Current state of play in Roscommon:
Quota 11404
Naughten IND (former FG) 10866
Kerrane SF 9402
Murphy FF 7242
There are two counts left:
i) The transfers of Dolan FG - 6162, will now be distributed.
ii) Then Naughten’s surplus will be distributed and that looks like it will be a good size surplus.
All this will happen tomorrow probably - because in the last 10 minutes the whole of Roscommon town has suffered a power cut.
Are they still counting in Clare?
Could it be a Wynne win situation for Sinn Féin?
No.
Yes.
Mayo is still counting. I think Cork South West may be too.
What about Carlow/Kilkenny @GeoffreyBoycott?
They’re still counting in Waterford. on Count 5. Una Dunphy has been eliminated 29 behind Damien Geoghegan. Casey is 1,100 ahead of Geoghegan. Key here is the rate of transfer from Geoghegan to John Cummins as against Dunphy to Casey. There’ll be some spillage there as well to Matt Shanahan but some of that Fine Gael vote will spill to Casey/Shanahan too and Dunphy won’t apill to Fine Gael.
Still reckon Fine Gael under serious pressure to hold a seat and it looks like a Green gain.
Roscommon count is continuing in darkness. Really.
Everything happens in darkness in Roscommon
Carlow/Kilkenny finished for the night. Adrienne Wallace PBP next to be eliminated. She’s a Carlow candidate. Deering might get a few but it would only be. Temporary reprieve. Can’t see Bobby Aylward getting too many of her 4,800 odd and Malcolm Noonan should gobble up the deficit in Aylward.
Lombard FG has pulled 2k odd ahead of Holly Cairns in Cork South West on FG transfers. Transfers of Murphy O’Mahony FF - 4863 to be distributed next. They will mostly go to Christopher O’Sullivan FF and push him towards the quota.
Finally there will be at least 5500 SF transfers to distribute. They should skew towards Cairns, but whether it will be enough to close a 2k gap is another thing entirely.
Kevin O’Keeffe loses his seat in Cork East.
Wow. Linehan Foley’s transfers skewed massively for O’Connor.
I wasn’t aware until a few minutes ago that Christopher O’Sullivan FF and Holly Cairns Soc Dems are romantically involved.
No, back at 10 am
Dillon elected in Mayo. Chambers loses her seat.
Roscommon-Galway adjourned until 12pm.
Holly Cairns has 2082 to make up on Tim Lombard off SF transfers. They are counting now. Waterford also still counting.
PBP transfers did not spill. Very difficult task facing FG now to make up the gap on O’Cathasaigh of the Greens. The gap is 3,238 and there are 5549 FG transfers at play.
If SF take Roscommon and Clare I make it they’ll have 37 seats.
FG have fallen away a bit this evening and no look set to be below SF. I make 34-36. they’ll get, with FF on 41/42.
Soc Dems have a chance to get six. Whitmore and O’Callaghan look likely. Gannon still has a good chance in Dublin central. And Cairns has a photo finish coming up in Cork South West as I type.
The Greens could get 12. These are:
Noonan Carlow/KK
O’Brien Fingal
Hourigan Dublin Central
Ryan Dublin Bay South
O’Gorman Dublin West
Duffy Dublin South West
Costello Dublin South Central
Smyth Dun Laoighaire
Martin Dublin Rathdown
Leddin Limerick City
O’Cathasaigh Waterford
Matthews Wicklow
Kildare North and Cork North Central are very outside chances still but unlikely.
Labour will have Howlin, Sherlock, AOR, Kelly, possibly Nash, and possibly Smith although the last is beginning to look dodgy. Jan O’Sullivan is still just about in the hunt in Limerick but will probably lose out.
Whisperings that Cork South West is very tight and could even require a recount.
O’Cathasaigh elected in Waterford.
1 SF 1 FF 1 IND 1 GREEN
Cairns elected. 1 IND 1 FF 1 SOC DEM.