/quote]
Interesting, I’ve been following him casually every week and he’s calling 4-5/6 every week.
I might trial him for a couple of weeks. It seems almost silly not to such is his success rate.
[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 851913, member: 276”]By weight manager, I guess you mean handicapper? It would not be that unusual for a handicapper to give tips, as he is just giving his interpretation of how a race will unfold.
Unlike many tipsters, he looks at it primarily from a maths perspective.[/quote]
Huge conflict if he’s getting paid for the tips though
P&L -19pts (4pts IP)
Bet 8 - Champion Chase AP
2pts win Sire De Grugy 25-1
Totesport
P&L: -21pts (6pts IP)
This isn’t going very well Fenway
It’s a marathon, not a sprint Fran. Keep the faith.
In fenwaypark we trust 
Bet 9
3.15 Aintree
4pts win Ruacana 15-2
VC
if this thread keeps going as it is it should be merged with the suicide one
You’re nearly as predictable as a hooker getting an STD.
liven up a bit FFS will ya, there’s fellas getting cleaned out here
Mickee,
This thread is about identifying value. The horses selected are by and large overpriced, and the odds quoted are not a true reflection of the horse’s ability and chance, in my opinion. I would be pretty sure that each of the horses selected so far have returned an SP much shorter than the odds I selected them at.
When selecting horses in a manner like this, you are not going to get a reliable and consistent return of winners. The hope is that over the course of the season there will be enough winners at a decent price to offset the inevitable long list of losing bets.
I have decided to only go win only, but if one wanted to minimize their loses they could back the horses each way.
As mentioned on the Sport of Kings thread, I am going to experiment with win only selections to see if the extra point on the win offsets the gains to be had from the place part of the bet over the course of the season.
I am not punting. I am using this thread as an experiment to ascertain how successful or not this type of betting strategy is over the course of a season. I accept that using one season is a very unreliable sample size to use.
There are many angles and strategies that one can use when betting.
[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 852296, member: 276”]Mickee,
This thread is about identifying value. The horses selected are by and large overpriced, and the odds quoted are not a true reflection of the horse’s ability and chance, in my opinion. I would be pretty sure that each of the horses selected so far have returned an SP much shorter than the odds I selected them at.
When selecting horses in a manner like this, you are not going to get a reliable and consistent return of winners. The hope is that over the course of the season there will be enough winners at a decent price to offset the inevitable long list of losing bets.
I have decided to only go win only, but if one wanted to minimize their loses they could back the horses each way.
As mentioned on the Sport of Kings thread, I am going to experiment with win only selections to see if the extra point on the win offsets the gains to be had from the place part of the bet over the course of the season.
I am not punting. I am using this thread as an experiment to ascertain how successful or not this type of betting strategy is over the course of a season. I accept that using one season is a very unreliable sample size to use.
There are many angles and strategies that one can use when betting.[/quote]
ah here, you could of at least PM’ed me and @Fagan ODowd[/USER] with this information, i usually take everything that’s on the internet at face value like most other posters (@[USER=273]caoimhaoin for example) and assumed these were actual well researched punting opportunities and not experiments.
if it was your own money you were punting you’d think a bit more about it i suppose
[quote=“mickee321, post: 852303, member: 367”]ah here, you could of at least PM’ed me and @Fagan ODowd[/USER] with this information, i usually take everything that’s on the internet at face value like most other posters (@[USER=273]caoimhaoin for example) and assumed these were actual well researched punting opportunities and not experiments.
if it was your own money you were punting you’d think a bit more about it i suppose[/quote]
While I dont spend hours going through a race like I once did, I would still hope that I would have done enough to justify selections like these.
Don’t mind that attention seeking fool Fenway.
no prob, cheers for the heads up
[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 852084, member: 276”]Bet 9
3.15 Aintree
4pts win Ruacana 15-2
VC[/quote]
P&L -25pts (6pts IP)
Bet 10
Charlie Hall Chase AP
5pts win Harry Topper 12-1
VC
Bet 11
JNWine Chase AP
5pts win Mount Benbulben 7-1
Bet365
P&L -35 pts (16pts IP)
Bet 12
Hennessy AP
3pts win Our Father 16-1
Bet365
P&L -38 pts (19pts IP)
Bet 13
Paddy Power AP
2pts win Third Intention 20-1
Bet365
P&L -40 pts (21pts IP)