Louth and Meath East.
They’ve two seats here, but a lot of that was to do with Gerry’s huge first preference getting Munster in. Like FF and FG, they’ve the constituency broke into two distinct areas with a candidate in each - the Drogheda and surrounds area and the Dundalk and surrounds area
I think SF will get two here. Peter Fitzpatrick, who has been Stone cold useless, might still sneak back in with a big GGA vote, although it’s not a constituency with a history of voting in Independents.
As most know here, I am not a SF voter or supporter. However, I’ve come to the conclusion that they should be given a rattle at government. The other crowds have done it and we’re still in the shite. Worst case scenario for them is that they go in as a junior partner and suffer same fate as Labour/ Green/ PDs. I think they’ll have too many seats to take it up the ass like those three parties though
To me FG will always be the rich farmers (my mother’s crowd - West Limerick farmers whose sons (including my grandfather) went off to become creamery managers)
FF have always been the poor farmers (my father’s side).
Thankfully neither of my parents have ever shown any particular loyalty to either crowd
You might just have hitched your tractor to the wrong trailer this time.
An ill-timed jump to the wrong bandwagon. But, knowing you, you’ll find the reverse gear…
I currently have it FF 54, FG 35, SF 30, Green 11, Labour 5, Soc Dem 4, Others 21.
Who is your 4th SD? GG,KM,RS &?
Niall O’Tuathail - Galway West
Not sure about that one but I’m giving it to him. Cian O’Callaghan Dublin Bay North could have a shout also.
You read the newspapers? Are you aware of the climate crisis
I think Farrell will finish ahead of him there now with the sf surge. The FG elimination will elect Crowe as FF2. Grealish and Dev Og are 1 and 2. I hope Connelly gets back she’s a good egg
There could be a lot of left transfers at play in Galway West - SF, Green, Labour plus assorted others. The constituency has always had a 4-1 right-left split but there’s a great chance of that changing this time.
Who are your 5 Labour
Howlin
AOR
Nash
Sherlock
Smith
Of those, I’d only be very confident about Howlin. Kelly could get in but I don’t know why people think he’s a cert. If SF do surge I’d say Humphreys is done for. Cork North Central might be an outside shot for Labour. SF are getting one seat there only and Barry could lose. Not sure if a Green surge will materialise there, I think it’s unlikely. There’s an independent FF gombeen running there, O’Flynn of the attempted murder family, who could throw things up in the air.
I’d say Kelly will come 3rd after Lowry and Mattie in Tipp
I wouldn’t say Kelly is a cert, he always got in by a narrow margin, but I think he’ll be slightly more comfortable this time. Seen to have delivered for North Tipperary in particular, First Data etc. and gets support from traditional middle class FG voters, business people etc. Who’ll pip him, the SF candidate is largely unknown, if they have a great day maybe he’d threaten Healy in Clonmel.
I think a lot of people think Healy could lose this time especially if SF surge but he transfers very well, he transferred much better than Kelly in 2016. Kelly was only 2k odd ahead of the SF candidate in 2016 in no. 1s, Healy 1700 ahead, so SF would have to be factored in as being in contention as well.
On the other side you have FF looking for a second seat and FG looking for one.
I’d say it’s two seats between five candidates with Lowry, McGrath and probably Cahill being safe.
I’ve a friend in the Labour campaign, embedded in the Dun Laoghaire faction who now believes it’s been a mistake to muzzle Kelly
He’s had an excellent campaign. Has really thrown the cat amongst the pigeons here
Seán Sherlock will get in in Cork East. Strong Fermoy vote. Up against that ginnot O’Keeffe
SF seem to have put zero effort into Limerick county. I’ve yet to see a single poster or get any literature for their candidate.