Gaa Draw 2016

The balance of probability says it shouldn’t.

I don’t see the context of that. I’m not excusing cheating because “it’s honest”, that would be an oxymoron.

Less of the name-calling. Post reported.

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Numbskull is the name that is bouncing around my head for you today.

Leave it off, it actually doesn’t matter. You can be right if you want.

Yes, your resentment towards your betters is sickening and indecent. Show some respect for once in your life.

What are you better at?

Posting people into submission with idiotic arguments?
Or moving the goal posts in discussions to support an Ulster bias.

Off with ya.

Draws are largely irrelevant. Best teams will make 1/4’s.

Basically the GAA season (of true interest) is around the same level as the 6Nations is now. Number of weeks guessing, a few weeks enjoying.

Draws are not irrelevant. They are entirely relevant.

Are Fermanagh a better team than Galway? No, the draw is relevant.

Similarly are Cork a better team than Tyrone? No they’re not. Cork got to a QF in 2014 by beating Sligo and Tipp.

You also get to the QF stage with some teams having to peak a lot earlier and having expended alot more energy.

Your insecurity about the strength of Ulster football leads you to making badly constructed arguments that fly in the face of facts and then running away when you’re caught out. In you had any decency you would own up and admit you’re both clueless and a clown but you don’t have a shred of that in you.

There was a 1/3 chance of Cork and Kerry being drawn together, with the two being guaranteed a place in the Semis.

The seeding of the Munster finalists is a nice subtle way for the Munster Council to dramatically increase the chances of the two avoiding each other vs an open draw which I reckon (on a fairly flawed calc which assumes Cork & Kerry are guaranteed to win quarters if they end up in them) is 2/3.

A few things;
2 of those years at least were seeded. So now we are down to 3/10. Which is almost bang on the expected for a 1/3 shot. I’m not sure how long the munster finalists have been guaranteed semi finals which does shift the maths.
12 is a bizarre number of years for you to pick. Did you stop at twelve because it fucked up your argument if you went back further by any chance?

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Why is 12 bizarre? It’s put a limit on it and there’s a trend in place in the past 12 consecutive seasons that Kerry and Coak have conveniently not drawn each other for the most part.

Continue being an ostrich though.

12 is, statistically speaking, a completely insignificant time frame.
We are a society based on a decimal system which traditionally lends itself to 5,10,15.
I’ve already shown that 3/10 is well within expected limits in fact 3/10 or 4/10 is exactly what you’d expect.

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Clare are back training next week :eek:

How is it a statistically insignificant time frame? My contention is that Kerry and Cork conveniently avoid each other until the Munster final. In 12 Championship years this has been evident in how the draw has panned out so the timeframe is completely relevant.

The draw seems to be systematically rigged in order to guarantee Cork and Kerry a last 12 place.

Dear Nembo,

I hope this note finds you well.

As you are aware we were recently engaged in a debate regarding the statistical likeliness of Kerry & Cork avoiding each other in the Munster Football Championship.
I engaged in this debate in good faith that you would at least address the issues I raised in opposition to your points, as is the socially understood convention for debates.
It has however since become obvious to me that you will not be following said social conventions making the process of debate with you difficult if not impossible, this in addition to the fact that you suffer from some fundamental misunderstandings of how probability works, means I’m afraid I will no longer be able to continue this debate with you.

Please take this as notice of my withdrawal from said debate.

In your defence I should have known better.

Good day to you sir,

Julio

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The issues you raised were not relevant to the issue at hand. I contended that there was a systematic imbalance in the Munster Championship whereby Cork and Kerry were conveniently segregated in the draw. I referred to a continuous time line that reinforced this point.

You were the one who buried their head in the sand when discussing this matter and tried to move the matter somewhere else. Why not just deal with the point of how the interests of Cork and Kerry are protected above others?

Cork =Div 1
Tyrone = not Div 1

League is more important than provincials now. Better practice.
Best 6-7 teams make it to 1/4’s with maybe ine or 2 lucky with a draw. But those “lucky” teams never win it.

THATS THE REALITY
BITCH.

I think that only Cavan should ever be seeded in Ulster and I’m using the timeline of 1990 back to the beginning of time to point to the fact that there’s no point in the rest of the Ulster teams being allowed to waste time playing in the semi finals and finals.

Also Wexford, based on their utter dominance between 1914-17, should be granted direct passage to the All Ireland final every year.

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Why are they both listed in Div 1 table there so?

It’s also grand bringing the divisions into it - but Cork have only managed to beat one team outside of Div 3 and 4 ( a 1 point win over Galway in 2013) in the past three Championship seasons.

That’s irrelevant to the present tense. Drawing a continuous time line from the present to a cit off point in the past certainly bears logic, a concept seemingly alien to you.

Hahaha.

You are some ticket.

If tyrone play in division one in the next season i will give you everything i own.

I’m not the guy who put up a Div 1 table that listed both Cork and Tyrone in it and tried to say it said something different.

Almost as laughable as your league being more important tripe. League is preparation for Championship football. Don’t know how many teams are bothered with the trophy out of it.