An iconic final too. Conor Meyler leading St Mary’s to a shock victory against a star studded UCD team.
Cuala must be a play -3. Surely far too much class. I’ve an Errigal/Cuala -3 double done.
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I’d agree with that.
Coolera will keep it tight but the O’Callaghan’s will surely be able to make an ‘incision’ or two that will break their spirits.
The Errigal game another classic of the genre that you should always take the ‘to qualify’ market at the shorter price in these big knockout games. I’m now preprogrammed to do as such.
My logic around the Canavan’s cutting loose against a lesser defence than Kilcoo proved correct.
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@endakenny backed the draw? He’s making more money off club GAA than the mercenary managers.
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I’d 2 points on EC -2, half way through the second half I had 0.5pts on the draw as it was going that way. Broke even in the end.
I’ve had a good start to 2025 thanks to some discipline, research and also with the help of @Whackersstud11 knowledge of drinking habits of French rugby teams.
Tomorrows all Ireland club junior final sees me approach it with a double pronged approach which may not co-exist together fully but I’ve went for them anyway.
Angle 1: u45.5 points @ 5/6. 3 points with Bet365
Pp have the over/under at 41.5 whilst bs go 43.5.
Looking back on the history of this final, only one time has the final went over 45.5 and that was a freak game where it finished 5-12 to 2-21.
January conditions in relatively cold weather in games played by third grade teams in Croke park which brings all the nerves are not conjusive to such totals. Now I will say these two teams have more quality than average which may explain my second angle but 45.5 would mean a shooting accuracy of 80%+ and/or 3+ goals.
Over 45.5 is a 5/2 shot by my maths so I’ve had to back unders @ 5/6 (I hate backing unders btw).
The only other game that compares to the junior final is the intermediate final which has only went over 45.5 once, that was when Tullaroan played Fr O Neills, two teams that had massive firepower.
It must be remembered these are 60 minute games, 45.5 is the equivalent of 53.5 in the 70 minute game.
Angle 2:
Kilkennys 25th best team play Corks 49th in this final and I’m taking Kilkennys 25th every day of the week.
St.Lachtains come into this final as a team who feel they should be nearer to the second game of the day, the intermediate final.
Since surprisingly going down junior after being relegated at the end of 2022 they have lost one game of note, the 2023 junior county final to Tullogher who went on and won last year’s edition by a wide margin.
They have threatened so much this year without playing to their utmost potential but I was very pleased with their dismissal of Easkey without former KK senior panellists Brian kennedy & James Maher.
Darren Brennan is an outstanding keeper who was no.2 to Murphy with KK and they have 5 scoring forwards, albeit they are not the most mobile.
Russell rovers were previously in this final in 2020 with the majority of the same team. On that occasion they were beaten relatively comfortably by Conahy Shamrocks of KK. I’d rate Lachtains ahead of Conahy.
They have gained former cork footballer Ciaran Sheehan who acts as a target man and creator for others.
Lachtains struggled in the Leinster final when a hugely physical Wexford side (they were senior football champions) overran them but although they are mobile, Russell rovers play a traditional style that will suit Lachtains. I fancy them to win well.
2.5 points -1 @ evens
.75 points -4
.5 points -9
.25 points -15 @20/1
Angle 2 is paddy power prices.
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Magic stuff
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Punting masterclass 
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Nice
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Great shout. Thanks
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Well done
Perfectly explained and reasoning
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Have we an actual betting savant here finally lads? After all these years!
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Another good weekend punting.
The -9 was definitely on there but the Lachtains manager inexplicably took off James Maher with ten minutes left which left Russell rovers back into the game a bit.
I had a similiar weekend last year backing KK teams but gave a lot of it back.
Key now is to remain disciplined.
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Excellent tipping again @endakenny
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Tremendous stuff as ever. Worked out exactly as per write up. Brilliant
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The fitzgibbon cup begins this Wednesday, the prices are available for Wednesdays games but nothing stands out thus far.
On the outright market it looks like a 4 horse race between UL (8/15), Galway (5/1), UCC (6/1) and Mary I (15/2). It’s big prices bar that.
The groups are as follows
UG, UCC, MTU (CIT) & UCD
UL, Mary I, ATUG (GIT) and SETU (WIT)
DCU, Maynooth & LIT
The top 2 groups should be straight forward enough with the teams in bold progressing.
UCC v UG and Mary I v UL I will decide top spot in both groups barring CIT can raise their games for a local derby v UCC who looked very average in that canon o brien cup game v Cork.
I’m turning this 4 horse race into a 3 horse one straight away as although UCC should still reach a semi. They have Galway at home in the Mardyke but I can’t have them to win it out.
It leaves you with UL who have the strongest panel in the championship by far, as a former UL alumni I reckon there could be 200 fitzgibbon cup standard players but you can only put 15 of them on the pitch at one time. At 4/7, they are no value whatsoever especially without Mark Rodgers.
Mary I are very good value at 15/2 and arguably have a stronger panel than last year but will the hunger be there? They are down a few bodies but have gained some too. Not sure do they have a goalkeeper.
Daithi Lohan, Eoin Lawless (Galway), Fionn McDonagh (started final last year), Cathrach Daly, Ben Currivan, Vince Harrington (played final), Cian Scully and Jimmy Quilty will all be well able for Fitzgibbon cup.
But Diarmuid Ryan at 6 will be a colossal loss. Cathal Quinn & Devon Ryan were also important players at 8 & 11 last year who are also gone. Keith Ryan was good at 3, it leaves you with a lot of central players to be replaced which is never easy.
That leaves me with Galway who will be extremely hungry to win this title on home soil.
They lost last years semi final by a point to UL before previously losing to them in the previous finals, the 2022 edition being a game that they should’ve won.
They’ve serious quality across the park and have gained some good second years in Dan Bourke (Offaly), Reabun Devitt to name but a few. They recently brought UL to penalties in the league semi final. Presuming UL & UG top their groups they won’t meet until the final which will be a 50/50 game with home advantage.
2 points EW @ 5/1 with Bet 365.
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Galway can put out a serious team from 8-15.
Gavin Lee
Ian McGlynn
Dan Bourke
Tiernan Kileen
Colm Molloy
Charlie Mitchell
Greg Thomas
Liam Collins
From 1-7 will be the issue. Josh Ryan and Darren Morrissey are good but who else @gailliamhs
Frank Lohan over them this after Jeff Lynskey who was unlucky with them.
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Tiernan Kileen will play 6. Daniel Loftus started last year so he’s back.
They’ve that Hanrahan from Loughrea, Harriman from Athenry and Tarpey from Turlough according to the raw fella on the Maroon & White podcasht.
Tiernan Leen also good player around the middle.
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