With the Paddy Power meeting beginning on Friday, it is time to start another betting log. Hopefully, this will be more successful than it’s previous incarnate.
Some changes:
As a result of change number 2, I will be putting in a lot more research/effort. Thus each selection will include a rational for it’s selection.
Good luck to those who follow.
Finally, another betting thread that can be talked of in the same breath as the Degenerates.
Lets do this @fenwaypark
[QUOTE=“fenwaypark, post: 1042823, member: 276”]With the Paddy Power meeting beginning on Friday, it is time to start another betting log. Hopefully, this will be more successful than it’s previous incarnate.
Some changes:
As a result of change number 2, I will be putting in a lot more research/effort. Thus each selection will include a rational for it’s selection.
Good luck to those who follow.[/QUOTE]
Great stuff.
Just on point one, why the decision to restrict yourself to 2pt win at most? What if you are mad keen on something and want to go balls deep on the bet?
[QUOTE=“Tess Tickle, post: 1042832, member: 2269”]Great stuff.
Just on point one, why the decision to restrict yourself to 2pt win at most? What if you are mad keen on something and want to go balls deep on the bet?[/QUOTE]
I am a firm believer in level stakes betting. I put up an article on successful punting on here a few years back which explained the rational quite well. Essentially after considering on the ponderables (odds, ground, distance, trainer form, jockey booking etc etc), if a horse is a play you back it at your normal stake.
@Tess Tickle http://www.thefreekick.com/board/index.php?threads/how-to-bet-successfully-on-national-hunt-racing.14681/
Lovely, I am looking forward to following this thread out to April.
Summer holidays to pay for
Ok so say you’re betting €100 a pt for argument sake. You really fancy a horse and he’s even money, you will only got to 2pts as this is your limit so €200 is the bet? But then another day you have a sneaky feeling for a horse at 25/1, you think he’s a biggish price and has a bit of a squeak and fancy betting it. You’ll go 1pt e/way. So you’re having €100 e/way on it?
Not trying to knock you’re rational but get my head around it. I’m inclined to have a broader scale.
One could be inclined to lose on a much broader scale too?
Or win on a much broader scale.
[QUOTE=“Tess Tickle, post: 1042886, member: 2269”]Ok so say you’re betting €100 a pt for argument sake. You really fancy a horse and he’s even money, you will only got to 2pts as this is your limit so €200 is the bet? But then another day you have a sneaky feeling for a horse at 25/1, you think he’s a biggish price and has a bit of a squeak and fancy betting it. You’ll go 1pt e/way. So you’re having €100 e/way on it?
Not trying to knock you’re rational but get my head around it. I’m inclined to have a broader scale.[/QUOTE]
Broadly speaking, I’d have the same stake on a 5-1 shot as I would a 16-1 shot. Sometimes I may go ew on these selections, other times I would not. It all depends on the horse/race etc as each race is a unique event and must be treated as such.
3.00 Cheltenham - Champagne Present 2pts win 9-2 (Stan James BOG)
Formerly trained in Ireland by Paul Cashman, this Presenting gelding changed hands for £210k after winning a Kilmallock point in impressive fashion (soft ground). He made his rules debut at Aintree in October (good) where he was mugged by Henry Daly’s Chicoria. He looked all over the winner after tanking into the lead, it must be said that it was not AP McCoy’s finest ride. Comparisons with Black Jack Ketchum are envitable giving connections but one could not be but impressed by how he travelled through this race. He is effectively a winner without a penalty and I would be pretty disappointed if he fails to confirm that initial impression tomorrow.
2.30 Cheltenham 1pt ew Champion Court 25-1 (Bet 365 1/4 odds 5 BOG)
2.30 Cheltenham 2pts win Present View 13-2 (Paddypower BOG)
1.50 Cheltenham 2pts win Lamb or Cod 12-1 (Stanjames BOG)
2.30 Cheltenham - One of the early season’s highlights is the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I have long held the view that Present View is a horse on a huge upward curve. He ended last season by winning the Novices Handicap Chase over course and distance at the Festival. This was run on the old course which is the same course used for the Paddy Power Meeting. He won that off 137 and runs here off 144 and based upon his reappearance over the smaller obstacles, he looks a much stronger and improved horse. Certainly 144 could greatly underestimate his ability. He is short enough now, but 13-2 is still value.
I can’t resist selecting Champion Court ew at 25s. He went off favourite for this race last year off a mark of 157. The Handicapper has been gradually dropping him and he nows runs off 149. This is 6 pounds lower than his last winning mark. While his last few runs have been less than inspiring, he showed in last year’s Peterborough Chase that he retains plenty of ability and is far from a back number. Interestingly, he is wearing first time Cheekpieces and these just might sharpen him up. The excellent Wayne Hutchinson gets the leg up for the first time. Simply put, 25s greatly underestimates his chance.
1.50 Cheltenham - Philip Hobbs is in a very rich vein of form. He runs Lamb or Cod in this extended 3m 3f contest. The latter goes pretty well at this track with a 2-1 in his last two visits. He appeals as a progressive young staying chaser on the up and all things considered, he looks overpriced at 12s.
Cheek pieces on Champion Court is very interesting. He’s got a very decent record around Cheltenham too.
Savage record over course and distance.
2nd in old Jewson, won the Dipper, was he placed in Ryanair too?
Don’t think so.
I will stick with Easter Meteor, but re an outsider, I would suggest Edgardo sol. he walloped the wing of the first 7 fences in the old roan and still finished well (2nd) behind Wishful Thinking. His previous run behind brother brian looks quite smart after today @33s. Probably not good enough to win it be could run very well
1.00 Cheltenham 2pts win Saphir River 20-1 (Totesport BOG)
1.35 Cheltenham 2pts win The Govaness 10-1 (Bet 365 BOG)
2.10 Cheltenham 2pts win Duke of Navan 11-2 (Bet 365 BOG)
3.15 Cheltenham 2pts win Goodwood Mirage 11-1 (Paddypower BOG)
