hey wyts,
I can easily understand the skepticism. I will try to explain the logic as best i can.
I have always approached betting from a value perspective fundamentally. Price is king and if a fancied a horse but the price did not reflect its chance then I would not back it. For example, I think sire de grugy will win the champion chase but would not back him at current price of 9-4 as the price does not reflect his chance, in my opinion.
I think that successful betting is about discipline, value and betting to a level stakes. When I started this thread, I was using a points scale. I never did this when I actually punted myself. If I was having a bet, I would bet to level stakes irrespective of the price. Most of the earlier bets I put up (losers I grant you) where 5 point bets as I did not like the scaling system. I accept that most lads will say that I was chasing losses.
As I pointed out when I stopped posting selections, my new approach was to narrow my scope of focus and all bets were to be of a 1 point variation. The latter is what I would have done for Festival selections if I had started a new thread rather than continue with this one. To open a new thread would have shown me at my narcissistic worse so for consistency sake all bets are 5 pts (but 1 pt essentially as they are simply a selection).
‘Hard work beats talent, when talent fails to work hard’. This is a quote from Kevin Durant’s highschool basketball coach. I have always had an ability to pick big price winners, but I would also do the necessary homework.
It is no secret that I have a son with a very rare terminal condition called ‘i cell’ disease. He will be two in April but measures the size of a 4 month old and will not get any bigger. The condition affects every organ and bone in his tiny body and as each day passes the disease makes him sicker. He would be very limited physically, to the extent that he cant even roll on his side. His has started to develop contractures in his hands which means he cannot straighten some of his fingers. Mentally he very delayed and his immune system is crazily weak. He develop a respiratory infection (common with condition) in the past few week and is already on his third set of antibiotics in an effort to shake it. You get the picture.
Our lives were changed forever when he was born and will never be the same again. My Partner gave up her career to be a full time carer. Her life is unbelievably tough. She attends his numerous medical appointments on her own and her life for large parts of the day can be very isolated. We were fortunate to find ourselves in the financial position to move closer to my place of work. I can now drop home when my timetable permits to give her some respite when I can.
I am now a much better human being as a result of being a Dad. I am also a much better companion to my partner as I dont spend hours upon hours of my life studying the form and watching re-runs of races.
As you can imagine, running a household on one income is very tight. Needless to say, I cant afford to bet anymore. To do so would be selfish and I’m scared that I could use gambling as a form of escapism from our situation. To gamble successfully, you need to be in a good place mentally. There is also a huge opportunity cost on my time that I would rather spend with my child and Partner.
I set up this thread originally as a way of keeping me interested in the jumps season. I put up selections without doing the homework. Essentially, it involved me glacing at racecards and making perceived value selections. This approach showed that without the ‘hardwork’ you are not going to put up winning selections at a consistent level without doing the required homework.
I am not punting, and this will be the first Cheltenham since I was a teenager that I wont be having a bet. I am happy to put up these selections. I put them up at their current prices. If the were a shorter price, I would not have selected them. Some will run, some wont. Those that do run will be much shorter on the day (in many cases) and I expect them all to outrun their odds. I have done a bit more study into these selections and am happy that I’m not misleading lads. I always believe that lads should do their own homework and make their own selections. Should lads just be looking to have a flutter on a particular race at the Festival, I would not put them off backing any of my selections.
This thread only needs about two selections to win to break even but will post a good profit with 4 or more winning selections.
I have gone into a lot of detail but some of my friends on the Festival Thread think that I am punting for real. I am not. It’s just a thread for self indulgence purposes.
[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 913112, member: 276”]hey wyts,
I can easily understand the skepticism. I will try to explain the logic as best i can.
I have always approached betting from a value perspective fundamentally. Price is king and if a fancied a horse but the price did not reflect its chance then I would not back it. For example, I think sire de grugy will win the champion chase but would not back him at current price of 9-4 as the price does not reflect his chance, in my opinion.
I think that successful betting is about discipline, value and betting to a level stakes. When I started this thread, I was using a points scale. I never did this when I actually punted myself. If I was having a bet, I would bet to level stakes irrespective of the price. Most of the earlier bets I put up (losers I grant you) where 5 point bets as I did not like the scaling system. I accept that most lads will say that I was chasing losses.
As I pointed out when I stopped posting selections, my new approach was to narrow my scope of focus and all bets were to be of a 1 point variation. The latter is what I would have done for Festival selections if I had started a new thread rather than continue with this one. To open a new thread would have shown me at my narcissistic worse so for consistency sake all bets are 5 pts (but 1 pt essentially as they are simply a selection).
‘Hard work beats talent, when talent fails to work hard’. This is a quote from Kevin Durant’s highschool basketball coach. I have always had an ability to pick big price winners, but I would also do the necessary homework.
It is no secret that I have a son with a very rare terminal condition called ‘i cell’ disease. He will be two in April but measures the size of a 4 month old and will not get any bigger. The condition affects every organ and bone in his tiny body and as each day passes the disease makes him sicker. He would be very limited physically, to the extent that he cant even roll on his side. His has started to develop contractures in his hands which means he cannot straighten some of his fingers. Mentally he very delayed and his immune system is crazily weak. He develop a respiratory infection (common with condition) in the past few week and is already on his third set of antibiotics in an effort to shake it. You get the picture.
Our lives were changed forever when he was born and will never be the same again. My Partner gave up her career to be a full time carer. Her life is unbelievably tough. She attends his numerous medical appointments on her own and her life for large parts of the day can be very isolated. We were fortunate to find ourselves in the financial position to move closer to my place of work. I can now drop home when my timetable permits to give her some respite when I can.
I am now a much better human being as a result of being a Dad. I am also a much better companion to my partner as I dont spend hours upon hours of my life studying the form and watching re-runs of races.
As you can imagine, running a household on one income is very tight. Needless to say, I cant afford to bet anymore. To do so would be selfish and I’m scared that I could use gambling as a form of escapism from our situation. To gamble successfully, you need to be in a good place mentally. There is also a huge opportunity cost on my time that I would rather spend with my child and Partner.
I set up this thread originally as a way of keeping me interested in the jumps season. I put up selections without doing the homework. Essentially, it involved me glacing at racecards and making perceived value selections. This approach showed that without the ‘hardwork’ you are not going to put up winning selections at a consistent level without doing the required homework.
I am not punting, and this will be the first Cheltenham since I was a teenager that I wont be having a bet. I am happy to put up these selections. I put them up at their current prices. If the were a shorter price, I would not have selected them. Some will run, some wont. Those that do run will be much shorter on the day (in many cases) and I expect them all to outrun their odds. I have done a bit more study into these selections and am happy that I’m not misleading lads. I always believe that lads should do their own homework and make their own selections. Should lads just be looking to have a flutter on a particular race at the Festival, I would not put them off backing any of my selections.
This thread only needs about two selections to win to break even but will post a good profit with 4 or more winning selections.
I have gone into a lot of detail but some of my friends on the Festival Thread think that I am punting for real. I am not. It’s just a thread for self indulgence purposes.[/quote]
All I can say is that was one of the most insightful and profound posts ive ever read here or anywhere else,you are a credit to this forum Fenners and I wish you and your family all the best in the situation your in.
Bet 89
Novices Handicap Chase AP
5pts win Close House 25-1 NRNB
Stan James
P&L -175pts (117pts IP)
I notice that Jason Maguire is booked to ride Muldoon’s Picnic. Up and Go looks a NR. I will select Close House in his place. He is also 25s and looks a definite runner.
Should Up and Go run, I am happy to select both against the field.
Bet 90
Festival Handicap Chase AP
5pts win Restless Harry 20-1 NRNB
Totesport
P&L -180pts (122pts IP)
Fenners is a legend, I didn’t need to read that post to know it!
Thanks BT,
The Bumper, as always is a bit of a lottery. There is little or no collateral form and horses at that age are improving at a rate of knots.
That been said, no bumper horse has visually impressed me more than Modus. He is only a 4 year old but showed great stamina to win a junior bumper at Cheltenham on very heavy going on his last start. He beat a very well regarded horse of Nicky Henderson by 13 lengths. The latter was sent off a shortest price on his next start, which was a listed race over hurdles. That gives you an idea of how well regarded he was. Unfortunately he was fatally injured in that race.
Modus showed he handles better ground when winning readily on good to soft on his debut at Exeter. If he was with a bigger yard, he would be favourite or close to it.
I think he is a machine and may be the classiest horse in the race. The problem is that it’s not always the classiest horse that wins a test like the Champion Bumper. I would be pretty disappointed if he failed to make the frame at worst.
[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 912739, member: 276”]Going to start posting up bets here again.
As it stands, P&L is -70pts with 7pts IP. These are
- Jezki Champion Hurdle 2pts win at 12-1
- Sire De Grugy Champion Chase 2pts win at 25-1
- The Liquidator to win any race at Festival 3pts at 16-1.
IP)[/quote]
Seeing as FP is too modest to do so
Can I get a hell yeah…
There 26 pts and 52 pts right there.
[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 912751, member: 276”]Bet 76
Pertemps AP
5pts win Fingal Bay 8-1 NRNB
Ladbrokes
P&L -110pts (52pts IP)[/quote]
Another 45 pts in the bag here
[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 912867, member: 276”]Bet 79
World Hurdle AP
5pts win More Of That 10-1 NRNB
VC
P&L -125pts (67pts IP)[/quote]
Another 55 pts
I make that 178 pts back so -2 pts with still bets IR.
Fair play FP. Superb.
Was also a scatter of placed horses in there at big prices Bayan 14s, Sgt Reckless 33s was 4th, Ballyalton 20s
That’s some serious ante post tipping their,
SDG @ 25/1 :cla;
We could lose it all today, keep him focused lads ffs.
Fenners is a legend of this forum and also in life. Le fin.
Fenners for Winners
[quote=“dancarter, post: 916281, member: 122”]I make that 178 pts back so -2 pts with still bets IR.
Fair play FP. Superb.
Was also a scatter of placed horses in there at big prices Bayan 14s, Sgt Reckless 33s was 4th, Ballyalton 20s[/quote]
i thought we were to do them win only?
Correct. My point was purely for illustration
The real punters would never have a ladies bet or piss and moan when a few free tips didn’t come up would they Mickee mate
The more lily livered may have benefitted from the ew though.
[quote=“dancarter, post: 916352, member: 122”]Correct. My point was purely for illustration
The real punters would never have a ladies bet or piss and moan when a few free tips didn’t come up would they Mickee mate
The more lily livered may have benefitted from the ew though.[/quote]
i have 20 on the nose on every one of Fenner’s tips, long may it continue
Thanks Fenners. You legend!