The breakout of polls by class, region and age show some interesting trends.
Apparently SF are now the most popular party for under 55s. It would seem a lot of that change is coming from 35-54 year olds rather than younger voters.
FG doing badly in Munster and Connacht but holding up better in Leinster/Dublin. Overall the tide is going out though.
I wouldn’t have thought FF would be too happy either - losing ground in Dublin, Leinster and Connacht. It would seem they are losing the “change” argument
No one talks about her much which is prolly a good thing. Seems to be getting the credit for the Connacht windfall. She’ll get back in on that alone I reckon
RTÉ met Sinn Féin today regarding the leaders’ debate this week (is it Tuesday?) and I’d say Mary Lou will be added to it tomorrow. It would have been fairly obscene to have the national broadcaster give the others the stage to lambast SF without giving them a right to reply. That said, it happened in the first Virgin Media debate with Pat Kenny but not critically late in the campaign.
It might actually suit SF to sit it out - they can play the siege mentality card, claim bias, same old stale, uninspiring message from FFG, we’re the agents of change etc etc. Or should they “front up” and take them on? Not sure a dual attack on MLMD would even play out all that well in any event, but FFG seem to be doubling down on that tactic if this weekend’s activity is anything to go by.
FG are not really attacking SF as they figure they won’t win votes from SF voters. They are attacking FF to win votes from FF voters (Or win back voters who have defected or returns to FF) on basis a vote for FF is a vote for SF government.
The FG strategy has been ill conceived and badly executed as it should mean FF and SF are transfer friendly.
FF gained voters from FG but now seem to be losing voters to SF and so it’s FF who need to attack SF.
All that being said a FF/SF government still
appears only realistic option.
Stop ffs.
Gender quota & nothing else at play there. I hope the 2 girls eat into that cunts vote & he loses out.
He influenced internal votes getting the ex Lab girl onto the ticket & shafted the Smiths ( bad move ).
The girl in Ballingarry has got a big vote in each of the last 2 Local elections & the Smiths are canvassing with her. Says it all really.
They’d be far better being left out for all the reasons you say.
Mary Lou was good on pre-prepared lines in prev debates but if it went into detail I.e “where will you find the builders to build all the houses you’re promising?” she got shakey fairly quickly.
She’s got her surge but now needs to hold it - more to lose than gain from a debate for her imho
Just on that specific example and not the wider point, Martin was amusing on that question in the Dobson interview on Friday evening. He said they’d run courses to get qualified people like he successfully did when the MNCs came to Ireland. I’d say Dobson will strongly challenge MLMD on the manifesto detail in her interview tomorrow night.
I think Martin has been very poor on the detail of his policies too - Dobson taking him apart a sign of that.
I actually think Varadkar has been strongest in detail because he’s a bit of a policy-wonk but I don’t think it’s done much for him. Howlin was decent too.
Occasionally, I prefer to gauge the pulse of the nation from my many e-buddies on here.
I’m a long time at this electioneering, the end result generally depends on the maths.
I’m on record here as calling the result as FF lead administration supported but not coalesced by FG. Them’s the figures as I see it. Personally, I can live with a FF/SF coalition but according to the media Martin is resisting this option.
I’m long enough involved to know, as you know yourself, the audit trail doesn’t lie.
81 the magic figure. Principles can be rethought when Mercs become the mode of carriage.