Looking forward to this.
[QUOTE=“fenwaypark, post: 1097979, member: 276”]Champion Bumper AP Sea The World 2pts win 16-1 (StanJames)
[/QUOTE]
Non runner unfortunately Fenners
Yeah seen that. On the upside, Yanworth looks a likely runner.
3.10 Sandown Arzal 2pts win 14-1 (Stanjames)
Arkle Trophy W/O UDS Three Kingdoms 2pts win 8-1 (Skybet)
100/1 for Arzal to win tomorrow and at the festival. Would you take it or just lump tomorrows winnings on at whatever price he ends up for County Hurdle?
Very tough to do double. 14s is very fair for tomorrow.
@fenwaypark can we have your race by race picks please? I’ve got nothing backed ante post and wouldn’t mind firing off some bets tonight.
Day 1
Supreme Novice - I have Jollyallan AP at 25s. He is gone way too short now and could not put him up at his current price of 8s. Douvan could be the real deal but all his wins are righthanded on soft ground. He could win easily but at 7-4 he is not for me. I thought Seedling ran a great trial last time out, and the form of that race has worked out really well. He looks overpriced at 20s and am happy to have him and Jollyallan at selected prices against the field.
Arkle - UDS is the probable winner but I think Three Kingdoms will run a huge race and have selected him AP w/o UDS at 8s. He may well be worth backing ew at 20s, just in case some misfortune bestows the favourite. I also think that Josses Hill will relish the end to end gallop and may be worth a play ew at 11s.
Champion Hurdle - Have selected Faugheen antepost at 16s (old thread) and 9-4 on this thread. At odds against he is still value. Think he is the real deal and hopefully puts up a performance to validate that opinion.
Mares Hurdle - Have selected Polly Peachum at 16s AP. She has 7 pounds to find with Annie Power on official ratings but she is running over her ideal trip and will get her ground. She is a great bet w/o AP at 4s. She looks the main danger to the Rich Ricci machine.
National Hunt Chase - I have Wounded Warrior at 10s AP. I think he is the class horse in the race and the probable winner. He is still value at 5s. Would greatly respect the chance of Cause of causes here. At 9s, he represents serious value and would be happy to have those two on my side.
Festival Handicap Chase - I have Vino Griego at 33s AP. He is now a very well handicapped horse. Think he could be the each way bet of the Festival. You can still back him at 33s. That wont last long.
Novices Handicap - Have selected Keltus at 20s AP. He looks a right plot, having run a blinding race in Fred Winter last year. You can still get him at 14s. I am keen enough on Creepy at 33s aswell. He will be top weight but I think he has the potential to run a massive race back on this type of ground.
Day 2
Neptune Hurdle - I think Parlour Games has by far the best form in the race. If he was with Mullins, Henderson et al, he would be a much shorter price than 6s. I like Windsor Park, but feels that he does not jump well enough for a test like this. I had put up Alvisio Ville at 20s AP but he is a NR now.
RSA - Think Don Poli is a future Gold Cup horse and one of the naps of the meeting. Find very few negatives in a race that looks like he will be run to suit with plenty of pace on the front end. 5-2 is a fair price but will hopefully be a bit bigger on the day.
Coral Cup - Have selected Aux Ptits Soin at 16s AP. Looks pretty short now at 8s but could be thrown in. If Buywise is declared here, I will be putting him up aswell. Horse has a serious engine.
Champion Chase - I have Sire De Grugy at 9-2 AP. Much like Don Poli, it looks like the race will be run to suit. At 3s, he still represent good value.
Fred Winter - Have Thunder Zone selected at 20s AP. This race is a lottery but Thunder Zone has a similar enough profile to Clarcam who was very unlucky in this race last year. Can still be backed at 14s.
Champion Bumper - Sea the World was selected AP at 16s but is now a NR. Yanworth was also selected AP at 33s. Was beaten by Supasundae in the best bumper run this year IMHO. Winner got first run on him that day and I’m hoping that the better ground and faster pace (keen last day) will help him reverse form. Think the Irish horses are a much of a muchness with probably our best bumper horse not running. I do like Moon Racer, Wait for me and Modus of the others. Think the English will definitely take this.
Who is our best bumper horse Fenway, who you say is not running?
Day 3
JLT Novices
Had selected Three Kingdoms AP but he is a NR. We look to have a really strong hand here with Vautour, Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido. Vautour at 9-4 is the bet for me. He was far from impressive prior to the Festival last year, but came to life on the better ground. I think we will see something similar this year. I really like VL, but think he is much better with give in the ground. I could see The Tullow Tank outrunning his odds of 20s as he ran a real eyecatching race last time out.
Pertemps
I have Edeymi at 16s AP. He has run well at the Festival before and was a huge eyecatcher on his last run. His current price of 8s is short enough. Of the others Unique De Cotte interest me at 16s.
Ryanair - Have selected Eduard at 25s AP. Think he will run a massive race in what is a pretty open contest. His current price of 16s is value. Don Cossack looks a much improved horse this year and is the class act in the race. However, his run in the RSA last year puts me off. Of the others Ma Filleule is a big danger in receipt of the mares allowance but is pretty short at 5s. Think Foxrock at 8s is value but he travelled over badly last year and I’d be worried that something similar could happen this year. If the vibes are positive for him, I would definitely back him on the day.
World Hurdle - More Of That was selected AP but is now a NR. Looks a very open renewal now. I was warming to Rock on ruby in the past few days but he is now a NR aswell. Think Monksland will run a huge race on this better ground and gun to my head would probably select him at 16s.
Plate - Have selected Buywise AP at 14s. As mention above, he has a serious engine but the fences get in the way. If he even jumps moderately he will win this race comfortably. That is a big IF, however. Champion Court is well handicapped now and would probably select him at 25s aswell.
Kim Muir - No idea
Day 4
Triumph Hurdle
Have selected Pain Au Chocolat at 25s AP. Peace and Co is a worthy favourite and may in time prove to be the best horse in the race. However, he is very keen and I’d worry that this may cost him in what looks a well above average renewal. Think Simon Munir will have the winner anyway in the shape of Top Notch at 10s. He looks ultra professional and the right type for a test like this.
County Hurdle
Selected Arzal at 20s AP but that looks dead in the water now. No strong opinion on this race now.
Albert Bartlett
Selected Martello Tower at 16s AP. I really like this fella and would love to see Barry Connell have a winner. You can still back him at 12s which is a great price. I would fear No More Heroes the most. Forget his last run as he was not right. He looks over priced at 7s and can see one of these winning the race.
Gold Cup
Have selected Many Clouds AP at 10s but I’d be worried that the ground will scupper his chance. Think Silviniaco Conte is better on a flatter track. Road to riches showed his versatility by taking a tow into the Lexus. I think he is a big big improver and at 10s would be my selection.
Grand Annual
Have selected Ned Buntline at 10s AP. If he reproduces last year’s run he is the one they all have to beat. Currently 5s, I’d expect him to go off a good bit shorter. I like Karinga Dancer here aswell. He needs better ground and would also put him up as a bit of value at 25s.
Grand Annual AP Karinga Dancer 2pts win 25-1 (Boylesport NRNB)
Gold Cup AP Road To Riches 2pts win 10-1 (William Hill NRNB)
Albert Bartlett AP No More Heroes 2pts win 7-1 (Coral NRNB)
Triumph AP Top Notch 2pts win 10-1 (Totesport NRNB)
Plate AP Champion Court 2pts win 25-1 (Bet Victor NRNB)
World Hurdle AP Monksland 2pts win 16-1 (Coral NRNB)
Novices Handicap AP Creepy 2pts win 33-1 (Ladbrokes NRNB)
Supreme AP Seedling 2pts win 20-1 (Bet 365 NRNB)
Giggy horse trained by Elliot (name escapes me)
Tremendous read as always Fenners, thanks for posting.
Good stuff fenners
Tycoon Prince ?