I never mentioned anything about the H-blocks @Nembo jumped in and bizarrely stated Adams was never in the H-Blocks. I have no idea why. He was incorrect and can consider himself officially mugged off.
I had no idea whether Adams spent time in the H-Blocks or not, but Nembo said he was never in the H-Blocks. I was going to pedantically point out that Adams was involved in numerous meetings with prisoners in the H-Blocks during the Hunger strikes and therefore had definitely been in the H-Blocks, that tweet was just a bonus.
If Lucinda Creighton gets to be involved then Eamon has every right to be put out at not being there. Both parties will be doing well to get one elected.
In the most recent phase of our struggle, imprisoned republicans have used the various prisons for a whole new generation of Irish-language activism, Long Kesh being the most notable because of the vast numbers that passed through the camp over a 27-year period. In the earlier 1970s, republican prisoners, both internees and sentenced, used a number of Nissan huts as Gaeltacht (Irish-speaking) areas. This facility allowed the language to flourish amongst the prisoners; the most famous student of that time was the young Bobby Sands.
It allowed them to learn Irish, it was not a necessity to speak Irish in order to pass communications as it was in the H Blocks where prisoners were confined to cells and needed Irish in order to communicate with the prison officers deciphering.
Adams was enrolled in a class to learn Irish in Leinster House lately. I see youāre being pedantic and shifty in order to win an argument, carry on.
Iād fucking love it if Creighton lost her seat. I hope the die-hard Fine Gael gene pool conservatives switch their vote to the lovely, pro-choice Kate OāConnell instead.
My latest forecast which was two weeks ago was as follows:
FG 55
FF 37
SF 30
LAB 10
SOC DEM 3
RENUA 2
GREEN 1
OTHERS 20 (12 left leaning, 7 right-leaning, 1 whatever gets me elected)
Iāll be revising and refining that this week and again immediately before the election.
Regarding Renua Iām now wavering on whether theyāll even get two seats as Iām not sure thereās room for Billy Timmins and two FG seats in Wicklow.
Iām coming around to your idea of labour @ 10 I had thought theyād get more but jesus they do themselves no favours.
Iād love to know who they are paying for their PR/Spin.
They were out today saying they carried out 95% of their election promises. Iād imagine that this week theyāve identified broken promises as a key issue in their declining support (obviously). So they come out with this nonsense then, no cleverness about them at all, at all. Itās just fucking stupid actually because no one believes that and it just rubs everyone the wrong way. Delusional & aloof is the only way to describe them.
That kind of stuff in combination with Joan Burtons debate performance has led me to think they wonāt outperform expectations as I had originally thought.
Iāll be trying to gauge national patterns against the peculiarities of each constituency based on my intuition and experience as an election watcher.
I expect to revise Labour downwards from 10 and āOthersā upwards.
As the day draws closer, I would be checking out the odds of us all voting again come Christmas.
Based on @Sydney s figures, the only options are fg/ff or FG/SF.
Even fg and labour between them wont reach the 70 mark.
Ff wont support a minority government that is do low in numbers