If everything goes their way, SF are looking at a possible 40 seats:
Certainties:
1 Louth
2 Louth
3 Donegal
4 Donegal
5 Dublin Mid-West
6 Dublin Mid-West
7 Cavan Monaghan
8 Cavan Monaghan
9 Dublin Fingal
10 Dublin Bay North
11 Dublin North West
12 Dublin West
13 Dublin Central
14 Dublin South Central
15 Dublin South West
16 Meath West
17 Meath East
18 Longford-Westmeath
19 Laois-Offaly
20 Wexford
21 Carlow-Kilkenny
22 Cork North Central
23 Cork South Central
24 Waterford
25 Limerick City
26 Sligo-Leitrim
27 Wicklow
28 Cork East
29 Kerry
All but certain
30 Dublin Bay South
31 Kildare North
32 Kildare North
Likely
33 Galway West
34 Mayo
35 Tipperary
36 Roscommon-Galway
Possibles
37 Clare
38 Galway East
39 Limerick County
40 Dublin Rathdown
Missed out:
41 Cork North West
42 Cork South West
43 Dun Laoighaire
I still think John Curran FF is in big trouble in Dublin Mid-West despite being in third after Count 1.
Casserly FG will push Higgins FG over the line.
There are a lot of left transfers at play. Workers’ Party, Francis Timmons, Labour, Green, Gogarty, etc. The question is whether Kavanagh Green or Gogarty can get ahead of Gino Kenny.
Kavanagh is just 165 behind Gogarty, Gogarty then is 622 behind Gino Kenny. Hard to tell who the candidate to run off against Curran will be but it’s squeaky bum time for Curran, who has just 667 FF transfers to rely on.
That’s untrue. O’Broin, Cullinane, Carthy, O’Reilly, Mac Lochlainn to name a handful more have all featured on likes of Prime Time, VM Tonight Show and Week in Politics. They’ve got half a dozen or operators who’ve pretty much destroyed their FFG counterparts on these shows. Yes, some unheralded / unknown quantities will be elected but they’ll have benefited from that core leadership team rather than it being a 2-person thing.
