Just thinking, FF wonât be that happy. I think itâs less than the % they got in the local elections in 2014.
The electorate have basically been unimpressed with the 4 major parties. 30% of them didnât go near them.
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The key to this now is where the transfers from the Independents go.
Lot of hurling to play yet.
I saw a few people at my station getting pulled for this Irish Times poll this morning. I was surprised by how swift and simple the process was â they were just askeing them to replicate their first three preferences and initial it. The RTE poll tends to be far more detailed, drilling down into reasons for voting etc.
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[quote=âtallback, post:64, topic:21986, full:trueâ].
Just thinking, FF wonât be that happy. I think itâs less than the % they got in the local elections in 2014.
The electorate have basically been unimpressed with the 4 major parties. 30% of them didnât go near them.
[/quote]
Correct. Thatâs the move alright - itâs similar to the 2014 Locals but with a drift from FF to independents. Youâd imagine that historically there has been more support for independents at local elections than the general election but the lack of a credible message from big parties is killing them.
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What?
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Labour will be bracing themselves for an epic day of squeaky bumming. The more optimistic of them will be looking at 10-12 seats but in reality itâll be knife edge stuff for most of the Labour lads.
There are a few big names in O RiordĂĄin and Nash who really need to pull through for the party.
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Break that into numper of seats
Fine Gael have ran far too may candidates. Fianna Fail largely seem to have got the balance right on their tickets. If these figures are accurate, there wonât be much seat wise between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
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Itâs impossible.
FG 45-55
FF 35-45
Lab 6-12
SF 18-28
The rest with the remainder.
I donât know. That sort of rough breakdown.
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This is Fianna Fail country, donât know why anyoneâs fighting it. 3% below the blueshirts after the worst 7 or 8 years in the history of the party. Elect Micheal Martin as Taoiseach and donât bother with another vote in a few months
Mary Hanafin on the radio - Jaysis the FF smugness is back big time.
it is forget that
On 26.1%, as well as Labourâs poor 7.8% figure, Fine Gael wonât be picking up many second seats.
The 2nd seats in the likes of Cavan-Monaghan, Clare, Cork East, Cork South-Central, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Rathdown, Dublin South-West, Galway West, Meath East, Waterford, Wexford etc look gone.
2nd seats in Limerick City, Kerry, Wicklow will be under threat.
3rd seat in Mayo could be gone too, and they may not get a seat at all in Donegal and Dublin North West. Even Pascal Donohue could be at risk in Dublin Central.
Looks like theyâll be below 50.
Itâs hard to see how itâll play out or where those seats will go. In Dublin both FF and SF at about 15 with FG at 25.4
All the independents votes and transfers will decide it. Also the IT showing indications of strong transfers between FG/Lab
Itâs such a weird poll that all prediction models will be off
FG - 46
FF - 41
I thought SF could get 33 but thats seems too high an expectation now.
How many seats do you see Labour getting ?
The key is how much damage was done to our boy Shiels by that hussey.
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Fine Gael didnât have one seat yet alone two in Dublin South West going into this election.
Still would go for 9 at a guess.
At 7.8% some of their better vote getters like Howlin, Penrose and Stagg will probably hold on as there will obviously be a variation between constituencies because there are a lot of rural constituencies where they are weak.
Itâs nuts. Pringle would have been a dead cert but for SF running 3 candidates.
Iâll let you know what Donegal Daily says in the morning.