Are you referring to SF or TFK here?
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If FF and FG get in together then SF are absolutely guaranteed 40+ seats for the rest of time and itâs also very difficult to see how FF or FG could peel off from each other again to get in with SF. Thereâd also be nothing to distinguish FF and FG, meaning that it would be very hard for one to outgrow the other and also meaning that if one ever did peel off from the other to go in with SF it would probably be as a junior partner, which neither of them would want to do.
So that all means that if FF and FG do go into coalition in these circumstances, theyâll find it very hard to ever get out of it and thereâs a good chance theyâll eventually merge.
FG are therefore making the wrong strategic move by going into coalition with FF. If they supported them in a minority FF government they might have a decent chance of outgrowing them again but now they will have none.
Nothing is forever
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FF are playing a particularly dangerous game. Champ was making noises about possibly another election before the year is out. IRA/SF vote would shoot up again in another election but Iâd expect FG to get a bounce too and FF to get squeezed. That flaky middle class vote that went with the likes of Greens this time would find its way home to FG. You could see it happening even in the final days of this campaign, once it became apparent that IRA/SF werenât going to fall away, FG got a bit of a bounce off the floor.
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Theres already nothing to distinguish FF/FG. Hence the massive swing to parties offering a genuine fresh alternative. Change the electorate is demanding and change the electorate shall have
Fianna Fail
Anyone under 35 isnât frightened or upset or appalled by someone lad shouting Up The RaâŚthey might think heâs a gobshite but thatâs it.
Itâs the same way the Paul Quinn murder didnât resonate with them. They donât give a fuck about the Paul Quinn murder or about a young fella in Drogheda being chopped up.
They care about the elderly grandparents or parent if they are sick of course but the biggest thing is the massive rent they are paying and that they see themselves as having no chance to buy a home.
Itâs not just the story of the Garda and the Teacher who canât afford a house, most young people if they move out and are paying huge rents, canât save to buy a house. They feel left behind by FG and FF who have let this happen.
The ones who have stayed at home have the parents driven mad. Least in old Ireland the girlfriend/boyfriend slept on the sofa or in the spare room at the weekend and knew any wandering during the night could lead to tar and featherâŚNot now! Those parents want rid of their adult children and they think FG have done fuck all! They also remember FF fucking things up,
When you have Vulture Funds or Investors buying 200 apartments in one go to rent and pay fuck all tax on then you get angry public. That could be 100 couples buying their starter home.
They are also impressed by Eoin OâBroin, Pearse Doherty and Mary Lou who have no IRA baggage. They are not impressed with the likes of Eoghan Murphy or Slimy Harris never mind the likes of Timmy Dooley or Regina Doherty.
SF were the only party who spoke about a rent freeze and championed public houses on public land at affordable prices.
This time they got the message out it wasnât just homelessness, the bum sleeping rough, this time the message was housing! Young people heard affordable home, not council house.
You can guarantee if FF/FG go into coalition then all those things that SF wanted will happen. They will also reduce or wipe out vat which will reduce prices although probably not by the full 13.5%
No matter what SF have changed policy and if it helps to sort out the mess then it will be a good thing. That said, if FF/FG go in together, no matter what, one will get wiped out.
I still remember John OâDonoghue man marking Nora Owen on Justice and nailed her, this was during/after Veronica Guerin was shot. I think he won the election for FF because the economy was igniting at the time.
Even if FF/FG sort out housing, if SF get one opportunity, like OâDonoghue on justice, and it might be health then SF will be the future.
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Another quite apparant observation from the election is the under 35-40âs complete and total absence of faith or respect for the media. Where once you had RTE/Irish Times. Indo and Sindo etc sermonizing ad-nauseum to the masses, disagreeing in parts but all steadfast in upholding their cosy power cartel, there is now a more astute enlightened generation whoâve grown up without them and can see their self serving patronising bullshit for exactly what it is.
The title of the latest IT podcast is a case in point, a deliberate attempt to demonise SF and those who voted for them instead of of a balanced and meaningful portrayal of where they are now and why they got there. The Irish media are as big a loser in this election than their FFG cohorts, they need to realize quick that their day of bullshit is over
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Young people donât buy papers and donât listen to Sean OâRourke. Their views arenât changed by Ruth Dudley Edward or Eilis OâHanlon.
Itâs the fact that they canât afford to buy a house and think they never will!
I spoke to a FF bloke today who use to work with me. He was on some national executive committee of FF a few years ago.
I remember one conversation with him about tax increase SF proposed. He was against a wealth tax and against any additional tax increases for high earners. This lad was on âŹ35k a year yet was adamant that taxes on high earners couldnât increase, heaven forbid a wealth tax!!
I couldnât believe it!
Heâs not with our company anymore but he told me today himself and his bird are still saving hard for a house but still canât afford one. I presume he thinks FF will deliver it!
He specifically mentioned abolishing Vat so I presume that is being mentioned by FF to reduce house prices.
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From what I seen of him, heâd struggle to strike a match let alone torch a gaff
On houses ya bollix!
Tell your mate he has my vote so
This is FF, reduce/abolish vat and Developer profit goes up!!
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They are kicking the can down the road. I think FFG are gambling on making progress on housing and health while in government which might slow Sinn Feins gallop. The alternative is a coalition with Sinn Fein which in FFG is the greater of two evils.
FF shape shifterâs - MM not to be trusted at all at least with regards to Leo the Langer everyone knew/ knows what an utter bag of shite he is and will be,MM is a right shauneen and would stiff his ma to become the chieftain/ Taoiseach
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The libel action mention was when Willie was going around saying Quinlivan was running a brothel. Willie denied saying it but the Limerick Leader produced a tape.